NFL Week 18 Scenarios, Stakes & Playoff Matchups | What to Expect in Final Week
Featuring two divisional title games and one that comes close, the final slate of the season promises to be chock-full of excitement, intrigue, and heartbreak as I delve into the NFL Week 18 scenarios.
As part of the NFL predictions for Week 18, I've highlighted each team's probabilities, along with projecting next week's Wild Card Round matchups.
🏈 AFC Week 18 scenarios
🔢 AFC playoff seeding probabilities
| Team | 1 seed | 2 seed | 3 seed | 4 seed | 5 seed | 6 seed | 7 seed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. Broncos (13-3) | 82% | 6% | 12% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 2. Patriots (13-3) | 15% | 69% | 16% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 3. Jaguars (12-4) | 3% | 25% | 58% | 0% | 6% | 7% | <1% |
| 4. Steelers (9-7) | 0% | 0% | 0% | 40% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 5. Texans (11-5) | 0% | 0% | 14% | 0% | 68% | 15% | 3% |
| 6. Chargers (11-5) | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 5% | 38% | 57% |
| 7. Bills (11-5) | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 21% | 40% | 39% |
| ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- |
| 9. Ravens (8-8) | 0% | 0% | 0% | 60% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
1. Broncos (13-3)
Lock it in: Thanks to facing a Los Angeles Chargers team that will be resting more influential players than it will start, the Broncos should enter the playoffs as the AFC's No. 1 seed.
That would mean a bye in the first round and a palpable home-field advantage in the Mile High City for as long as they remain alive and kicking, excluding, of course, the Super Bowl.
If they don't take care of business at home against the Chargers' reserve team, they can drop to the No. 2 or No. 3 seed. That feels about as unlikely as the Carolina Panthers winning the Super Bowl.
2. Patriots (13-3)
I doubt many foresaw the Week 17 MVP odds transformation coming, with Drake Maye catapulting ahead of Matthew Stafford. But isn't that why we love football so much?
Well, I'm sure I'm not the first to tell you this, but don't bank on the Miami Dolphins pulling off that kind of surprise at a freezing cold Gillette Stadium against the New England Patriots on Sunday. With a win, the likelihood of which FanDuel has at 87%, the Patriots will lock up the No. 2 seed unless Denver implodes.
3. Jaguars (12-4)
The entire spectrum is possible for the Jacksonville Jaguars. They can still win the AFC or finish as low as seventh. However, the probabilities suggest they will remain in third place.
Only the Tennessee Titans remain between them and winning the AFC South. A victory secures third place in the conference at the worst. They could finish higher if New England or Denver lay an egg in the season finale, which I don't foresee happening.
4. Steelers (9-7)
Win or go home. That's it, that's all for Mike Tomlin and his men.
5. Texans (11-5)
With the Chargers set to rest players, the Houston Texans' most likely outcome is to remain in fifth place. They can, however, finish in fifth, sixth, or seventh.
If they beat the Riley Leonard-led Indianapolis Colts, which they should, and the Jaguars lose to the Titans, which they shouldn't, Houston will win the AFC South and finish in the No. 3 spot.
6. Chargers (11-5)
No Justin Herbert. No bueno for their chances to upset a highly motivated, division-leading Broncos on the road.
In fact, I expect the Bills, who will start Josh Allen and all their healthy first-string players against the New York Jets at home, to leapfrog the Chargers in the standings.
The Chargers can finish fifth, sixth, or seventh, but they'd need to win and have the Texans lose to secure the No. 5 seed. That has a 5% chance of happening, according to NFL.com's probabilities.
7. Bills (11-5)
Like the Texans and Chargers, the Bills can finish in fifth, sixth, or seventh. However, sixth or seventh are the most likely outcomes. I'm earmarking the No. 6 seed for the Bills, who should have no trouble dispensing a woeful and fed-up Jets team at Highmark Stadium.
They will be even more motivated to snatch the sixth seed, as it would likely toss the Patriots under the bus, forcing them to face the Chargers in the Wild Card Round.
9. Ravens (8-8)
Baltimore is in the same boat as Pittsburgh, its loathed Week 18 Sunday Night Football adversary. Win or face an inquest outlining everything that went wrong this season. It might take the duration of the offseason to cover that extensive list.
🏠️ Win-or-go-home AFC North title game
- The Baltimore Ravens vs. Pittsburgh Steelers SNF tilt will decide the AFC North, and the loser will have the entire offseason, maybe much longer in Aaron Rodgers' case, to rue the season finale defeat
- Here's why I backed the visitors in my Ravens vs. Steelers prediction
🃏 AFC projected Wild Card Round matchups
1) No. 2 Patriots vs. No. 7 Chargers
Take a look at my NFL picks against the spread for Week 18, and you'll see why I expect the Patriots and Chargers to meet. If this matchup does come to fruition, I foresee an upset, with Herbert finally securing his first playoff victory.
2) No. 3 Jaguars vs. No. 6 Bills
I've backed the Jaguars and Bill to cover the spread in Week 18, which would likely lead to their coming together in the playoffs. This matchup would favor the visiting Bills, and I'd back them to win.
Our Sean Tomlinson agrees as he backs the Bills in the Wild Card Weekend look-ahead odds.
3) No. 4 Ravens vs. No. 5 Texans
If Lamar Jackson is healthy, I like this home matchup for the Ravens. Yes, they would be facing one of the most formidable defenses in the league, but Jackson is battle-tested enough now in the postseason to overcome this first hurdle.
Speaking of that Houston defense, I'm expecting it to keep Leonard and the Colts offense to under the 13.5-point total (-113).
🪓 What do eliminated AFC teams have to play for?
8. Colts (8-8)
Finishing with a winning record after their 7-1 start would hardly be seen as a consolation for Colts fans, but it's better than the alternative. It will also mark Riley Leonard's first regular-season start under center. That's an important milestone in the rookie's development.
10. Dolphins (7-9)
Linebackers Bradley Chubb, Jordyn Brooks and cornerback Rasul Douglas have done enough individually to earn multiple incentives. However, to cash in on them, the defense must finish in the top 20. It's currently ranked 21st, so expect a spirited outing.
11. Bengals (6-10)
Joe Burrow is playing, which adds some luster to the Bengals' season finale against the Browns. Ja'Marr Chase needs 10 catches to break his own single-season receptions record. Chase Brown is 53 yards away from his first 1,000-yard season, while Tee Higgins will set a career high in TD receptions if he gets one.
12. Chiefs (6-10)
The Chiefs' swan song provides an opportunity to have a more in-depth look at third-string QB Chris Oladokun, who is looking for his first win. Playing the Las Vegas Raiders allows Andy Reid and Co. the opportunity to see how the 28-year-old performs against the league's worst team.
13. Browns (6-10)
Ordinarily, there would be nothing to entice neutrals to watch the Browns and Bengals in Week 18. However, Myles Garrett is one sack away from setting the all-time mark. He has 22 sacks entering proceedings, two of which he accrued in Week 1 against Joe Burrow, who will start.
14. Titans (3-13)
While projected to secure the fourth pick in the 2026 draft, Tennessee's range is from the second to the seventh pick. The Titans will play their usual starters, including Cam Ward. Running back Tony Pollard requires 66 rushing yards to receive a $250,000 incentive. He'll add $200,000 to that total with 2 TDS.
15. Jets (3-13)
The Jets are likely to secure the second (37%) or third (55%) draft pick. Undrafted QB Brady Cook will remain under center despite Tyrod Taylor's return, with the franchise clearly eyeing the highest possible pick.
16. Raiders (2-14)
With an 83% chance of securing the No. 1 draft pick, the Raiders will use Week 18 as a chance to further evaluate Kenny Pickett and Aidan O'Connell further (as if that's needed). No reading between the lines needed: They want that first overall pick desperately.
🏈 NFC Week 18 scenarios
🔢 NFC playoff seeding probabilities
| Team | 1 seed | 2 seed | 3 seed | 4 seed | 5 seed | 6 seed | 7 seed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. Seahawks (13-3) | 54% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 46% | 0% | 0% |
| 2. Bears (11-5) | 0% | 69% | 31% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 3. Eagles (11-5) | 0% | 31% | 69% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 4. Panthers (8-8) | 0% | 0% | 0% | 76% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 5. 49ers (12-4) | 46% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 15% | 39% | 0% |
| 6. Rams (11-5) | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 39% | 61% | 0% |
| 7. Packers (9-6-1) | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 100% |
| ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- |
| 9. Buccaneers (7-9) | 0% | 0% | 0% | 24% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
🏆️ NFC West title game: Seattle Seahawks vs. San Francisco 49ers
- Look up the word consequential in the dictionary, and Google better display this Saturday prime-time matchup, which is for all, and I do mean all of the marbles
- The winner takes the NFC West and secures the No. 1 seed in the NFC, providing home-field advantage throughout the playoffs
- That reward is especially alluring for the 49ers, who would then get to play the Super Bowl at home, if they make it
- I break the matchup down in my Seahawks vs. 49ers prediction
1. Seahawks (13-3)
The Seahawks, currently the Super Bowl odds betting favorite, can finish as low as fifth, which will happen if they lose to the 49ers.
2. Bears (11-5)
The task at hand got all the more difficult for the Chicago Bears when Detroit Lions head coach Dan Campbell announced that most of his starters will play, including Jared Goff.
That said, Chicago will secure the No. 2 seed with a win over the Lions. If they lose and the Philadelphia Eagles beat the Washington Commanders, the Bears will slip to third.
3. Eagles (11-5)
It's simple for the Eagles: win against the Commanders, and so long as the Bears lose, they will jump into second. A loss or a Bears win will keep them in third.
4. Panthers (8-8)
The Panthers vs. Buccaneers tilt is no longer a true win-or-go-home affair. That's due to the Atlanta Falcons' surprising MNF win over the Los Angeles Rams, which has made life markedly more murky for the Buccaneers.
Carolina will win the NFC South and advance to the playoffs as the No. 4 seed with a victory in Tampa, Fla., which I covered in my Panthers vs. Buccaneers prediction. They will also win the division if the Buccaneers win and the Falcons beat the New Orleans Saints at home on Sunday.
5. 49ers (12-4)
A loss against the Seahawks could drop the 49ers down to the No. 6 seed by the end of the weekend. However, for that to occur, the Rams must rebound and beat the Arizona Cardinals at home on Sunday.
Our Mike Spector doesn't believe it will come to that, though, which he discusses in his NFL upset picks for Week 18.
👑 NFC West the crown of the NFL
- No division in NFL history has ever seen three teams finish a season with 13 wins
- If the 49ers and Rams win in Week 18, the NFC West will become the first division to accomplish that feat
6. Rams (12-4)
The Rams won't have anything to play for on Sunday and will finish in sixth if the 49ers upset the Seahawks on Saturday. If the Seahawks beat the 49ers, the Rams will jump into the No. 5 seed with a victory over the Cardinals.
7. Packers (9-6-1)
The Packers are locked into seventh place for the Wild Card Round. They will face the Bears or Eagles in the wild card round.
9. Buccaneers (7-9)
The Buccaneers have no one to blame for their demise but themselves. But there's still a way out of the mire they've created, although it's a distinctly more challenging path than it was before the Falcons upset the Rams.
Tampa Bay must beat Carolina at home on Saturday and hope for the Falcons to lose on Sunday to the surging Saints. That's the only way they escape from the quicksand in which they're ensnared.
🃏 NFC projected Wild Card Round matchups
1) No. 2 Eagles vs. No. 7 Packers
With the latest development out of Motown revolving around Dan Campbell's decision to start key personnel, I fear the worst for the Bears. The Lions will play loose, free, and unfettered, which is why I'm leaning on them to upset the Bears (+130) and force them into the No. 3 slot.
That would allow Philly to take the No. 2 slot and face the Packers. In that scenario, I'm backing the Eagles to overcome the Packers in the playoffs in consecutive seasons.
2) No. 3 Bears vs. No. 6 Rams
I'm expecting the Rams to conjure a sweet bounce-back outing and cover the -7.5 spread at home (-105 at FanDuel) against the Cardinals.
The Rams would then, based on these projections, travel to the Windy City, hoping for better weather than what Philly had in store last season. I don't love this matchup for the Bears, who will face the perceived MVP before he endured a calamitous first half in Atlanta.
While inclement weather would invariably favor the Bears, I would back the Rams until news of a potential blizzard and plummeting temperatures alters my thinking. When the time comes, keep track of the forecast by checking out our weekly NFL weather report.
3) No. 4 Panthers vs. No. 5 Seahawks
This is where the Panthers' fairytale would come to a crashing halt. The Seahawks are too elite in every phase, and I can't see Carolina staying within the spread, let alone winning outright.
🪓 What do eliminated NFC teams have to play for?
8. Vikings (8-8)
It doesn't make sense to rush J.J. McCarthy back for the meaningless Week 18 clash against the Packers. With that in mind, I expect the club to use the season finale as another opportunity to look at undrafted rookie Max Brosmer, who picked up his first win last week at home against the Lions.
9. Lions (8-8)
It appears Campbell won't let the devil on his shoulder, manifesting as a superior draft pick, get in the way of choosing his best starting team. He wants the season to end on a high note, which centers around sweeping the season series against their bitter NFC North rivals.
10. Cowboys (7-8-1)
The Cowboys have made it clear that they will play their starters against the G-Men.
12. Falcons (7-9)
Kirk Cousins has been a stabilizing force in the backfield for the Falcons recently, as the team has won three in a row and four of the last six games. He and his Falcons have a chance to eliminate the Buccaneers, which would act as a silver lining in an otherwise disappointing season.
Meanwhile, Kyle Pitts Sr. and Tyler Allgeier are pending free agents.
13. Saints (6-10)
The Saints have every intention of playing to win in Atlanta.
Tyler Shough, who has led the Saints to four straight victories and five in the last seven, is quickly becoming a popular figure in the Big Easy. Head coach Kellen Moore won't mess with the chemistry and mojo his team is building for the sake of a few spots in the draft order.
14. Commanders (4-12)
Deebo Samuel will receive a $450,000 bonus if he hits 800 receiving yards, which he's 93 yards shy of. And if he scores two touchdowns, he'll receive a $250,000 bonus for finishing with eight. Von Miller will earn a $1 million bonus if he secures at least one sack, which would leave him with nine on the season.
15. Cardinals (3-13)
It's all about draft order for the Cardinals, who've lost eight in a row and 13 of the last 14. Calais Campbell is also up for a $500,000 bonus if he gets one sack. That would bring his season total to 7.5.
16. Giants (3-13)
The Giants can still secure the No. 1 draft pick, although it's down to a 17% chance after thrashing the Raiders in Week 17.
With the franchise set to hire a new head coach for the 2026 season, the Week 18 game will feel like a tryout for several players, including potential free agent tight end Daniel Bellinger.
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