Tua Tagovailoa Player Props vs. Steelers: Can Dolphins QB Finally Win in the Cold on MNF?

The Pittsburgh Steelers welcome the Miami Dolphins for a Monday Night Football showdown, and I’m locking in my best Tua Tagovailoa player props as part of our NFL Week 15 predictions.

Kickoff is scheduled for 8:15 p.m. ET on ESPN from Acrisure Stadium, where the Steelers enter as 3-point favorites. The big question: can Tua - who’s winless in five career cold-weather starts under 40 degrees - finally flip the script under the prime time lights? Let’s break it down.

🏈  Tua Tagovailoa player prop bets vs. Steelers: MNF

See all of our NFL picks for Week 15 based on the latest NFL odds. 

Looking for Steelers picks? Tap into my best Aaron Rodgers player props for Monday Night Football.

💰 Best Tua Tagovailoa player prop

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Tua Tagovailoa Over 192.5 passing yards (-115) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

This passing number is awfully low for Tua - I think the cold narrative has gotten into the minds of the bookmakers. Yes, I get it, he hasn't been great this year, he hasn't even been good. Yes, I know he's 0-5 in freezing temperatures. Yes, this will be an ugly game. However, he's going up against a defense that gives up 244 passing yards per game - good for 27th in football. Look for Mike McDaniel to get Tua going early and often, and for this game to remain close enough that Tua will still be dropping back come the fourth quarter. 

At -115 betting odds, you're getting a 53.49% chance this play cashes, with a $10 wager netting you $8.70 in profits.

🔥 More Tua Tagovailoa prop picks

Want more NFL betting advice? Check out all of our NFL analysis and expert predictions for Week 15.

Tua Tagovailoa Under 1.5 passing touchdowns (-185) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

While I can see Tua throwing one, two might be pushing it when the Dolphins love to use their running backs inside of the 10-yard line. In a likely low-scoring game script, expect De'Von Achane to do most of the work in the red zone tonight. For his part, Tua hasn't thrown multiple touchdowns in three weeks.

Stick this play into a parlay at -185 betting odds with BetMGM - which gives you a 64% chance this play hits.

Tua Tagovailoa Under 0.5 rushing yards (-105) ⭐⭐⭐

While these plays are mostly about defying the "Tua sucks in the cold" narrative, this one does the opposite. Tua's injuries read like a CVS receipt, and I don't see him risking his health once more in freezing temperatures. He's already mainly put his legs to rest this year, having just as many games with zero rushing attempts as games with three or more. Without TJ Watt, I'm expecting a relatively clean pocket for Tua to maneuver. Let's ride the Under here as part of our best Tua Tagovailoa player props.

🚀 Best Tua Tagovailoa SGP bets

See all of our NFL same-game parlay bets for Week 15.

Best SGP odds: +451 via BetMGM ($10 to win $45.10)

📺 How to watch Monday Night Football: Dolphins vs. Steelers

• Date: Monday, Dec. 15
• Kickoff: 8:15 p.m. ET
• Location: Acrisure Stadium (Pittsburgh)
• TV: ESPN

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