NFL Upset Picks: We Rank Every Underdog Bet for Week 12

Of the four underdogs to win outright last week, my NFL upset picks hit on the second-longest moneyline winner when the Carolina Panthers (+168) beat the Atlanta Falcons in overtime.

The gap is widening between the top teams in the league and those vying for the top pick in next year’s draft, as there are three double-digit point spreads among the 14-game slate. But my NFL Week 12 predictions have plenty of other live underdogs to choose from, and I’ve identified my favorite upset pick, my best value pick, and my top long-shot underdog.

🚨 Best NFL upset picks for Week 12

See all of our experts' NFL picks for Week 12 based on the latest NFL odds.

💰 Best NFL underdog bets this week

🎯 Cardinals over Jaguars (+130) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

The Jaguars improved to 3-0 against a competitive AFC West division and are coming off their biggest win (29 points) since 2017. Meanwhile, the Cardinals are 1-7 in their last eight games after starting 2-0, and just committed 17 penalties in their last game (the team’s most in the Super Bowl era).

Despite all of that, Jacksonville is a 2.5-point road favorite in this game, which has the scent of a very fishy line.

The Chargers could only amass six points, 93 passing yards, and 42 rushing yards (all season lows) against Jacksonville. But Arizona had positive signs, like Michael Wilson blowing past his previous career-high of 95 receiving yards with a whopping 185 while taking on a bigger role in place of the injured Marvin Harrison Jr. and Zay Jones.

bet365 is the only one of the best sports betting sites offering better than +124. If the Cardinals win for just the second time at home this season, my $10 winning wager would return $13 in profits.

🎯 Cowboys over Eagles (+160) ⭐⭐⭐

Philadelphia has allowed fewer than 10 points in back-to-back games against NFC contenders (Packers and Lions). But it is also playing with fire, winning six of the eight games in which it has been outgained.

The Eagles are a flawed offensive team. They rank 24th in yards per play (5.1), 25th in yards per game (300.1), tied for 17th in explosive plays (60), and have the league’s worst 3-and-punt rate (31%). 

Dallas’ new defensive additions, specifically Quinnen Williams, made an immediate impact in the Monday Night Football win. And there is a real chance that the Eagles' offense looks out of sorts in the short term with offensive lineman Lane Johnson ruled out with a Lisfranc foot injury.

DraftKings is the only one of our best sports betting apps offering a price better than +155. Its +160 odds carry a 38.46% implied probability and would net $16 in profit if Dallas avoids a second straight regular-season series sweep at the hands of its division rival.

🎯 Vikings over Packers (+250) ⭐⭐

This is a big line as oddsmakers clearly do not have faith in Vikings quarterback J.J. McCarthy. McCarthy was 10-for-22 for 74 yards and 2 interceptions in the first three quarters of last week’s loss to the Bears, while being off target on 32% of his passes.

However, this best long-shot NFL underdog bet is more a fade of the Packers, who are seemingly losing their best skill position players each week. Tight end Tucker Kraft is already out with a season-ending injury, and now leading rusher Josh Jacobs is dealing with a knee injury.

Jacobs has accounted for 57% of the team’s rushing yards and all but one of the team’s rushing touchdowns. With Green Bay ranking 23rd in Run Block Win Rate, Emanuel Wilson and the fellow backup running backs may not be able to overcome that. 

This is still a Minnesota team that won at Detroit three games ago, while Green Bay has head-scratching losses at Cleveland and at home to Carolina.

There is a sizable difference between FanDuel’s +250 odds and the +230 odds on the low end of the market. A $10 winning wager would net $25 in profits compared to the $23 through the shortest odds.

🚀 NFL Week 12 underdog parlay

Here are the best parlay odds for our NFL Week 12 upset picks via FanDuel:

• Cardinals
• Cowboys
• Vikings

Best odds: +1844 ($10 to win $184.43)

🏈 NFL underdog rankings for every Week 12 game