NFL Upset Picks Week 4: Ranking the Best Moneyline Underdog Predictions

Last week saw the biggest NFL upset picks of the season cash, as the Cleveland Browns erased a 10-point fourth-quarter deficit to beat the Green Bay Packers as the 8-point home betting underdog. 

My NFL picks, part of the NFL predictions for Week 4, back the underdog in the NFL’s first Dublin matchup, along with a confident NFC team coming off its first win, and a road ‘dog that showed fight in Week 3. 

🏈 NFL underdog rankings: Week 4 upset predictions

NFL upset picks made Thursday; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5 star scale.

🚨 Best NFL upset picks for Week 4

NFL upset picks based on the best NFL odds for each matchup; live odds included below each prediction.

🎯 Steelers (+130) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Entering last week, the Steelers' defense had recorded just three sacks, allowed 149.5 rushing yards per game and 31.5 points per game.

After recording five sacks, limiting the Patriots to 119 rushing and 4.1 yards per carry, and forcing them into their first five-turnover game since 2008, the veteran group should be brimming with confidence heading overseas.

I am selling high on a Minnesota team that scored its most points in a game (48) since 2015, as defensive touchdowns put the game out of reach early.  

Minnesota has won international games twice in the last three years, and has the best record of any NFL team in such games (4-0). However, this marks the beginning of a tough stretch, as the team plays back-to-back games in a different country.

I am backing a more veteran Steelers squad with fewer questions at quarterback.

DraftKings offers the best value on the neutral-site ‘dogs, as the only one of the best sports betting sites with better than +125 odds. A $10 winning wager at these 43.48% implied odds would net $0.50 more in profits ($13) than the next-best odds of +125 ($12.50).

Our Gary Pearson also backs the Steelers in his NFL moneyline picks for Week 4. 

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📊 Live Vikings vs. Steelers odds

🎯 Bears (-105) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

Either the Cowboys' secondary is among the worst in the league, or Chicago head coach Ben Johnson’s offensive genius is quickly rubbing off on quarterback Caleb Williams.

Williams turned in his first career game with four touchdown passes and zero interceptions in last week’s win. And his connection with wide receiver Rome Odunze is becoming formidable, as Odunze’s four touchdowns are tied for the most by a Bears player through three games of a season.

Pete Carroll’s teams’ success has always been predicated on running the football and playing good defense.

But rookie running back Ashton Jeanty has 47 carries and none for 20-plus yards. Meanwhile, the Raiders' defense just allowed 41 points to a Commanders team that had scored 39 points through the first two weeks and was playing with a backup quarterback who hadn’t started a game since 2022.

Plenty of the best sports betting apps give Chicago a 52.38% implied probability to win the game with moneyline odds at a virtual pick’em. But a winning $10 wager through bet365’s -105 odds returns the best value of $9.52 in profits.

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📊 Live Bears vs. Raiders odds

🎯 Jets (+130) ⭐⭐⭐

Though both the Jets and Dolphins fell to 0-3 last week, they walked away from the losses to division favorites (the Bills and Buccaneers) feeling good about how they competed.

Perhaps Miami’s effort against Buffalo was more impressive, considering New York faced a Tampa Bay team that was without three offensive linemen and top wide receiver Mike Evans by the end of the game.

But the Jets can build off taking a 27-26 lead after trailing 23-6 in the fourth quarter, which suggests they are buying into new head coach Aaron Glenn.

The Dolphins allowed pressure on 49% of dropbacks last week, while Tua Tagovailoa averaged just 4.3 yards per attempt. Miami’s offense could look rusty after a long 10-day layoff, and it is just 5-6 SU with a rest advantage since 2022.

There is a small gap between New York’s +130 odds and its +124 odds on the low end of the market, which carry a 44.64% implied probability of pulling off the upset. At a price of +130, a $10 winning wager would bet $13 in profits if the Jets earn their first victory of the season.

📊 Live Jets vs. Dolphins odds

💰 Best Week 4 underdog parlay

Our NFL player prop odds tool shows the best odds for every market across legal sportsbooks in your area.

❓ NFL upset picks FAQs

What are the best NFL upset picks for [Week X]?

My best NFL upset picks for Week 4 include the Pittsburgh Steelers to beat the Minnesota Vikings, the Chicago Bears to knock off the Las Vegas Raiders, and the New York Jets to win as road underdogs against the Miami Dolphins.

How to read NFL underdog odds

If a team is listed with a plus sign (+) on the moneyline (i.e., +200), that means they’re the underdog. The number tells you how much profit you’d make on a $100 bet. For example, +200 means a $100 wager returns $200 profit (total payout $300). On the point spread, the underdog is shown with positive points (i.e., +7.5). This means they don’t have to win outright - they just need to either win the game or lose by fewer points than the spread. For instance, if the Cowboys are +7.5 against the Eagles and lose 27-21, they "cover" because they lost by only six points.

What makes an underdog?

In NFL betting, an underdog is the team expected to lose, based on oddsmakers' analysis of matchup strength, injuries, recent performance, and betting trends.

The underdog is given plus odds on the moneyline (i.e., +180), meaning a bettor earns more than their stake if they win, and a positive point spread (i.e., +6.5), which gives them extra points to level the field against the favorite. Bettors often target underdogs when they believe the lines undervalue a team’s chances, especially in divisional matchups, weather-affected games, or situations where the favorite may be overhyped.

How to predict an NFL upset?

Predicting an upset in NFL betting often comes down to spotting mismatches and market inefficiencies. Look for underdogs with strong defenses, efficient quarterbacks, or favorable matchups against an opponent’s weaknesses.

Injuries, weather conditions, and short rest can also tilt games in the underdog's favor. If the betting line seems inflated by public bias toward a popular team, it can create value on the underdog - making an upset more likely than the odds suggest.

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