NFL Survivor Trap Pick for Week 8: Why You Should Avoid Backing the Buccaneers

Road teams favored in divisional games are always a tricky case in NFL betting, and one such example in Week 8 makes for our NFL survivor pick to avoid.

I already laid out the best survivor pool picks for this week, but I am back to explain why to avoid selecting the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as favorites against the New Orleans Saints as part of your NFL picks and NFL predictions for Week 8.

What is a survivor trap pick?

A "trap pick" in NFL survivor pools refers to a team that looks like a lock based on the spread, matchup, or public sentiment - but carries hidden risk. These teams tend to be overvalued by bettors and highly picked in survivor contests, meaning one upset can wipe out huge portions of the field.

Tracking public pick percentages and upset risk is key to Survivor success. Following the crowd might feel safe, but differentiation often wins long-term.

Why Buccaneers are this week's survivor trap pick

There are sure to be plenty of the remaining 4,214 Circa Survivor entries that will risk their chance at the grand prize on Tampa Bay. But while New Orleans is off to its worst seven-game start (1-6) since 1999, it still makes for a tricky opponent and a potential trap spot for the Buccaneers.

Here’s why Tampa Bay carries upset risk:

• Injury concerns: Mike Evans’ broken collarbone could have a serious impact on the Tampa Bay passing game. Amid its star wide receiver leaving in the second quarter last week, Tampa Bay recorded a season-low 4.7 yards per dropback in the second half. The Buccaneers also finished with season lows in rush yards (41), points (nine), and total yards (251)
• They also managed two first downs on 12 rushes, and had no rush attempts over seven yards despite Detroit employing light fronts to protect its injury-ravaged secondary
• Leaky offensive line: Baker Mayfield was pressured on 18 dropbacks in last week’s loss to the Lions, which was his most in a game with the Buccaneers

Safer survivor picks for Week 8

The following are safer teams that survivor pool contestants should pivot to if they have them as eligible teams to use. The Indianapolis Colts already own a 21-point road win against the Tennessee Titans, the Miami Dolphins look uninspired amid QB Tua Tagovailoa’s allegations of questionable leadership, and the Buffalo Bills should look strong after a bye in a quest to end a two-game losing streak.

Public vs. Sharp betting trends

The line has plummeted as much as 1.5 points from -5.5 to -4, despite 71% of the wagers landing on Tampa Bay. And as of Wednesday afternoon, 80% of the total tickets at DraftKings backed the Buccaneers’ point spread

Historical survivor trap trends

Baker Mayfield is just 7-14 ATS in 21 starts as a favorite against a divisional opponent. Of the 82 quarterbacks to make a start as a favorite against a divisional opponent since Mayfield entered the league, his 7-14 ATS record is the worst.

Tampa Bay also has a minus-1 scoring differential despite owning a 5-2 record. Neither of the last two teams to have that high of a winning percentage and a negative point differential to be favored in their eighth game covered the point spread.

Why I'm fading Buccaneers in my survivor pools

The Buccaneers' defense suddenly has question marks after allowing six plays of at least 20 yards last week. While the Saints offense does not have nearly the same firepower as the Lions’, it should not need to win a shootout with Mike Evans out for the foreseeable future.

Tampa Bay still has home games against New Orleans and Carolina, and a road game against the imploding Dolphins later in the season. I would save the Buccaneers for one of those spots while giving them more time to get healthy, and would instead opt for one of these best survivor pool picks laid out earlier in the week.