Survivor Pool Picks Week 16: NFL Survivor Strategies & Safest Pick This Week

My NFL survivor pool picks were on point last week, nailing all of the top plays and correctly identifying the one survivor pick to avoid (Panthers). I am back with my Week 16 version of this column that includes the safest play, the best survivor pick, and the top strategy move.

Just two of the 16 games on the NFL slate have point spreads bigger than a touchdown, but my NFL Week 16 predictions will help navigate the difficult final stretch of survivor pools.

🎯 Best NFL survivor pool picks: Week 16

See the latest NFL odds and our experts' NFL picks for every game this season.

🐂 Safest NFL survivor pick: Texans (94.1%) over Raiders

Check out all of our NFL analysis and expert predictions for every game in Week 16.

Houston is on a six-game winning streak, the team’s longest since 2018 when it won nine straight. The winning streak was spurred by a defense that has allowed 20 or fewer points in five consecutive games, and now faces a Raiders offense that is coming off being shut out for the second time this season (and has been held to single digits five times).

Las Vegas’ eight-game losing streak is the longest in Pete Carroll’s head coaching career, and there should be no letdown from a Texans team that is barely hanging on to the last wild card spot in the AFC.

🟣 Best NFL survivor pick: Vikings (61.5%) over Giants

There are safer survivor picks than the Vikings this week (like the Eagles and Bills, to name a few), but I am being realistic that few survivor contestants have those top teams remaining with three weeks left in the season.

Minnesota is coming off an impressive road win against Dallas, where it pressured Dak Prescott on 48% of his dropbacks, the highest pressure percentage he has faced in his career. 

Meanwhile, the Vikings likely got the best performance from first-year starter J.J. McCarthy. McCarthy threw for a career-high 250 yards and completed five passes of 15-plus air yards.

The Giants have lost eight straight games and are currently in position to hold the No. 1 overall pick in the 2026 draft. They are a team that appears to be simply riding out the end of the season under a lame-duck interim head coach.

⚜️ NFL survivor strategy pick: Saints (68.8%) over Jets

It does not get much more contrarian in an NFL survivor pool than picking a team with a 4-10 record. But New Orleans is coming off back-to-back wins for the first time this season, and has a huge scheduling advantage playing its second straight home game against a Jets team playing a second consecutive road game.

The Saints have been a much more competitive team of late, thanks to a defense that has allowed fewer than 200 passing yards in four straight games. Meanwhile, the Jets were not competitive in a 48-20 loss at Jacksonville last week, which was also the largest favorite that Trevor Lawrence has been in his NFL career.

New York desperately needs to draft a franchise quarterback, so it may not behoove it to win this game and join the other 26 teams that entered the week with at least four wins.

❌ NFL survivor pick to avoid: 49ers (73.3%) over Colts

Part of me doesn’t want to use San Francisco in survivor pools because I want to root for the 44-year-old Philip Rivers in his first home start since coming out of retirement. But this is also not the smartest play, considering the Colts lost at Seattle only on a last-second field goal last week, which was just Seattle’s fourth win in franchise history without scoring a touchdown.

Yes, Indianapolis has lost five of six games after starting the season 7-1. But the Colts were stout against the run in limiting Seattle to 51 rushing yards last week, and a similar performance against Christian McCaffrey could be just what they need to pull a Monday night upset. Our Corey Scott is still backing the Niners with his early 49ers vs. Colts prediction for MNF.

💵 Circa Survivor contest update entering Week 16

All of the remaining 10 live entries in the Circa Sports survivor contest advanced to Week 16. The three selected teams (Jaguars, 49ers, Eagles) won their games by an average of 24 points, and none was decided by fewer than 13. The contest started with 18,718 entries, which means the last 10 entries still alive each have an implied value of $1.87 million.