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NFL Wild Card Weekend Upset Predictions: Late NFC Games Present Chance for Underdogs

Thom Cunningham

Last Updated: January 14, 2024 4:09 PM EST • 3 min 35 sec read.

As we've come to expect by this point, anything can happen over NFL Wild Card Weekend, and we're taking a look at the best NFL wild-card upset predictions based on the leading NFL odds.

Four of the six favorites entered NFL Wild Card Weekend laying less than a touchdown to win their playoff openers, and our best sports betting apps are offering some good value on a pair of underdogs to win outright in the wild-card round.

We've already seen one outright win by an underdog after the Houston Texans (+2.5) demolished the road favorite Cleveland Browns in the first game of the weekend. The Miami Dolphins (+4.5) weren't so fortunate in a blowout loss to the Kansas City Chiefs, but Sunday and Monday bring even more potential upset bids into the equation.

Entering the playoffs with some setbacks, the Philadelphia Eagles are now on the road against a Tampa Bay Buccaneers team that excels in the role of the underdog. Injuries could play a factor there, too, with some of the Eagles' top stars iffy to play.

On the flip side, the Detroit Lions welcome back their former quarterback, Matthew Stafford, in a game that carries a degree of awkwardness for him and Jared Goff, for whom he was traded years ago. That one will likely come down to which QB can take advantage of a shaky defense on the other side.

Let's dive into these two games, focusing on why the underdogs might secure a victory outright.

To accompany all of our NFL predictions for Wild Card Weekend and NFL Wild Card Weekend best bets, here are our best NFL upset picks for Wild Card weekend (odds via our best NFL betting sites; Pick confidence is based on a 1-to-5-star scale).  

NFL upset picks: Wild Card Weekend

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NFL upset predictions

Rams ML (+160 via DraftKings) vs. Lions ⭐⭐⭐

There are a lot of emotions going into this game between both quarterbacks, but we can't weigh that heavily when betting. Looking at the trends, it's hard not to consider the Rams here, as they've covered in six of their past seven games.

The Rams have also won seven of eight games outright, are in the midst of a four-game winning streak, and they've won their last six contests against the NFC. It's true the Lions are ATS darlings after covering 21 of their past 27 games, but a lot of those outings came as underdogs.

If taking the underdog outright worries you, consider the Over instead, which has cashed in six of eight home games for the Lions, including the last four inside Ford Field. Both offenses should be effective, with ample talent from running backs to wide receivers, and quarterbacks who have gone to the Super Bowl.

The total generally sits at 51.5 across our best sportsbooks.

The injury to Sam LaPorta might actually be the difference here. Many wondered why the Lions played their starters in Week 18, and that could turn out to be a mistake from head coach Dan Campbell.

So give me the Super Bowl winning quarterback-coach combo with a healthy supporting cast if you're looking for an underdog outright winner this weekend. 

See our Rams vs. Lions prediction and Rams-Lions NFL player props.

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DraftKings NFL bonus

To help boost your NFL picks for Wild Card Weekend, DraftKings is offering a no-sweat 3+ leg NFL SGP! Just be sure to opt in, place your bet, and don't sweat it out. Offer excludes Ontario.

Buccaneers ML (+135 via bet365) vs. Eagles ⭐⭐⭐

I'm not completely jumping ship on the Eagles as everyone else seems to be right now. But how could you not look at the home underdog Buccaneers? They've won three straight home games as the underdog.

Tampa Bay is playing with one of the best leaders in Baker Mayfield after winning the NFC South following a season when the team was widely picked to finish last. Both Mayfield in the Comeback Player of the Year market and head coach Todd Bowles in the Coach of the Year market have been vastly overlooked all season.

With the Eagles losing five of six games outright and failing to cover the spread in all six of those affairs, this seems like an easy time to consider the underdog. However, the Buccaneers have lost four straight games when facing the NFC East as an underdog, so feel free to play it safe with a spread pick.

The running game will likely be the difference in this clash, and the Eagles haven't come close to mirroring their 2023 form. Rachaad White will need to play well for the Buccaneers to pull off the win.

White has scored a touchdown in four straight games when his team was playing as the underdog during a win. He's also scored in six of seven affairs, and White now faces an Eagles defense that's been looking vulnerable. 

Our Eagles vs. Buccaneers prediction and Eagles-Buccaneers NFL player props dive further into Monday's final game of Wild Card Weekend.

NFL upset picks made Thursday at 12:19 p.m. ET

Here are our best NFL betting sites:

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Written By:
Thom Cunningham
Thom Cunningham has been working in sports media for 15 years covering over 30 different leagues and betting events. He is a former Editorial Production Manager, Digital Content Producer, and statistician for various betting entities and organizations such as Spectrum Sports and Stats Perform, LLC. He has appeared on VSIN and BetMGM Tonight to share his wide range of sports betting knowledge.