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NFL Teaser Picks Conference Championships: Back Underdogs in Close Contests

Neil Parker

Last Updated: January 25, 2023 10:15 AM EST • 2 min 63 sec read.

We’re down to four teams vying for a trip to the Super Bowl, and the San Francisco 49ers and Kansas City Chiefs are both small underdogs and ripe candidates to tease up above the key number of 7 on Sunday. Here are our top teaser picks for the NFL Conference Championships.

There’s already been early NFL line movement ahead of Sunday’s games, and it presents an opportunity to land an even more inflated number in two matchups I’m anticipating remain close for the full 60 minutes.

Both sharp and recreational bettors turn to teasers as an avenue to move multiple point spreads and/or totals through key numbers and ranges for an increased vig. There is additional information and strategies to keep in mind available in our teaser primer.

Here are our teaser picks for the NFL Conference Championships (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Check out our top NFL upset picks and NFL betting trends.

NFL Conference Championships Teaser Picks

  • Six-point teaser: 49ers +8.5 + Chiefs +8.5 (-120 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐

49ers (+8.5 vs. Eagles)

The San Fran offense and quarterback Brock Purdy didn’t even have to be pretty against the Dallas Cowboys in the NFC Divisional Round. The 49ers’ top-ranked defense did the heavy lifting and proved it can lead the way and win ugly.

San Fran boasts the best overall and defensive DVOA per Football Outsiders during its active 12-game winning streak, and this is a huge uptick in class for the Philadelphia Eagles offense after running the overachieving New York Giants off the field last week. Furthermore, the Eagles have faced the sixth-easiest schedule of opposing defenses.

Though I'm not typically a trends chaser, the Niners boast a 5-0 record against the spread across their past five postseason games, compared to the Eagles' 1-5 ATS ledger across their past six January games.

I’m expecting the Niners to hang around in Philly all afternoon Sunday, and as a result, I value the added cushion above the key number of 7 this teaser leg provides. 

Check out our 2023 Super Bowl odds and our Super Bowl MVP odds.

Chiefs (+8.5 vs. Bengals)

I’m not expecting Kansas City quarterback Patrick Mahomes (ankle) to be 100% Sunday night, so this is strictly a numbers play. The Chiefs opened as high as -3 home favorites through some sportsbooks and -2.5 numbers were widely available Sunday evening. As a result, we’re gaining a huge edge by moving this line all the way to+8.5.

This will also be the fourth meeting between these two teams in just over a year, so I’m expecting the familiarity to favor Chiefs head coach Andy Reid – whom I consider the superior game-planner in this matchup. Additionally, each of Cincinnati’s past three wins over Kansas City was by a field-goal margin in close, back-and-forth games.

I think the line movement was warranted because of the uncertainty surrounding the severity of Mahomes’ high ankle sprain, but it’s given us a numbers edge to take advantage of with the spread moving all the way to Cincinnati -2.5 as of Tuesday afternoon.

As long as Mahomes is healthy enough to run the offense effectively, I peg this as a one-possession game.

NFL Conference Championships Teaser Best Odds

DraftKings (-120)

DraftKingsFanDuelBetMGMCaesarsPointsBet
-120 🔥-134-149* ❄️-128-140 ❄️

Every sportsbook offers teasers in a unique way, so it’s critical to know whether a push is considered a loss or if the pick will be removed and the odds adjusted. Additionally, you may need to go into each individual game and select an alternative point spread and then create a parlay, which is the case with BetMGM, Caesars Sportsbook, and PointsBet.

Additionally, as of Tuesday afternoon, BetMGM didn’t even have an alternative spread of +8.5 available for the Chiefs, so the -149 odds are based on KC +8. 

Of our top-rated sportsbooks, DraftKings and FanDuel Sportsbook are the easiest shops for placing a teaser bet, and the odds are adjusted in the event of a push. DraftKings also offers the best number for a six-point 49ers-Chiefs teaser. Bettors land a 3.8% edge and a 7% positive expected value when placing this wager at DraftKings instead of PointsBet.

I’d grade this as a four-star recommendation if I was confident that both underdogs would be receiving a field-goal headstart at the same time and enable us to use a six-point teaser to make both the 49ers and Chiefs a +9 pup.

NFL Divisional Round teaser picks made on 1/24/2023 at 4:00 p.m. ET.

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Written By:
Neil Parker
A lifelong Cowboys, Cubs, Maple Leafs and Gators supporter, Neil has been covering sports in print and online since 2011. His past stops include USA TODAY, theScore, DraftKings Playbook and RotoWire among others. He's a graduate of St. Thomas University and Acadia University and spends ample time at KenWo Golf Club.