Which NFL Teams Will Draft QB in 1st Round? | Prediction Market Odds for Raiders, Jets, Cardinals

Once the season ends, attention swings quickly to the draft for teams looking to rebuild, which leads us to a simple yet critical question: Which NFL teams will draft a quarterback in the first round?

There are so many quarterback-hungry teams atop the 2026 NFL draft odds, but a few stand out more than the rest.

🏈 Which teams will draft a quarterback?

Latest prices via Polymarket as of Tuesday, Jan. 6; subject to change.

🏈 Which quarterbacks are favored to be first-round picks?

A whole lot can change amid the often chaotic buildup to the draft that's filled with smoke and misdirection. But for now Fernando Mendoza, the 2025 Heisman Trophy odds winner, is the unquestioned front-runner to be selected first overall.

He's on an island unto himself at -450 in the odds for who will go first overall, as is Oregon star signal-caller Dante Moore at +450 in second. Those two are sure to be the first two quarterbacks off the board on April 23 in Pittsburgh, with the likes of Alabama's Ty Simpson possibly selected later in the opening round.

🏈 Favorites to draft a quarterback in 2026

🏴‍☠️ Las Vegas Raiders

The Raiders' passing offense finished 28th while averaging 167.7 yards per game. That contributed greatly to an unwatchable offense that ended up last leaguewide in points per contest at 14.2, over two points lower than any other club.

Central to the Raiders' passing woes was the play of Geno Smith, the veteran who collapsed while throwing 19 touchdown passes and 17 interceptions, with the latter a single-season high since 2013, his rookie campaign.

Smith and other Raiders QBs being under constant duress didn't help matters, with the Raiders allowing a league-worst 64 sacks. Plenty of pass-blocking help is needed too, but a top-tier passer is the clear priority.

✈️ New York Jets

The Jets' quarterback depth chart is in shambles, and they'll soon unsurprisingly part ways with Justin Fields, according to ESPN's Rich Cimini.

The reason for that is a blend of his play (6.2 yards per attempt this season), injury-prone ways (only nine games played), the team's draft position at No. 2, and Fields' contract (due $20 million in 2026).

The Jets posted just 140.3 passing yards per game this season, which was nearly 25 yards lower than any other squad. That's what happens with Fields is predictably floundering, and beyond him the parade of mediocrity continued with Tyrod Taylor and Brady Cook.

With Mendoza almost certainly off the board, the Jets will need Dante Moore to be the answer. He boasts athleticism similar to Fields, but Moore is fresh off completing 72.9% of his pass attempts throughout the regular season at Oregon.

🌵 Arizona Cardinals

The Arizona Cardinals will be in a tricky position with Mendoza and Moore likely gone, and the value probably not right to take any other passer at No. 3.

The team will no doubt draft a quarterback early somehow. The Kyler Murray experience seems to have run its course, and as impressive as Jacoby Brissett was at times this past season, a 33-year-old journeyman isn't a long-term solution.

Brissett is more than capable of being a reliable veteran bridge to whoever assumes the position long term in Arizona. Perhaps that's Alabama's Ty Simpson if the Cardinals quite justifiably choose to trade back and get a bounty for the No. 3 pick while addressing their many needs elsewhere.

📋 2026 NFL Draft order: Full 1st-round picks for all 32 teams

First 18 picks are finalized; final 14 picks determined by playoff finish.

1. Las Vegas Raiders (2-14)
2. New York Jets (3-14)
3. Arizona Cardinals (3-14)
4. Tennessee Titans (3-14)
5. New York Giants (4-13)
6. Cleveland Browns (5-12)
7. Washington Commanders (5-12)
8. New Orleans Saints (6-11)
9. Kansas City Chiefs (6-11)
10. Cincinnati Bengals (6-11)
11. Miami Dolphins (7-10)
12. Dallas Cowboys (7-8-1)
13. Los Angeles Rams (via Atlanta Falcons, 8-9)
14. Baltimore Ravens (8-9)
15. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-9)
16. New York Jets (via Indianapolis Colts, 8-9)
17. Detroit Lions (9-8)
18. Minnesota Vikings (9-8)
19. Carolina Panthers (8-9)
20. Dallas Cowboys (via Green Bay Packers, 9-7-1)
21. Pittsburgh Steelers (10-7)
22. Los Angeles Chargers (11-6)
23. Philadelphia Eagles (11-6)
24. Buffalo Bills (12-5)
25. Chicago Bears (12-5)
26. San Francisco 49ers (12-5)
27. Houston Texans (12-5)
28. Cleveland Browns (via Jacksonville Jaguars, 13-4)
29. Los Angeles Rams (13-4)
30. New England Patriots (14-3)
31. Denver Broncos (14-3)
32. Seattle Seahawks (14-3)