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NFL Player Props & Best Bets Wild Card Weekend: Will St. Brown Find End Zone in Shootout?

Mike Spector

Last Updated: January 14, 2024 4:08 PM EST • 4 min 47 sec read.

NFL best bets
NFL best bets

The NFL postseason continues with two playoff games apiece on Sunday and Monday, and we offer our best NFL player props and best bets based on the best NFL odds.   

We've already seen the drama unfold in the first few games of NFL Wild Card Weekend, and there are no shortage of storylines for the remaining slate - including a pair of revenge games for some of the top stars in the postseason following Saturday's victories by the Houston Texans and Kansas City Chiefs.

In the first game on Sunday, Dallas Cowboys head coach Mike McCarthy goes up against his former team in the Green Bay Packers. Hours later, Los Angeles Rams QB Matthew Stafford and Detroit Lions QB Jared Goff square off after being traded for each other three years ago.

To accompany our NFL Wild Card Weekend predictions, here are our NFL player props, best bets, and NFL picks for Wild Card Weekend (odds via our best NFL betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

NFL best bets: Wild Card Weekend

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Wild Card Weekend NFL schedule and odds

(Odds via DraftKings)

NFL player props for Wild Card Weekend

Amon-Ra St. Brown anytime touchdown scorer vs. Rams (+120 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐

The Detroit Lions are field-goal favorites in a game with the highest projected total of the weekend (O/U 51.5). They will likely need to score points when facing a Los Angeles Rams offense that ranked second in the NFL in points per game (31.3) from Weeks 12-17 (we excluded Week 18 because the Rams rested starters). Given that DraftKings set Detroit’s team total number of touchdowns at O/U 3.5, we expect the Lions to find the endzone plenty. Amon-Ra St. Brown could be the biggest beneficiary of tight end Sam LaPorta’s knee injury last week.

St. Brown has averaged 25.5 fantasy points per game from the start of Week 15, largely because of his 30% target share and 36% air yard share in that span. He has eight or more targets in five consecutive games and a touchdown catch in four straight. 

This is a three-star play, as no other Lions receiver or tight end outside of LaPorta has seen higher than 18% of targets per route run or has higher than an 11% target share. Thus, we expect St. Brown to be force-fed in this matchup, and this would switch to a more confident four-star play if LaPorta is ruled out, as he set the rookie single-season record for receptions by a tight end (86).   

The +120 value for St. Brown to find the endzone at bet365 is excellent, considering BetRivers charges as high as -141 odds for this wager.

For more on this matchup, see our Rams vs. Lions prediction and Rams-Lions NFL player props.

Joe Flacco Under 1.5 passing touchdowns vs. Texans (-119 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐⭐ ✅

In five starts with the Browns this season, Joe Flacco is 4-1, with 13 touchdown passes and four 300-yard games in that span. Arguably, his best game in that span was a 36-22 win against the Texans in Week 16, where he threw for 368 yards and three touchdowns with a season-high 87.9 QBR. However, despite his instant success and being one win away from setting the record for most road playoff victories in a career, DraftKings is reporting that the public is fading Flacco as their most popular pick for various props. We agree that this will be his first game in a Browns uniform where he does not throw for multiple touchdowns.

In the first meeting against the Texans, Flacco faced man coverage on 26% of the plays and averaged 14.2 yards per attempt with a 3-0 TD-INT ratio and a 99.8 Total QBR. He faced zone coverage 74% of the time and averaged 6.8 yards per attempt with a 0-2 TD-INT ratio and a 72.7 Total QBR. 

Overall, Flacco has a 77 QBR against man coverage this season and a 34 QBR against zone, and we expect a heavy dose of zone coverage from the Texans will be the reason for Flacco’s worst game statistically so far this season.

The Under is juiced as high as -130 at FanDuel, so we are getting great value by using our Caesars promo code: SBRBONUSDYW.

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NFL game picks for Wild Card Weekend

Chiefs/Bills moneyline parlay (-125 via BetRivers) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

The Kansas City Chiefs and Buffalo Bills have met twice in the playoffs in the last three years, and a third meeting is guaranteed if each wins their game this weekend.

The Chiefs handled their half of this parlay with a 26-7 win over the Miami Dolphins on Saturday night.

The Buffalo Bills also get a massive break by facing a Pittsburgh Steelers defense without the services of T.J. Watt (MCL sprain), as the Steelers are 1-10 SU in their last 11 games without him. 

Last season with Watt on the field, Pittsburgh ranked first in QBR allowed (35), second in sack percentage (8.8%), and second in yards per play allowed (4.8). And entering its Week 14 game when Watt was dealing with a concussion, Pittsburgh’s defensive splits when Watt was on versus off the field were staggering.

At that point, In the 86% of plays that Watt was on the field for, the Steelers allowed a 38 QBR and a 38% third down conversion percentage. For the 14% of plays that Watt was off the field for, their QBR allowed rose to 64 QBR, and they allowed opponents to convert 63% of third downs, per NFL Next Gen Stats.

Packers +7.5 vs. Cowboys (-110 via BetMGM, Caesars, bet365) ⭐⭐⭐

We have the utmost respect for what the Cowboys have done at home this season, finishing as the only team who went undefeated in home games, with a point differential of +172. However, two of Dallas’s last three home games were its only one-possession home games of the season, and Green Bay is built to handle the pressure of the Cowboys pass rush.

Dak Prescott has the highest QBR under pressure (78) since Week 10, but Packers quarterback Jordan Love is second on that list (75), which is essential since the Cowboys' defense led the NFL in pressure rate this season. In addition, the Packers have averaged 385.9 yards per game since Week 9 (4th).

We would only play Green Bay at +7.5 or higher and would pass at +7, so we have our choice to make our wager at BetMGM, Caesars, or bet365.

NFL best bets made 1/11/2023 at 12:27 a.m. ET.

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Written By:
Mike Spector
Mike started in the sports writing industry in July 2019, and gained a lot of followers in his first year after finishing with the No. 2 overall record in an annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an Over/Under and moneyline perspective. Mike is an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, tennis, and all college sports. In his opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and he's especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. Mike's a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." When making wagers, Mike always scours the best odds at all of the major sports betting sites, where he mostly sifts through DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and bet365. He's tried several others and is of the firm belief that bettors should not just stick to one sportsbook, as there is always likely better value to be had with the same wager. In addition, while Mike received his undergraduate degree from Villanova University, he has no issue betting against the Wildcats when it comes to college basketball wagering, and suggests other bettors should always put their “head” before their “hearts.”