UPDATED: NFL Week 18 Parlay Picks
The final week of the NFL's regular season is a difficult minefield to maneuver through. We'll have to gauge motivation and monitor roster announcements to find the best value for our NFL parlay picks this week.
There are just three playoff spots still up for grabs, but seeding is still yet to be sorted out, including the No. 1 seed in the AFC.
Here's a look at my top parlay picks based on early lines this week for the NFL's Week 18 slate (odds via FanDuel; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Week 18 NFL Parlay Picks
Dallas Cowboys vs. Philadelphia Eagles +4.5 (-110) ????Green Bay Packers vs. Detroit Lions +3.5 (-109) ????New Orleans Saints vs. Atlanta Falcons +4.5 (-112) ????
SEE ALSO: Updated NFL Week 18 Odds, Lines and Picks
Week 18 NFL Parlay Predictions
Eagles +4.5 (-110)
Dallas Cowboys owner Jerry Jones has said the starters will play, but I am skeptical. There is little reason for the Cowboys to fully attack this game with starters, other than a potential second-round home game. Dallas can finish no lower than the fourth overall seed as the NFC East champion, and if the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Los Angeles Rams also win, the Cowboys will remain the fourth overall seed.
The Philadelphia Eagles are rumored to be resting their starters, but I still have confidence in the backups. Quarterback Gardner Minshew was fantastic against the New York Jets, throwing for 242 yards and two touchdowns in Philadelphia's 33-18 win in Week 13. As long as the Eagles have a competent quarterback, they should be able to score points against the defensive backups for the Cowboys.
It is critical for Dallas to keep quarterback Dak Prescott healthy and there will be concerns about a shorthanded Cowboys offensive line. All-Pro offensive tackle Tyron Smith was placed on the COVID list Thursday. In a road rivalry game, it's difficult to see head coach Mike McCarthy leaving Prescott on the field with a compromised offensive line.
The Cowboys also placed cornerback Anthony Brown and star linebacker Micah Parsons in the COVID protocols.
This line opened at Philadelphia +3.5, was bet down to Philadelphia +2, then saw a huge overcorrection (Philadelphia +7) when Jones speculated the starters would play. The market has corrected, but has not gone far enough.
I'm grabbing the points with the home Eagles team in a Week 18 NFC East showdown for this NFL parlay pick.
Lions +3.5 (-109)
I liked this line early in the week and it has moved even further in my favor. I expect all significant Green Bay players to sit out this game. Packers backup quarterback Jordan Love should play well, posting 190 passing yards, one touchdown, one interception, and 23 rushing yards in their Week 9 game at Kansas City.
The Lions responded every week for head coach Dan Campbell all year, and I expect another strong effort at home against Green Bay in Week 18.
Detroit was actually competitive in its first game against the Packers, as the Lions led 17-14 at halftime in Week 2. The Packers have clinched the No. 1 seed in the NFC playoffs, which will likely lead to a myriad of players sitting out this game.
The Lions played well last week at Seattle, with rookie wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown continuing a fantastic end to the season. St. Brown translated a team-high 11 targets to eight receptions, 111 yards, and two total touchdowns. Running back D'Andre Swift also returned and should have a much better effort at home in the last game of the season.
Historically, this matchup at Ford Field has been very close. Over the past six years, Detroit had two wins and the four losses were by seven points or less. With a motivated Lions team and an unmotivated Packers team, I'll take the 3.5 points with the underdog in Week 18 for my next NFL parlay pick.
Falcons +3.5 (-110)
Another Week 18 game, another division rivalry. Atlanta earned a surprising 27-25 win at New Orleans back in Week 9. The Falcons now host New Orleans with a chance to eliminate their bitter rivals from playoff contention.
Atlanta has been the most successful team at limiting Saints star running back Alvin Kamara. In nine career games against the Falcons, Kamara is averaging just 88 total yards per game. Against all other teams, he averages 103 total yards.
This is a matchup-based pick, as the Falcons always play the Saints tough. This game is in Atlanta, and the Saints offense has not done anything to inspire confidence. New Orleans has averaged just 10 points per game over the last three contests.
I grabbed the early line and the 4.5 points in a projected low-scoring game between two NFC South rivals. The line has dropped to Atlanta +3.5, but as long as I can get the hook with three points, I'll take the home underdog against a limited New Orleans offense.
Combined Odds: Eagles +4.5 (-110), Lions +3.5 (-109), Falcons +3.5 (-110): +600
SEE ALSO: All picks and odds. Be sure to check out SportsbookReview.com’s community forums and betting tools.
NFL parlay picks made 1/4/2021 at 9:04 p.m. ET
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