Texans vs. Raiders Picks, Predictions: Houston is Due for an Upset
Head coach Lovie Smith's Houston Texans are just 1-3-1 on the season but come off their bye looking for a second straight win, this time on the road against the Las Vegas Raiders. Read on for our top Texans-Raiders picks.
The Raiders also come off a Week 6 bye and will look to bounce back from a 30-29 loss to the Kansas City Chiefs on primetime in Week 5. That was Las Vegas's first win of the season under new head coach Josh McDaniels.
The Texans earned a surprising tie with the Indianapolis Colts in Week 1 but then lost three straight games before upsetting the rival Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 5. They're 3-1-1 against the spread but remain underdogs for Week 7.
Check out all of our top NFL picks for Week 7, as well as our best bets!
Here are our Texans-Raiders Week 7 NFL picks (odds via Caesars Sportsbook and BetMGM; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Texans vs. Raiders Game Info
- Date: Sunday, Oct. 23, 4:05 p.m. ET
- TV: FOX
- Location: Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas, NV
- Weather: Indoors
Texans vs. Raiders Odds
Texans vs. Raiders Odds Analysis
Bettors are aligned on both the Raiders' side of the spread and the Over. Las Vegas has drawn 71% of the handle on 81% of the tickets, causing the spread to move from the consensus opening line of Raiders -6.5 to -7 as of Sunday morning.
The Over/Under has shot up from an opening line of 42 to 46 as of Sunday with 72% of the tickets accounting for 88% of the handle on the Over.
Texans vs. Raiders Picks
- Spread: Raiders -7 (-110 via BetMGM) ★★★★★
- Over/Under: Over 45.5 (-110 via BetMGM) ★★★★
- Prop: Davis Mills Over 1.5 passing TDs (+129 via Caesars) ★★★★★
Texans vs. Raiders ATS Pick
Raiders -7 (-110) ★★★★★
Are we sure the Raiders are good enough to warrant this line? It seems like a miracle they can catch a touchdown against one of the worst teams in football.
Las Vegas is 30th in DVOA against the pass and 15th against the run, and while Houston doesn’t rate highly in either regard it does pass almost 61% of the time to rank 16th. Moving the ball through the air has to be the gameplan against a secondary this bad, and that’s exactly what the Texans can bring to the table with surprisingly competent quarterback Davis Mills.
On top of that, Houston did a fine job against a pretty solid Jacksonville offense last week. The Jaguars sit 11th in total offensive DVOA and mustered just six points. While the Jags did record over 400 yards, they were 0-for-3 in the red zone.
The Texans are more than good enough to keep this one within reach, especially with a terrible defense on the other side.
Texans vs. Raiders O/U Pick
Over 45.5 (-110) ★★★★
The Over has cashed in the last three games the Raiders played and in two of the last three the Texans played. This is probably because the Texans allow 5.8 yards per play, an NFL 23rd, and due to the Raiders ranking second-worst with 3.4 touchdowns against them per game.
This matchup should feature a ton of passing with the Raiders’ secondary folding in the face of some deep balls from Mills and with Vegas ranking ninth in pass play rate. The Raiders also rank 14th in pace to help out the argument.
Expect a shootout, but not the kind that’s fun to watch. Very little defense should be played.
Texans vs. Raiders Prop Pick
Mills Over 1.5 passing TDs (+129) ★★★★★
This fits with the rest of our breakdown. You can catch a spicy +129 line on Mills to throw multiple touchdowns, something that three out of five QBs to face the Raiders have done this season. The Raiders give up over three TDs per game, and with the state of their secondary that's certainly attainable.
Mills has just two multi-touchdown games, but one came a couple of weeks ago against a similarly-troubled Chargers' secondary. Believe in Mills Mafia.
Where to Bet on Texans vs. Raiders Picks
Here are our top-rated sportsbooks:
Texans-Raiders picks made 10/21/2022 at 9:51 p.m. ET
