Free Kentucky Derby Picks & Predictions 2024: Expert Picks to Win the 150th Run for the Roses

Handicapping a 20-horse Kentucky Derby race is an arduous task as you siphon through a fire hose of information - with one fact usually contradicting another, which contradicts a second, which contradicts a third - but we try to do just that as we offer our free Kentucky Derby picks and predictions based on the odds from our best horse racing betting sites.

If you want to bet on the 150th Kentucky Derby, you'll need to answer a series of difficult questions before the gates open at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Ky., just before 7 p.m. ET on Saturday.

Is betting favorite Fierceness the standout horse in the 2024 Kentucky Derby field? Or does Sierra Leone have a strong case for the title, considering its dominance over many Derby competitors in prep races?

Adding to the intrigue is Forever Young, the Japanese contender hailed as the "It" horse of this year's Derby. Could this be the year a Japanese contender triumphs at the Run for the Roses? And what about the UAE Derby winner? Could this be their moment to etch their name in history at Churchill Downs?

These questions only heighten the excitement surrounding one of America's most iconic sporting events, where the thrill of victory and the agony of defeat often converge just two minutes after the race begins.

Whether you find yourself jubilant in victory or disheartened in defeat, our breakdown of the Kentucky Derby odds, coupled with our top free picks and predictions, should give you valuable insights to maximize your enjoyment of those exhilarating two minutes on race day.

To help you get the best of the Kentucky Derby odds, here are three horses to keep an eye on for reasons good and bad with our top free Kentucky Derby picks and predictions for Saturday's marquee race at Churchill Downs (odds via our best Kentucky Derby betting sites).

Kentucky Derby odds

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Kentucky Derby picks and predictions

Kentucky Derby favorite: Fierceness (Post 16/+250)

Say “hello” to the undisputed fastest, most talented horse in the Derby 150 field. And while you’re at it, say “hello” to the most manic-depressive horse in the field.

If the manic Fierceness shows up, everyone else is running for second. He’s that good. The Champion 2-year-old has the fastest Beyer Speed Figure in the field by nine points - the 110 he racked up in his 13 1/2-length dissection of the Florida Derby field. This is not to be confused with his 6 1/4-length destruction of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. Nor his 11 1/4-length boat-race in his maiden debut. Add it up and that’s three victories by a combined 31 lengths. When this City of Light progeny flips the switch, he’s unbeatable.

When he doesn’t, well, he’s borderline unwatchable, which is where we say “hello” to the depressive Fierceness. After that maiden-breaking debut, he finished a miserable seventh by more than 20 lengths in the Champagne Stakes as the 1-2 favorite last fall. Then, in his 2024 debut as the 1-5 favorite in the Holy Bull, Fierceness surrendered the lead in the stretch, finishing a weak third to Hades and Domestic Product.

Fierceness is battling Derby history as well. Only two Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winners found the Churchill Downs winner’s circle: Street Sense (2007) and Nyquist (2016). We’re not saying Fierceness can’t flip the switch; he’s talented and fast enough to seize the lead and wire the field. But which switch will he flip - the manic or the depressive?

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Kentucky Derby long shot: Honor Marie (Post 7/+2000)

Yes, this son of Honor Code hasn’t won in five-and-a-half months, or since capturing the Kentucky Jockey Club at Churchill Downs on Nov. 25. Yes, only two horses this century have worn roses despite not winning a race as a three-year-old. Yes, he finished fifth in the Risen Star, finishing behind the winner (Sierra Leone), third-place (Catching Freedom), and fourth-place finishers (Resilience).

And yes, Honor Marie isn’t likely to beat several of his counterparts. But he belongs on your tickets as the best candidate to outrun his odds.

Because, yes, Honor Marie’s best Beyer Speed Figure is a 96. That puts him clearly in the mix, considering 11 of the previous 14 Derby winners clocked a triple-digit Beyer and it’s a big ask to expect a horse to hit three figures if his previous best Beyer is below a 95. Yes, Honor Marie is 3-for-3 in the exacta in his three Churchill Downs trips. And yes, that Risen Star turned out to be the key race of the Derby trail season, considering the aforementioned trio all won their next races.

Honor Marie’s stalking style produced a 37.01-second final three furlongs and 12.17-second final furlong in his runner-up finish to Catching Freedom in the Louisiana Derby stamps him as a legitimate contender under former Louisville turf writer and publicist Jennie Rees’ Final Fractions Theory. That mandates serious Derby runners clock at least a 38-second final three furlongs and/or a 13-second final furlong in their last Derby prep race - a barometer met by 29 of the past 33 Derby winners, including 12 of the last 13.

Our pick to win the Kentucky Derby: Catching Freedom (Post 4/+800)

This was not a slam dunk, considering Sierra Leone - last seen battling for favoritism with Fierceness - is the best closer in the field. He’s already beaten Catching Freedom in the Risen Star and has the resume to win this and not raise eyebrows or throw your tickets in disgust at a Rich Strike-esque bad beat.

And we’ll pick a few more nits to start. Catching Freedom starts from Post 4. No horse starting in Gates 1 through 4 have won since Super Saver in 2010. Two Phils' runner-up finish last year from Post 3 was the first time a horse starting in the first four posts hit the board since 2017. He has the win-every-other-race CV that Fierceness has, meaning coming out of his Louisiana Derby win, he’s due for a bounce.

But there’s a difference. Catching Freedom hasn’t run a bad race (3-0-1 in five starts). He has two stakes victories: the Smarty Jones and the Louisiana Derby. He’s the only colt in the field who has boosted his Beyer every race, jumping it to a Derby-contenderesque 97 in his Louisiana Derby score. And unlike Sierra Leone, Catching Freedom checks both Final Fraction Theory boxes: clocking a 36.58-second three-furlong and covering his final furlong in a blistering 12.05 seconds.

The other difference is - unlike Sierra Leone - Catching Freedom isn’t a stone-cold closer. Yes, he’s labeled a closer and illustrated that by storming the pack from the back, blowing past favored Track Phantom, and fending off Honor Marie to win the Louisiana Derby. But two starts ago in the Risen Star, he was perched in third. A wide bid by jockey Flavien Prat in the stretch fell short by less than two lengths.

It’s that versatility to stalk that - barring any trouble - plays very well in this race. And plays very well at the value price you should get.

Ahead of and after the Kentucky Derby, see our breakdown of the best horse racing Triple Crown odds.

Kentucky Derby info

• When: Saturday, May 4
• Post time: 6:57 p.m. ET
• Where: Churchill Downs, Louisville, Ky.
• How to watch: NBC Sports

Kentucky Derby betting strategies

What to know for betting the Kentucky Derby

Constructing winning Derby tickets involves strategic considerations, starting from the back of the field and progressing forward. Utilizing a process-of-elimination tactic helps narrow down contenders by eliminating horses deemed insufficiently fast. By systematically analyzing the field in this manner, bettors can enhance their chances of selecting winning combinations.

The second key is to try identifying the long shots and value horses (like Honor Marie and Stronghold) who may not win, but have the potential to find the board and boost your exotic bets. Building a winning exacta (picking the top two horses), trifecta (top three finishers) or superfecta (top four) ticket means finding value down the board.

Those are the horses that produce the eye-watering, sometimes life-changing (see 2022’s $321,500.10 superfecta) payouts every horseplayer seeks like the proverbial Holy Grail.

Also, understand that it's those deep closers we’ve discussed that need to be somewhere on your ticket. According to handicapper Mike Shutty, a closer carrying odds of 10-1 or higher has found the superfecta 10 consecutive years. And in nine of 10 years, closers made up two of the four superfecta spots. Finally, 11 horses carrying odds of at least 26-1 have finished in the top four since 2012.

Did we mention how important finding the right long shots are?

Once you’ve done that, key a few horses you are confident in atop your tickets. Use them as anchors for all of your wagers.

Kentucky Derby trends and stats

Up until two years ago, when Rich Strike stole the Derby in the last 50 yards with a slalom run through 16 other horses in the final half-mile, Derby winners in the points era had the need for front-end speed.

The bumper-car demands of a modern, 20-horse Derby mandated a horse get to - or near - the front, then have the tactical speed to sustain or improve that position in the final half-mile. But closers like Rich Strike in 2022 and Mage last year turned that on its ear. They did so through incendiary paces in the opening half-mile, when their counterparts reeled off sub-45.5-second splits that fried their chances and opened the door for a closer to sail in out of the clouds.

Since the points era began in 2013, eight of the 11 horses who crossed the finish line first (allowing for the suspended Maximum Security in 2019 and Medina Spirit in 2021) were first, second or third at the half-mile mark. The exceptions? Orb, Rich Strike, and Mage - the only three closers to wear roses in the points era. And all three benefited from insane fractions.

That means pace is the prince of your picks. If you think horses like Dornoch, Fierceness, Track Phantom, and other front-runners are going to resemble the Road Runner of Warner Brothers fame and burn up the track, a closer like Sierra Leone is your go-to. But if you think form will revert back to the Derbies of 2014-2021, where front-end speed, the Final Fractions Theory, and other reliable barometers of modern Derby success will revert matters to the mean, Fierceness, Forever Young, and, yes, Catching Freedom are better choices.

They’re the typical pace-setters, pressers, and stalkers: horses who lead, stay near the lead or stalk the pace until the last three-eighths or quarter-mile.

How to bet on horse racing

Some other general strategies to consider for your Kentucky Derby picks that apply in general when betting on horse racing include:

• Understanding the basics: Horse racing offers a variety of betting options, but the most common bet is to pick a horse to win, place, or show. A "win" bet means you're betting on a horse to finish first, a "place" bet means you're betting on a horse to finish first or second, and a "show" bet means you're betting on a horse to finish first, second, or third. Additionally, you can bet on multiple horses in different combinations, such as exactas (picking the first and second-place horses in order) or trifectas (picking the first three horses in order).
• Handicapping the race: Before placing your bets, it's important to do some research and analyze the horses, jockeys, trainers, track conditions, and past performances. Look at factors such as recent form, speed figures, class level, and how well the horse has performed on similar track surfaces and distances. You can also consider factors like post position, workout times, and any changes in equipment or jockey.
• Placing your bets: Once you've done your research and identified potential winners, it's time to place your bets. Head to the betting window or use a betting app to place your wagers. Be sure to specify the type of bet you're making (win, place, show, exacta, etc.), the horse's program number, and the amount you want to wager. Double-check your bet slip before confirming to ensure accuracy.

Kentucky Derby picks made Thursday at 2:38 a.m. ET.

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