Titans vs. Packers Same Game Parlay Picks, Predictions: 3 Plays for Thursday Night Football
Could the Tennessee Titans be running up against a buzzsaw in Green Bay? It’s possible that Packers QB Aaron Rodgers has found his groove. Here are our Week 11 Titans-Packers same-game parlay picks for Thursday Night Football.
After the Packers’ miraculous comeback victory over the Dallas Cowboys last week at Lambeau Field, how will Green Bay look to build upon its newfound momentum in another home game as Tennessee comes to town?
Here are my same-game parlay picks for the Week 11 Thursday Night Football matchup between the Titans and Packers (odds via FanDuel Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Check out our Titans-Packers picks, our Thursday Night Football props, and our Aaron Rodgers prop picks.
Titans vs. Packers Odds
Titans vs. Packers Same Game Parlay Picks
Same Game Parlay Predictions for Titans-Packers
Packers -3.5 (-104) ★★★
The Packers proved something in last week’s win over the Cowboys, something that most football fans probably thought was beyond them at this stage of the season: Rodgers can sling the football down the field to a capable receiver not named Davante Adams.
Packers rookie Christian Watson finally had his coming-out party to help Green Bay roar back to beat the Cowboys at Lambeau. This selection flies in the face of the season-long trends that have seen the Packers go a mere 2-2 ATS at home, while the Titans have consistently covered spreads on the road, going 4-1 ATS as the away team this season.
More than anything, this is a gamble on the Packers being ‘back’ in ways we hadn’t seen before they upset Dallas. Tennessee has given up volume in the passing game this season, which could be where Rodgers looks to attack. If he does so successfully, I don’t like the Tennessee offense that averages 18.4 points per game (26th in NFL) to keep up.
Henry Under 104.5 rushing yards (-110) ★★★★
Everything about the Packers’ run defense sets the stage for Derrick Henry to have a big night on Thursday. Green Bay ranks 30th in the NFL in run defense DVOA and has allowed a high volume of yards to the running back position. The Packers surrender 140.6 rushing yards per game on the year, which ranks 26th in the league.
It’s those gaudy numbers combined with Henry’s ridiculous ability to break big plays that sets up the focal point of the Titans’ offense with such a hefty rushing line. But the size of the line is part of what scares me for Henry on Thursday. Though he seems like he’s doing it every week, Henry has cleared 100 rushing yards in only five of his nine games this season.
The Titans have also curiously not ridden him as hard lately, as King Henry has fallen short of 20 carries two games in a row entering Week 11. Conservative usage in a projected negative game script could lead Henry short of this line.
DraftKings places the line for Under 104.5 at -120 odds, indicative of that being the favored outcome by the sportsbook (the Over carries -105 odds). FanDuel has the total at 104.5 with -110 odds on either side.
Rodgers Over 240.5 passing yards (-110) ★★★
Of all the random quarterbacks to have thrown for 300-plus passing yards in a game this season, Rodgers somehow still hasn’t done it.
That surprising stat doesn’t prevent me from being intrigued by Rodgers’ passing yards total for this parlay, though. The line of 240.5 at FanDuel is one the Tennessee defense has allowed opposing QBs to clear in seven of its past eight games.
Though Rodgers has struggled mightily on the year, he still cleared this passing line in four of his last eight games. The long-awaited emergence of Watson could provide Rodgers the ammunition he needs to exploit a Titans pass defense that ranks 31st in yards per game (272.6).
DraftKings offers a staggered approach to Rodgers’ passing yardage: Choose from Over 224.5 (-180) or Over 249.5 (+100). Even when we plug the more daunting Over 249.5 option into our parlay, DraftKings still falls short on combined odds, +500 to FanDuel’s +520.
Where to Bet on Titans vs. Packers Same Game Parlay Picks
Titans-Packers picks from 11/17/2022 at 1:48 p.m. ET.
