Top Expert Betting Picks for NFL Week 18
Check out our NFL Week 18 expert picks for the best against the spread and Over/Under bets.
It's the first Week 18 in NFL history. While some teams have nothing to play for in their final game, the top seed in the AFC is still up for grabs, as well as two division titles and three playoff berths.
Here's a look at the top ATS and O/U picks for Week 18 from our team of NFL betting experts (odds via DraftKings, FanDuel, and PointsBet; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Top NFL Week 18 Expert Picks
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SEE ALSO: NFL Week 18 Parlay Picks
Top NFL Week 18 ATS Picks
Titans -10 (-110 via DraftKings)
It's as tough a week as any I can remember to pick teams against the spread given the team's resting starters and the COVID-19 absences throughout the league. However, I still think there's value on the Titans to cover against the Houston Texans.
The Titans should have plenty to play for, as they can clinch the top spot in the AFC with a win. I expect that to still be in play as I don't see the Chiefs losing to the Broncos the night before. Yes, the Texans beat them in November, but that was mostly because Ryan Tannehill threw four interceptions.
I don't foresee that happening this week. If the Titans can double the Texans total yards like last time and cut down on the turnovers, this should be an easy win for them. - Bondi
Jets +16.5 (-112 via FanDuel)
New York will likely be without Elijah Moore and Braxton Berrios for this game, but that's completely fine. In fact, I might even wait until they're officially ruled out to see if I can get a better price. The fact of the matter is New York just ran the ball down Tampa Bay's throat in Week 17 and nearly won, which is not something many can lay claim to.
The Jets have averaged 175 yards per game on the ground over the last three weeks and now meet a Bills defense that, while great on the whole this season, has been a disaster against the run. Buffalo ranks in the bottom half of the league in DVOA against the run and should be bowled over by this impressive offensive line and talented rookie Michael Carter. As long as the Jets can move the ball on the ground — and there's no reason to believe they can't — this is looking like the value call of the week. - Ducey
Cardinals -6.5 (-110 via DraftKings)
I’ll be honest in that I don’t like the vast majority of lines in Week 18 because so many teams have little to play for. Even most playoff teams as they are essentially locked into their seeding. Seattle is playing out the string on its worst season in the Russell Wilson era and it’s probably his final game with the Seahawks. I’d expect the whole team to go through the motions here.
Arizona, meanwhile, is in the playoffs but still has the carrot of winning the NFC West and getting at least one home playoff game. That would happen with a victory and a 49ers loss at the Rams, which seems fairly likely. The games kickoff simultaneously, so really the only concern here is if San Francisco is somehow up 20 points on the Rams at halftime and the Cardinals pull their starters. I highly doubt that happens. Arizona won in Seattle 23-13 in Week 11 without Kyler Murray and he’s healthy now. This should be an easy win for the Cardinals. - Jordan
Washington -7 (-110 via DraftKings)
We're getting some great value here on Washington thanks to its four-game losing streak, all to NFC East opponents. But we're fading the New York Giants here.
Jake Fromm draws his second career start after throwing for just 25 yards and an interception before he was benched in a Week 16 loss. Since losing quarterback Daniel Jones to injury, the Giants have lost five straight games, all by margins greater than seven points. In fact, those five defeats have come by an average of 18.4 points.
Washington has also played poorly of late, but quarterback Taylor Heinicke is a significant step up from any quarterback on the other sideline. Playing for a chance to start for the Football Team next season, Heinicke should have no trouble leading a decisive victory over the depleted Giants. - McClymont
Top NFL Week 18 O/U Picks
Panthers Team Total Under 16.5 (-120)
The Panthers are one of the worst offensive teams in the league. They are 30th in total yards per game, 29th in passing ypg, and haven't gone Over 300 yards of total offense in six of their previous eight games. This is mostly due to the loss of Christian McCaffrey and their woeful quarterback situation. None of their three starters this season have a QBR over 34.
The Buccanneers are not expected to rest many if any starters, as they're still fighting for a higher seed in the NFC. The last time these teams played in Week 16, the Panthers scored just six points. It doesn't matter who the Panthers trot out there as their starting quarterback, they will struggle to move the ball. This total is too high for a team that has only gone Over this once in their previous five. - Bondi
Chargers-Raiders Over 49.5 (-110 via PointsBet)
It's hard to gauge totals on this slate with so many starters sitting out across the league, but this is one I really do like. It's high for a reason — the Chargers rank fourth in seconds per play this season and 27th in weighted DVOA. They've been a disaster in the secondary and in a must-win game for both teams to get into the postseason, I expect Las Vegas to be a little more urgent than its current pace would indicate.
Furthermore, I just like both of these quarterbacks to have massive nights through the air. Las Vegas is 25th in DVOA against the pass and Los Angeles 23rd. There should be no reason for either team to run the ball which should really open up the scoring. We'll get a shootout to end the season. - Ducey
Packers-Lions Under 45 (-110)
Green Bay has nothing to play for having clinched the top seed in the NFC. Coach Matt LaFleur says the starters will play, but I bet it’s only for a series or two. There's absolutely no reason to risk injury to Aaron Rodgers. Thus, we will see plenty of Jordan Love and the backups.
Detroit also has nothing to play for and probably will be without starting QB Jared Goff for a third straight game due to a bone bruise to his knee. No reason to put him out there. Former Packers backup Tim Boyle thus would get the start and he’s not a starting-caliber QB in the NFL — he has 3 TDs and 6 INTs on the season. Jordan Love and Tim Boyle equals almost a surefire Under. - Jordan
Chargers-Raiders Over 49.5 (-110 via DraftKings)
The Los Angeles Chargers' last five games have hit the Over and the only contest to draw less than 50 points was last week's win over the Drew Lock-led Denver Broncos. Even that game finished Over at 47 total points. Going back to Week 14, even the Mike Glennon-led Giants (yes, the GIANTS!) managed to score 21 points on the Chargers. You see where we're going here.
The Chargers score the sixth-most points in the league (27.6 points per game), but their defense also allows the seventh-most (26.5 PPG).
The Raiders' offense has struggled of late, but the NFL's 11th-best offense should manufacture enough points in what is expected to be a shootout for the AFC's last playoff spot. - McClymont
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