NFL Upset Picks for Wild Card Weekend: Ranking Best Underdogs & Moneyline Bets This Week

My NFL upset picks ended the regular season with four straight profitable weeks, including a +225 cash in Week 18. 

Our NFL Wild Card Weekend predictions look to begin the playoffs on a similarly high note, as there should be plenty of value from an underdog perspective with four of the six games having spreads of 3.5 or fewer points.

🏈 NFL Wild Card Weekend upset rankings

See the latest NFL odds and our experts' NFL picks for every game this season.

🚨 Best NFL upset picks for Wild Card Round

Want more NFL betting advice? Check out all of our NFL analysis and expert predictions for every game this season.

Packers over Bears (-108) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

Green Bay became just the fourth team to enter the playoffs on a losing streak of at least four games, but its last win came against Chicago on Dec. 7.

The Packers opened as high as a 1.5-point betting favorite, and I do not agree with the line jumping the fence anywhere that it did based on playoff experience.

When quarterbacks making their first playoff start face a team with experienced postseason signal-callers, the teams with the quarterback making their first postseason start have covered the spread 34% of the time and are 20-40 SU since 2002.

On the point spread, Green Bay is an underdog at both BetMGM and bet365, making it my most confident five-star upset pick.

Jaguars over Bills (+100) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

It is not often a team riding an eight-game winning streak is an underdog in any game, but that is the respect oddsmakers are giving Josh Allen and the Bills in this road matchup.

Trevor Lawrence is playing the best football of his career at the moment, and his 38 total touchdowns are a Jaguars record.

Since Lawrence has playoff experience, I am not putting much stock into the fact that Jacksonville missed the playoffs last year. In fact, teams that missed the playoffs the prior season are 41-21 ATS in playoff matchups since 2017.

Allen is 0-4 SU and ATS on the road in his playoff career, and this is a tough spot for him to earn that elusive first win.

Chargers over Patriots (+170) ⭐⭐⭐

Hats off to Mike Vrabel for a successful first year as Patriots head coach and immediately ending Buffalo’s five-year reign as AFC champions. But forgive me if I am not completely sold on New England just yet, after playing just two teams that ended the regular season with winning records (Bills and Steelers).

That means 13 of New England’s 14 wins came against teams under .500. And Drake Maye falls into the same category as Caleb Williams does with quarterbacks making their first postseason start covering just 34% of games against quarterbacks with playoff experience.

Conversely, Justin Herbert is 3-2 SU against teams that made the playoffs this season. 

Los Angeles was able to rest key players last week, and I expect that move to pay off well with an upset this week.

🚀 NFL Wild Card Round upset parlay