Vikings vs. Dolphins Picks, Predictions NFL Week 6: Can Minnesota Take Advantage of Miami QB Woes?

Check out our best Vikings vs. Dolphins picks and predictions!
Brenden Schaeffer
Brenden Schaeffer

Last Updated: October 14, 2022 9:51 AM EDT • 3 minute read

The Minnesota Vikings are seeking their fourth straight win in Week 6 while squaring off against the Miami Dolphins. Read on for our Vikings-Dolphins picks.

The Vikings have quietly stormed out to a lead in the NFC North with a 4-1 start. Can the Dolphins make a game of it hosting Minnesota with a third-string quarterback behind center?

Here are our Vikings-Dolphins Week 6 NFL picks (odds via FanDuel Sportsbook and DraftKings Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Vikings vs. Dolphins Game Info

  • Date: Sunday, Oct. 16, 1 p.m. ET
  • TV: FOX
  • Location: Hard Rock Stadium, Miami, FL
  • Weather: 84 degrees, 3% Precipitation, 14-mph winds

Vikings vs. Dolphins Odds

Vikings vs. Dolphins Odds Analysis

The Dolphins opened as one-point favorites, but have seen the line move drastically against them amid the news Skylar Thompson would likely be the team’s starting quarterback. The Vikings are now road favorites, and listed at -3 (-118) at FanDuel and -3 (-115) at DraftKings. The Vikings are getting 64% of the cash and 68% of the tickets.

The total opened at 46.5, but it's come down slightly following the Miami QB news. The number is now 45.5 at both DraftKings and FanDuel. The Under is drawing 82% of the cash, and the Over is getting 55% of the tickets.

Vikings vs. Dolphins Picks

  • Spread: Vikings -3 (-115 via DraftKings) ★★★★
  • Over/Under: Under 45.5 (-110 via DraftKings, FanDuel) ★★★
  • Prop: Dalvin Cook Under 76.5 rushing yards (-115 via DraftKings) ★★★

Vikings vs. Dolphins ATS Pick

Vikings -3 (-115) ★★★★

The Dolphins aren’t a bad team in 2022. But what kind of group are they with undrafted starting QB Thompson? We don’t exactly know the answer, but early returns aren’t favorable.

Thompson was an underwhelming game manager in last week's 40-17 loss to the New York Jets, throwing for 166 yards and an interception. Though the Dolphins have elite receiving weapons Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, it’s difficult to view this offense as the same explosive unit if the quarterback can’t effectively find his receivers.

Miami got good production out of running back Raheem Mostert, but leaning on the run game too heavily to keep pace with the connection between Vikings QB Kirk Cousins and WR Justin Jefferson won't work. Miami allows 276.8 passing yards per game, the NFL's 28th. That passing game advantage should carry Minnesota in this matchup. 

Vikings vs. Dolphins O/U Pick

Under 45.5 (-110) ★★★

I’m counting on Miami's passing offensive struggles to ensure this total doesn’t climb Over. The Dolphins’ inability to move the ball against a mediocre Jets defense shows they might have trouble against Minnesota.

The Vikings rank 14th in scoring defense, allowing 20.4 points per game. They haven’t given up more than 25 points in any meeting yet this season, so the risk of that happening against a UDFA rookie quarterback doesn’t seem particularly high. 

Miami has one of the worst NFL scoring defenses, allowing 26.2 PPG. Although we like Minnesota's passing game to thrive against Miami's secondary, Miami’s D has been significantly better at home. In two home games against the Buffalo BIlls and New England Patriots, the Dolphins allowed just 26 total points.

Vikings vs. Dolphins Prop Pick

Cook Under 76.5 receiving yards (-115) ★★★

Vikings RB Dalvin Cook cleared this yardage total in three of five games this season, and fell short of the mark in one other contest by just half a yard. But I am fading Cook’s total in this game on the Miami run defense's strength, particularly at home.

The Dolphins allow their opponents an average of 110 rushing yards per game, an NFL 13th. Though mobile quarterbacks have shredded the Phins occasionally, they've only given up more than 76.5 yards to an opposing RB once this season.

An opposing back dashed for 50 yards only twice in five games against Miami, and it didn’t happen in either home contest. Though part of this trend is due to the Dolphins' secondary being so attackable, that’s not something that should be any different in Week 6.

Where to Bet on Vikings vs. Dolphins Picks 

Here are our top-rated sportsbooks:

Vikings-Dolphins picks made 10/13/2022 at 8:51 p.m. ET

Written by:
Brenden Schaeffer
Brenden has covered the St. Louis Cardinals as a credentialed baseball writer for KMOV-TV since 2016. His sports writing has appeared in outlets including the Austin American-Statesman and Columbia Daily Tribune. Since 2021, Brenden has co-hosted 'The Big Show' during the afternoon drive for KTGR, the ESPN radio affiliate in Columbia, MO. He has appeared on radio stations around the country, including KMOX, and hosts a daily St. Louis Cardinals podcast. In the sports betting content space, Brenden has covered the NFL, college football, NBA, and college basketball for outlets including SBR since 2019. For his football handicapping, Brenden looks to target player prop markets using his NFL experience, as well as sharp underdog lines in college football. Brenden looks to reference FanDuel for his sports betting articles because of its consistently competitive odds on parlays. FanDuel's boost offerings are also customer-friendly, and its odds on the NFL Same Game Parlay articles he's written for SBR have historically been consistently competitive compared to other books.