NFL Upset Picks: We Rank Every Underdog Bet for Week 13

Of the four underdogs to win outright last week, my NFL upset picks hit on the second-longest moneyline winner when the Dallas Cowboys (+160) beat the defending champion Philadelphia Eagles on a last-second field goal.

With all 16 teams in action on a loaded Thanksgiving weekend slate, there should be plenty of opportunities to cash in on some underdog winners. My NFL Week 13 predictions include my favorite upset pick, my best value pick, and my top long-shot underdog.

🚨 Best NFL upset picks for Week 13

See all of our experts' NFL picks for Week 13 based on the latest NFL odds.

💰 Best NFL underdog bets this week

🎯  Packers over Lions (+125) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Detroit has trailed by double-digits in five games this season, but only won for the first time in such games last week when it scored 17 unanswered points to beat the Giants in overtime.

The Lions were bailed out by a historic performance from Jahmyr Gibbs, who became just the second player in NFL history with 200-plus rushing yards and at least 10 receptions in a single game. But outside of him, Detroit is hurting for consistent weapons with Kalif Raymond leaving last week’s game with an injury, and tight end Sam LaPorta out for the year.

Detroit’s Pass Block Win Rate was down to 26th entering last week, while Jared Goff’s 9.0 Total QBR ranked 29th when pressured. That is an issue when facing Micah Parsons, who is coming off a game with four quarterback pressures and back-to-back games with multiple sacks.

BetMGM is the only one of the best sports betting sites offering better than +124. If the Packers send Goff and head coach Dan Campbell to their fourth loss in five games together on Thanksgiving, my $10 winning wager would return $12.50 in profits.

🎯  Texans over Colts (+190) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Houston is coming off an upset of a similar magnitude as the line in this game, after holding the Buffalo Bills to a season-low in yards per play (4.9). The Texans' defensive front sacked Josh Allen a career-high eight times, which resulted in the team’s eighth game allowing fewer than 20 points.

Houston has three days of extra rest to prepare for this game against a Colts team that blew an 11-point lead at Kansas City. 

If the Texans can get similar pressure on Daniel Jones as they did on Allen, that bodes well for their chances of an upset. Jones turned in season-worsts in completion percentage (61.3%) and off-target throws last week (23%), and faced his second-highest pressure rate of the season (41%).  

DraftKings is the only one of our best sports betting apps offering a price better than +185. Its +190 odds carry a 34.45% implied probability and would net $19 in profit if Houston ends Indianapolis’ seven-game home winning streak.

🎯  Giants over Patriots (+340) ⭐⭐

At some point, the Giants have to close out a game where they get out to a big lead, right?

New York’s five losses this season when leading by double-digits are tied for the most of any team in a single season in NFL history. It is also the first team to blow a double-digit lead in five road games in a season.

This qualifies as a best long shot underdog wager, as New York has now lost 12 straight road games, the longest streak in franchise history, and takes on a Patriots team that owns the longest active winning streak in the league (nine games).

But New England also lost its best offensive lineman, Will Campbell, to an injury last week. And quarterback Drake Maye was pressured on 33% of dropbacks while being off target on 18% of his passes, his second-worst rate this season.

Will New York firing defensive coordinator Shane Bowen after allowing the third-most yards and points per game make the difference? 

There is a sizable gap between FanDuel’s +340 odds and the +305 odds at the low end of the market. A $10 winning wager would net $34 in profits compared to the $30.50 through the shortest odds.

🚀 NFL Week 13 underdog parlay

Here are the best parlay odds for our NFL Week 13 upset picks via FanDuel:

• Packers
• Texans
• Lions

Best odds: +2659 ($10 to win $265.97)

🏈 NFL underdog rankings for every Week 13 game