Which NFL Head Coaches Will Be Fired? | Prediction Market Odds for Harbaugh, Kafka & More

Pink slips are flying. Pete Carroll is reportedly out in Las Vegas, joining Kevin Stefanski (Cleveland Browns) and Raheem Morris (Atlanta Falcons) as coaches who have been given their walking papers since the dust settled on the NFL regular season. Some big names still feature on prediction markets for which NFL head coaches will be fired as the fallout continues.  

While Mike Kaffa (New York Giants) and Mike McCoy (Tennessee Titans) are the leading choices now, a couple of long-term AFC North faces remain on the hot seats. Mike Tomlin of the Pittsburgh Steelers (6%) seems safe following their dramatic clinching of a playoff spot, while John Harbaugh (21%) is again under the spotlight.

❌ Which NFL head coaches will be fired?

Latest prices via Polymarket as of Monday, Jan. 5; subject to change. Must be fired or otherwise vacate their position by Feb. 28, 2026.

With Carroll out, Mike McCoy of the Titans has jumped to the top of the table as likely to be fired. McCoy has held the interim tag in Music City since Brian Callahan was fired. Tennessee went 2-9 during his tenure, not exactly a stellar resume-builder.

Another interim coach seems unlikely to hold onto their post, with the New York Giants' Mike Kafka sitting second on the table. Rumors have swirled about the Giants' coaching search, so it wouldn't be shocking to see a new face on the sidelines in New York.

🐦‍⬛ Will John Harbaugh be fired this year?

Both Harbaugh brothers have made their way onto the list of possible coaches to be let go this year, though neither is seeing particularly high odds. John joined the fray following the Ravens' elimination from postseason contention in Week 18, and now has a 21% chance to receive a pink slip.

Ravens fans have been calling for Harbaugh's job for years, though the organization has afforded a long leash to the Super Bowl-winning coach despite a string of early exits in the postseason. That leeway could be gone after another disappointing season for Baltimore.

Earlier on Sunday before the Ravens' loss, ESPN's Adam Schefter reported that Harbaugh's future was "up in the air" following the conclusion of this season.

🏗️ Will Mike Tomlin be fired this year?

While Tomlin is arguably the most respected active head coach in the NFL, he's been the subject of rumors and speculation all season long about whether he'll return to Pittsburgh following 19 seasons with the Steelers - none ending with a losing record.

He'll extend that streak this season after guiding Pittsburgh to 10 wins and its first division title since 2020. Yet Tomlin hasn't won a playoff game since 2016, and Sports Illustrated's Albert Breer reported this week that the eventual Hall of Fame coach could seek a "reset" with a year away from coaching before starting fresh with another team.

It may feel like a long shot, but it's hard to ignore the smoke that we've seen for weeks now across multiple reports and outlets. For now, his Polymarket odds suggest just a 6% chance Tomlin moves on from the Steelers - I'd be all over that price personally.

🔮 Prediction for which NFL head coach will be fired

That's three-for-three from the top of the prediction market table.

There's not a great deal of value at the top of the board with Mike McCoy (94 cents), there might still be some found on Giants interim head coach Mike Kafka. 

While Kafka has interviewed for head coaching gigs before - with the Chicago Bears and New Orleans Saints last year - he was unable to secure those jobs. And it doesn't seem like the Giants are all-in on their former Offensive Coordinator, as the brass has been conducting interviews with potential candidates to take over on the sidelines.

Prediction: Mike Kafka to be fired ("yes" at 88 cents)