NFL Upset Picks Week 8: Ranking Best Moneyline Underdog Predictions

A week after just two NFL underdogs won outright, I am hoping to take advantage of a more unsettled week as part of my NFL upset picks. 

My NFL picks begin by backing the trend of underdogs in prime-time games finding success. I add two near-touchdown underdogs to pull off upsets in my NFL predictions for Week 8. 

🏈 NFL underdog rankings: Week 8 upset predictions

NFL upset picks for Week 8; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5 star scale.

🚨 Best NFL upset picks for Week 8

NFL upset picks based on the best NFL odds for each matchup; live odds included below each prediction.

🎯 Vikings (+156) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

After the Bengals beat the Steelers last Thursday night, underdogs improved to 7-1 SU in the previous eight NFL prime-time games. In addition, underdogs entered Week 7 with a winning record in night games through six weeks for the first time since 2002.

I am adding the Vikings as a four-star upset play to kick off Week 8, especially because of how banged up the Chargers' offensive line is at the moment. Los Angeles already entered last week ranked 28th in pass-block win rate. Now I have real concerns about how well the offensive line can hold up against a Brian Flores defense that entered Week 7 blitzing at the third-highest rate and allowed the second-lowest QBR against the blitz.

Minnesota’s three losses have already equaled its total from all of last regular season. But the Vikings let a winnable game slip away last week after setting for five field goals amid their six red-zone trips against the Eagles.

There is a sizable difference between Minnesota’s +156 odds at FanDuel and its +145 odds at a 40.82% implied probability on the opposite end of the market. A $10 winning wager would net $15.60 in profits compared to the $14.50 through the shortest odds.

📊 Live Vikings vs. Chargers odds

🎯 Browns (+295) ⭐⭐

New England’s four-game winning streak is the team’s longest since 2021. In addition, its 5-2 start is its best over the first seven games of a season since 2019.

While the hire of head coach Mike Vrabel is paying immediate dividends, Cleveland is worth taking a flier on to pull the road upset with its formula of running the football and playing solid defense. 

Browns running back Quinshon Judkins became the franchise’s first player with at least three rushing touchdowns in a game since 2022. And New England’s pass-happy offense (it ranks in the top four in pass rate over expectation) could play right into Cleveland’s strength, as the defense is tied for the eighth-most sacks.

DraftKings is the only one of the best sports betting sites offering better than +290 odds at a 25.64% implied probability to back the upset. If Cleveland does end New England’s winning streak, my $10 winning wager would return $29.50 in profits.

📊 Live Browns vs. Patriots odds

🎯 Saints (+195) ⭐⭐

The biggest reason for this best NFL upset pick to round out my three-pack of plays is largely because oddsmakers have dropped this line from +6.5 to +4.5, perhaps in the wake of Mike Evans’ injury news.

New Orleans is 1-3 at home this season, but all three losses have been by seven or fewer points. It now has a scheduling advantage over Tampa Bay since the Buccaneers played on Monday night last week. A short week also does not give much of a chance for Tampa Bay’s plethora of injured players outside of Evans to heal in time.

The Saints can build off the fact that they ended the league’s longest active streak of allowing multiple touchdown passes (eight games) by limiting Bears quarterback Caleb Williams to a 57.7% completion percentage, 0-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio, and 19.8 QBR. 

New Orleans will need to start much stronger than it has all season, as it has been outscored 68-16 in the first quarter, and is 0-7 against the first-quarter spread. But after winning the second half last week, Saints quarterback Spencer Rattler is now 6-1 ATS in the second half in his last seven starts.

I am backing the Saints at BetMGM’s +195 price and 33.90% implied odds before the line plummets any further. If New Orleans wins outright, my $10 wager would net $19.50 in profits.

📊 Live Buccaneers vs. Saints odds

💰 Best NFL Week 8 underdog parlay

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