NFL Survivor Pool Picks Week 4: NFL Survivor Strategies & Safest Pick This Week
Three weeks into the season and all of our six NFL survivor picks, three best picks, and three strategy picks have kept us alive and advanced us to make our NFL survivor pool picks for Week 4.
Alas, we did not fall victim like the numerous Circa Survivor contestants that lost when selecting two of the five most popular survivor picks from last week that lost outright.
The NFL picks strategy below is part of our NFL predictions for Week 4.
π― Best NFL survivor pool picks: Week 4
NFL survivor pool picks for Week 4; best NFL odds subject to change.
| Team | Opponent | Moneyline | Win probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bills | vs. Saints | -2000 | 95.24% |
| Texans | vs. Titans | -395 | 79.80% |
| Broncos | vs. Bengals | -400 | 80.00% |
| Lions | vs. Browns | -500 | 83.33% |
| Chargers | at Giants | -305 | 75.31% |
| Patriots | vs. Panthers | -250 | 71.43% |
| Packers | at Cowboys | -355 | 78.02% |
| Rams | vs. Colts | -190 | 65.52% |
| Eagles | at Buccaneers | -205 | 67.21% |
| 49ers | vs. Jaguars | -185 | 64.91% |
π Best NFL survivor pick: Texans (79.80%) over Titans
I would not get into the habit of picking 0-3 teams confidently in survivor pools, but Houston is in a great situational spot at home against a Tennessee team that has struggled mightily to break in rookie quarterback Cam Ward.
The Texans had a great chance to steal a road win against the Jaguars last week, but were undone by three turnovers in the fourth quarter. Nevertheless, this line still ballooned from an opening number of 5.5 to more than a touchdown at several best sports betting sites, as the Titans are amid the longest active losing streak in the NFL (nine games).
Houston has a gauntlet at Baltimore, at Seattle, home to the 49ers, and home to the Broncos coming up. Thus, I am making sure I use a team that won the last two division titles in survivor pools before its season possibly unravels over the next month.
Need more help here? Our moneyline picks for Week 4 will set you up for success.
πͺ NFL survivor strategy pick: Patriots (71.43%) over Panthers
Our NFL survivor strategy picks are 3-0, and weβre sitting pretty after using the Jaguars, Bengals (who have since lost Joe Burrow) and Buccaneers while avoiding the NFLβs top-tier teams.
The Patriots fit the mold of a contrarian survivor play this week, especially since their opponent, the Panthers, are coming off their first shutout victory since 2020. But perhaps we should not have been shocked by that result, as Panthers quarterback Bryce Young is now 3-1 against the Falcons and 4-23 versus all other teams.
After playing the Bills on Sunday Night Football next week, New England has winnable games against the Saints and Titans in the following two weeks. But both of those are road games, and I have more confidence in New England in this spot, even though it is 3-16 at home since the start of the 2023 season.
π¦ NFL survivor pick to avoid: Lions (83.33%) over Browns
Cleveland is riding high after breaking a streak of 145 consecutive losses when trailing by 10 or more points in the final four minutes. The Browns defense is legit, holding Green Bay to just 3.8 yards per play. And nothing travels in the NFL like a rock-solid defense.
Detroit may not necessarily be on upset alert, but this is a tough spot coming off a short week and a physical Monday night game against the Ravens. The Lions have home games against the Giants and Cowboys later in the season that are much better situational spots than this.
π΅ Circa Survivor contest update
Circa Sports, a popular Las Vegas sportsbook, hosts one of the biggest NFL survivor pool contests. Through three weeks, 13,811 entries remain, with the Packers and Falcons combining to eliminate roughly 3,000 contestants last week.
β NFL survivor pool FAQs
What is the best NFL survivor pick this week?
The Houston Texans are the best pick in NFL survivor pools for Week 4, while the New England Patriots are the best contrarian pick for NFL survivor strategy.
How do NFL survivor pools work?
Each week, you must choose one team to win their game outright, but you can't use the same team twice across the 18-week NFL regular season. That means you must pick teams that are likely to win but won't be needed later in the year.
How do you win an NFL survivor pool?
The best way to win an NFL survivor pool is to make strategic picks each week that avoid upsets while leaving the best teams available late in the season. If you make the same picks as everyone in your pool, you won't be able to win - but you need to pick teams that can avoid knocking you out early.
(21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER)
* Bonuses not applicable in Ontario.
Not intended for use in MA.
Each betting site featured on SBR has been meticulously researched and selected by our team of experts. If you sign up through our links, we may get a commission.
Related Articles
