NFL Betting Strategy Today: How We'd Spend $100 (or Any Amount) on NFL Week 3

Though my record from last week’s six picks may say 3-3, I budgeted correctly while winning each of my top three picks for a near $40 profit. That gives us a surplus of money for our NFL betting strategy for Week 3.

My NFL picks for Week 3 focus on the Bears and Ravens in a strong teaser spot while also backing Vikings wide receiver Justin Jefferson’s chances of scoring a touchdown despite playing with a backup quarterback this week.

Here is how I’d split up a $100 bankroll for Week 3. You can scale these picks to whatever your budget is for all of your NFL predictions for Week 3.

💵 NFL betting guide: Week 3

NFL expert picks for Week 3; check the latest NFL odds for the best odds.

Want to calculate these bets for your own budget? Check out our odds converter to determine the profit for any wager amount.

🐻 + 🐦‍⬛ Bears +6.5 / Ravens +1.5 (6-point teaser) ($30)

Classify this teaser under the category of “what do the oddsmakers know with these lines?” 

The Bears have allowed 73 points in their last five quarters and have lost 12 of their last 13 games overall, but they are still a slight favorite across the best sports betting sites against a Cowboys team that scored 40 points in an overtime victory.

The Ravens are as high as 5.5-point favorites over a Lions team that just turned in their third game of 50-plus points since the start of last season. By comparison, the rest of the NFL teams have two such games in that span.

Instead of falling prey to the overreactions from last week, I am trusting the oddsmakers and their sharp lines, while moving two of the most head-scratching lines six points apiece in my favor.

DraftKings is my go-to sportsbook for this teaser, as it is the only one dealing the Bears as underdogs and Baltimore at -4.5 prior to involving the six points from the teaser. With a 57.45% implied probability, a $30 winning wager would net $22.22 in profits.

⬇️ Steelers-Patriots Under 44.5 ($25)

The best NFL betting sites make their money by capitalizing on the public’s general overreactions each week. Case in point: after Unders went 12-4 in Week 1, 10 of the 12 games in the Sunday’s early and late afternoon windows cashed the Over. 

This game sets up well for contrarian bettors, as the public will harp on Pittsburgh’s defense that ranks 23rd in passing yards per game allowed and 28th or worse in rushing defense, yards per play, and points per game allowed. Meanwhile, New England is coming off its first 30-point game since October 2022, so this is a great time to sell high on the Patriots' offense, as well.

With the implied probability as high as 54.13% based on the steepest -118 odds to cash the Under, DraftKings offers a much more affordable -108 price at the same number, which would net $23.15 in profits on my $25 wager.

⬇️ Raiders team total Under 21.5 ($20)

The total for Sunday’s Raiders-Commanders game plummeted from an opening number of 47.5 to 44.5, with Jayden Daniels' questionable status playing a key role there. However, I do not believe oddsmakers accounted enough for Las Vegas’ pedestrian showing of 29 points and two total touchdowns through the first two weeks.

If Daniels does not suit up for Washington, expect a much more ground-and-pound and ball-control approach with Marcus Mariota under center.

Meanwhile, a Raiders offensive line that has allowed 32 pressures and seven sacks thus far remains a big liability. The team cannot expect quarterback Geno Smith to limit turnovers (four through two games) if he remains under constant duress.

Las Vegas’ team total of 20.5 is juiced as high as -122 (carrying a 54.95% implied probability) to the Under. Thus, for not much worse of a price, I am backing its alternate team total Under north of a key betting number at 21.5 at DraftKings, where my winning $20 wager would net $14.81 in profits.

🟣 Justin Jefferson anytime touchdown scorer ($10)

Among the teams dealing with injuries to starting quarterbacks, the dropoff from J.J. McCarthy to Carson Wentz in Minnesota may not be as big as it seems. McCarthy has the NFL's second-worst QBR (20.1) through two weeks, and his four turnovers are also tied for the second-most.

Justin Jefferson is too good of a receiver to have just seven catches through two games, though one of those was a touchdown. The good news is his 41.5% receiving-yard share is the fifth-highest among wide receivers, and his 13 targets lead the team.

In 2019, Wentz became the first quarterback in NFL history to throw for 4,000 yards without any wide receiver totaling more than 500 yards. But Wentz has never thrown to a receiver as talented as Jefferson, and his ceiling for touchdowns is raised with Aaron Jones Sr. likely missing this game with a hamstring injury.

Compared to Jefferson’s +120 odds with a 45.45% implied probability on the other end of the market, my $10 wager through DraftKings’ +150 would net $3 more in profits ($15 versus $12).

⬆️ Patrick Mahomes Over 245.5 passing yards ($10)

In last week’s loss, Patrick Mahomes was held below 200 passing yards for the third time in the last eight games (including the playoffs). But Kansas City’s rushing issues - and the fact that the Giants just allowed 38 completions and 361 yards to Dak Prescott - have me backing the Over on Mahomes’ passing yards.

Chiefs running backs averaged 2.9 yards per rush against the Eagles (26th among running back corps in Week 2) and ranked 29th in yards after contact per rush (1.28). Head coach Andy Reid is not likely to let his team fall to 0-3 without giving his quarterback several opportunities to make plays.

There is also a chance New York’s bad luck in the secondary will persist, as Prescott tied a career-high with four completions of less than a 30% implied probability of being completed last week.

The best return on this $10 wager comes from BetMGM. Through its -115 odds, a winning $10 wager would net $8.70 in profits.

⚔️ Titans ML ($5)

I would normally save more of my $100 budget on a moneyline play I felt good about, but this is nothing more than a flier on a home underdog who did not even make my NFL upset picks for Week 3. 

Indianapolis is 2-0 for the first time since 2009 after scoring on 82% of its offensive drives and having yet to punt. Quarterback Daniel Jones’ performance against the Broncos blitz was impressive last week, as he completed 16-of-24 passes for 267 yards and a touchdown when blitzed on 68% of his dropbacks. 

Let’s see what Jones and the Colts offense can do outdoors in their first road game. It will be interesting to see what Cam Ward is capable of when not under constant pressure. He is the first top overall draft pick since David Carr in 2002 to be sacked 10-plus times in two games to start a career.

This potential $8.60 cash at a 36.76% implied probability through FanDuel’s +172 odds will be even sweeter knowing Tennessee enters this one amid an eight-game losing streak and five-game home losing streak.

Most popular NFL bets today

Here are the most popular NFL predictions today, based on ticket count at BetMGM as of Sunday morning:

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