NFL Upset Picks Week 10: Ranking Best Moneyline Underdog Predictions

My NFL upset picks last week hit on underdogs of +105 and +130 odds, and would’ve been a 3-0 sweep if our third pick (the Bengals) did not lose despite scoring 42 points.

Though there are no double-digit underdogs in Week 10, there are three who are getting more than a touchdown. But my NFL picks as part of my NFL predictions for Week 10 have more confidence in other upset picks, including two in primetime games. 

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🏈 NFL underdog rankings: Week 10 upset predictions

NFL upset picks for Week 10; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5 star scale.

🚨 Best NFL upset picks for Week 10

NFL upset picks based on the best NFL odds for each matchup; live odds included below each prediction.

🎯 Jaguars (+105) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

I am rushing to the betting windows to make this play on Jacksonville at plus-money odds as part of my NFL picks, as this line could jump the fence if Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud is ultimately ruled out with a concussion.

Houston did not score a touchdown against the Broncos last week, and only mustered 87 yards of offense in the second half with Davis Mills under center. 

Meanwhile, Jacksonville scored on its final six possessions in regulation last week (three touchdowns, three field goals), and showed it can rely on Travis Etienne Jr. (115 total yards) amid its banged-up wide receiver corps.

Several of the top sports betting sites offer slightly better value at +105 odds (carrying a 48.78% implied probability) than the -102 odds at the low end of the market. Through DraftKings’ +105 odds, a $10 wager would net $10.50 in profits if Jacksonville pulls the upset.

📊 Live Jaguars vs. Texans odds

🎯 Steelers (+140) ⭐⭐⭐

Pittsburgh’s defense in Weeks 1-8 averaged 1.4 takeaways, 5.6 points off turnovers, 112.7 rush yards, and a 62 Total QBR allowed per game. In Week 9, it produced six takeaways, scored 24 points off turnovers, and allowed 55 rush yards and a 13 Total QBR. 

It was an historic performance, as the takeaways and points off turnovers were the second-most in a game under head coach Mike Tomlin. 

Besides the turnovers, Pittsburgh’s success over Indianapolis was largely predicated on bottling up Jonathan Taylor and allowing a season-low 2.9 yards per rush. It also held Daniel Jones to 5-for-13 passing and 65 yards, an interception, and five sacks when pressured. 

Given Los Angeles’ offensive line injuries, the Steelers should similarly frustrate Justin Herbert.

There is a sizable difference between Pittsburgh’s +140 odds at DraftKings and its +125 odds at the opposite end of the market. A $10 winning wager would net $14 in profits compared to the $12.50 through the shortest odds.

📊 Live Steelers vs. Chargers odds

🎯 Eagles (+118) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

I would feel a lot better about this play if Green Bay was not stewing over an inexcusable loss as two-touchdown home favorites to the Panthers last week. But not only did the Packers lose the game, but it lost tight end Tucker Kraft for the season to a torn ACL. Now Green Bay will have to adapt without its team leader in receptions, receiving yards, and touchdowns.

Philadelphia’s offense looked rejuvenated before the bye week. Jalen Hurts turned in his third career game with four touchdown passes and zero interceptions, and Saquon Barkley had his first touchdown of 60-plus yards (he had seven such touchdowns last year).

FanDuel is the only one of the best sports betting apps offering better than +116. If the defending champions pull the upset, my $10 winning wager would return $11.80 in profits.

📊 Live Eagles vs. Packers odds