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Quarterback Kyler Murray of the Arizona Cardinals passes the ball during the second quarter of the game against the Los Angeles Rams.
Quarterback Kyler Murray of the Arizona Cardinals passes the ball during the second quarter of the game against the Los Angeles Rams. Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images via AFP.

The Arizona Cardinals look to break a record set 41 years ago in this week’s road contest against the Carolina Panthers. We dive into that and more in our list of Week 4 trends to know in the NFL. 

One of the most challenging things for novice NFL bettors is to sift through the countless trends in each game and determine their relevance or impact on the game at hand. For example, head-to-head data between two teams that dates back to the 1970s do not provide much insight since none of the players taking the field were born at that time. Thus, we hope to give you the most relevant information and trends for you to use when making your weekly wagers.

Here are our top three NFL trends to know for Week 4 (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook).

Top NFL Betting Trends for Week 4

Cardinals (+100 ML) vs. Panthers

Arizona has won seven consecutive games on the road outright as underdogs.

With the Cardinals’ 29-23 overtime road win against the Las Vegas Raiders, they tied the 1980-81 Seattle Seahawks for the longest winning streak as road underdogs in the Super Bowl era.

Arizona was favored in this game based on last week’s lookahead line pegged it as laying -3 points. However, the line jumped the fence after the Cardinals failed to score a touchdown (for the second time in four seasons of the Kyler Murray/Kliff Kingsbury era) in their 20-12 loss to the Rams. 

Perhaps Arizona's loss to L.A. should not be surprising, as Rams head coach Sean McVay is 11-1 SU and ATS in his career against the Cardinals. In addition, Murray’s 47.1 total QBR entering the matchup with Los Angeles was his fifth-lowest against any opponent in his career. The loss dropped Arizona to 19-10-1 ATS as an underdog under Kingsbury.

Carolina covered as +2.5-point home underdogs in its 22-14 win over New Orleans, which was just its third cover in the last 17 games dating back to last season.

Jets (+150 ML) vs. Steelers

Pittsburgh is 0-6 SU in the six games it has played without defensive star T.J. Watt since drafting him.

Reigning Defensive Player of the Year T.J. Watt will be out again for this game as he remains on injured reserve with a pectoral injury he suffered a couple of weeks ago. In his absence, the Steelers' pass rush has been non-existent and their run defense has also suffered, surrendering 171 yards on the ground to the Cleveland Browns in their Thursday night matchup.

The Steelers are coming off a season where their quarterbacks combined for a total QBR of 36 (27th in the NFL), and things have not looked better so far under Mitch Trubisky. It prompted head coach Mike Tomlin to have to answer questions about a possible quarterback change after Week 3. 

While Tomlin has an excellent track record as an underdog, his teams are just 82-94-5 ATS as favorites, covering in just 46.6% of games. Meanwhile, the Jets may get a spark this week with the expected return of quarterback Zach Wilson, who has missed the first three weeks because of a knee injury he suffered in the preseason.

Chiefs (-3) vs. Buccaneers

Kansas City is 47-26-1 ATS on the road under head coach Andy Reid, the best mark in the NFL in that span.

The Kansas City Chiefs dropped to 1-1 ATS on the road this season after their straight-up loss as five-point favorites to the Colts. The loss was Kansas City’s second with Patrick Mahomes at quarterback when it allowed 26 or fewer points, as its record in those games is now 45-2 (including playoffs). It was also Indianapolis’ first time covering the spread in its last five games, and quarterback Matt Ryan’s first ATS cover in his previous seven starts dating back to his time with Atlanta.

Tampa Bay had been money in games with point spreads between -3 and +3, covering four straight such games, before last week’s outright 14-12 loss as one-point favorites against the Green Bay Packers. The Buccaneers have averaged 17 ppg this season and have scored fewer than 20 points in all three games.

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