NFL Upset Picks: We Rank Every Underdog Bet for Week 15

We nearly turned in an incredibly profitable week with our NFL upset picks last week, cashing a +110 play and nearly hitting on the Bengals at +225 odds before they squandered a double-digit fourth quarter lead.

In all, six moneyline underdogs won outright last week, including the Saints handing Baker Mayfield his first career loss in 12 games as a favorite of at least seven points. My NFL Week 15 predictions include my favorite upset pick, my best value pick, and my top long-shot underdog

Best NFL upset picks for Week 15

See all of our experts' NFL picks for Week 15 based on the latest NFL odds.

Best NFL underdog bets this week

Commanders over Giants (+115) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Washington enters amid an eight-game losing streak, and is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games against NFC opponents. But the Giants were lifeless and looked like a team not willing to compete in their Week 13 Monday night loss to the New England Patriots. And while coming off a bye late in the season is usually a huge advantage, it could lead to even more sluggishness from a team out of playoff contention.

Washington has won three straight games against its division rivals. Granted, it managed just 206 total yards in last week’s loss to the Minnesota Vikings. But if it gets better pass protection from an offensive line that allowed pressures on nine of Jayden Daniels’ 25 dropbacks, Marcus Mariota has enough experience as a starter this year to pull the upset in a clash of two unmotivated teams.

FanDuel is the only one of our best sports betting sites offering better than +114. Its +115 odds carry a 46.51% implied probability and would net $11.50 in profit if the Commanders beat the Giants for a fourth straight time.

Chargers over Chiefs (+180) ⭐⭐⭐

Kansas City’s playoff odds are down to 12% after Patrick Mahomes turned in a career-low 42.4% completion percentage and his first career game with zero passing touchdowns and three interceptions. While the Los Angeles Chargers' defense may not be as talented as the Houston Texans', Los Angeles may have the overall more complete team.

The Chargers already own a 27-21 Week 1 neutral site victory over Kansas City, a game in which they had more first downs, total yards, and were over 50% on third down. 

From a value perspective, it doesn’t get much better than backing one of the AFC’s five teams with nine-plus wins. That is especially true, given that Mahomes is just 2-6-1 ATS against Justin Herbert, making Herbert his least profitable opposing quarterback against the spread.

The +180 odds offered at BetMGM trump the +160 odds on the low end of the market, and would return $2 more in profit ($18 compared to $16) on a $10 wager if Los Angeles sweeps the season series against Kansas City.

Lions over Rams (+225) ⭐⭐⭐

It is desperation time for a Lions team that is currently one game out of the playoff picture, facing a Rams team on the road that controls their own destiny for the No. 1 seed in the NFC.

The fact that we are able to get a top-five preseason Super Bowl contender at +225 moneyline odds with a healthy Jared Goff under center is worth a play alone. 

Yes, Detroit will have its hands full against Matthew Stafford, who has an NFL-best seven games with three or more passing touchdowns this year. But the Lions are on extended rest, having played last Thursday, and should be brimming with confidence off a game where they had a season-high 20 quarterback pressures.

There is a sizable gap between the +225 odds offered at bet365 and the +200 odds on the low end of the market. If Detroit pulls the upset of the NFC-leading Rams, my $10 winning wager would return $22.50 in profits.

NFL Week 15 underdog parlay

Here are the best parlay odds for our NFL Week 15 upset picks via BetMGM

• Commanders
• Chargers
• Lions

Best odds: +1609 ($10 to win $160.90)

NFL underdog rankings for every Week 15 game