Survivor Pool Picks Week 5: NFL Survivor Strategies & Safest Pick This Week

Once again our NFL survivor pool picks advanced with ease in Week 4, as our best pick (Texans) and strategy pick (Patriots) won by a combined 55 points.

Through four weeks, we have not fallen victim to the landmines that several Circa Survivor contestants could not avoid, especially with six underdogs winning outright last week.

The NFL picks strategy below is part of our NFL predictions for Week 5.

🎯 Best NFL survivor pool picks: Week 5

NFL survivor pool picks for Week 5; best NFL odds subject to change.

🦬 Safest NFL survivor pick: Bills (81.13%) over Patriots

With last week’s 31-19 win over the Saints, Bills quarterback Josh Allen improved to 28-2 SU as a favorite of at least 8.5 points. He is in a similar spot against a Patriots team coming off its most points in a game (42) in four seasons. But Buffalo has not lost the turnover battle in 26 consecutive games, while New England is two weeks removed from committing five turnovers in a loss to the Steelers.

New England may very well end up as the second-best team in the AFC East, which means the Bills still have two games left against potentially weaker competition in the Jets and Dolphins. But Buffalo is still the safest NFL survivor pick at our best sports betting sites as it has won 13 straight games at Highmark Stadium, which is the longest active home winning streak in the league.

🌵 Best NFL survivor pick: Cardinals (81.48%) over Titans

Arizona currently has a 56.52% implied probability through FanDuel’s -130 odds to finish fourth in the NFC West. Therefore, this is the best opportunity to use a team that is a solid favorite in a week where one may not be confident in picking them in survivor pools for the remainder of the season.

The Cardinals are coming off extra rest having played last Thursday night, and have an advantage with this being their second straight home game. They have won four of their last six games as home favorites since 2023, and face a Titans team whose 10-game losing streak is the longest active losing streak in the NFL.

I expect Arizona to build off the momentum of scoring two fourth-quarter touchdowns in a comeback attempt against Seattle, and continue to frustrate rookie Cam Ward, who leads a Tennessee offense that has not scored a touchdown in two of its four games.

🐴 NFL survivor strategy pick: Colts (76.74%) over Raiders

The Colts had a real chance to upset the Rams on the road last week, but were undone by three turnovers after not committing a turnover in any of their first three games.

Indianapolis fell to 4-9 against teams with winning records under head coach Shane Steichen, but this Raiders team does not look headed for a winning record after losing three straight.

Las Vegas showed signs of life last week with Ashton Jeanty becoming the first player in Raiders history with 100 rushing yards and at least two receiving touchdowns in the same game. But quarterback Geno Smith’s turnovers (he had three last week) are a real concern going forward, especially against a Colts team that finished Sunday with a top-six turnover differential (plus-three).

🐦‍⬛ NFL survivor pick to avoid: Texans (56.52%) over Ravens

Many are concerned about Baltimore’s 1-3 record, despite the three losses coming against three of the top teams in the league (Bills, Lions, Chiefs).

The Ravens’ season is on the verge of slipping away with all the injuries that have accumulated, most notably with quarterback Lamar Jackson being ruled out with a hamstring injury. But this is still a team that was a preseason Super Bowl contender for a reason, and while their depth will be tested, I would not oppose them in survivor pools even though the line jumped the fence to Houston being favored.

Ravens running back Derrick Henry still ranks eighth in rushing yards and tied for first in 20-yard rushes despite having a quiet last three games, and he is more than capable of putting the offense on his back while Cooper Rush is under center.

💵 Circa Survivor contest update

Circa Sports, a popular Las Vegas sportsbook, hosts one of the biggest NFL survivor pool contests. Through four weeks, 12,404 entries remain, with the Chargers and Packers combining to account for 1,262 of the 1,407 eliminated entries last week.

❓ NFL survivor pool FAQs

What is the best NFL survivor pick this week?

The Arizona Cardinals are the best pick in NFL survivor pools for Week 5, while the Indianapolis Colts are the best contrarian pick for NFL survivor strategy.

How do NFL survivor pools work?

Each week, you must choose one team to win their game outright, but you can't use the same team twice across the 18-week NFL regular season. That means you must pick teams that are likely to win but won't be needed later in the year.

How do you win an NFL survivor pool?

The best way to win an NFL survivor pool is to make strategic picks each week that avoid upsets while leaving the best teams available late in the season. If you make the same picks as everyone in your pool, you won't be able to win - but you need to pick teams that can avoid knocking you out early.

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