NFL Survivor Picks Week 1: Survivor Pool Strategies & Team to Avoid
Most NFL survivor picks remain intact through the first game of the season, and we have suggestions for all remaining games ahead of Sunday's 1 p.m. ET deadline to finalize your pool NFL picks.
Our Connor Cooper's NFL moneyline picks can also help you make informed decisions this week and avoid the dreaded Week 1 loss.
🎯 Best NFL survivor picks: Week 1
NFL survivor pool picks made Friday; best NFL odds subject to change.
| Team | Opponent | Moneyline | Win probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Broncos | vs. Titans | -425 | 81.0% |
| Eagles ✅ | vs. Cowboys | -410 | 80.4% |
| Bengals | at Browns | -230 | 69.7% |
| Cardinals | at Saints | -270 | 73.0% |
| Jaguars | vs. Panthers | -180 | 64.3% |
| Commanders | vs. Giants | -265 | 72.6% |
| Buccaneers | at Falcons | -130 | 56.5% |
| Chiefs | vs. Chargers | -168 | 62.7% |
| Patriots | vs. Raiders | -138 | 58.0% |
| Packers | vs. Lions | -134 | 57.3% |
🐎 Best NFL survivor pick: Broncos (81.0%) over Titans
This is a brutal spot for the No. 1 overall pick from this past draft, as Tennessee Titans rookie Cam Ward heads west to play in one of the league’s toughest environments.
The Denver Broncos made the playoffs last year on the strength of pounding inferior opponents. The Broncos went 8-0 with a point differential of plus-15.4 points per game against teams that were .500 or worse, while Bo Nix recorded a 16:5 TD-INT ratio in those games (excluding Week 18 against the Kansas City Chiefs' backups). Nix currently ranks 16th in Gary Pearson's NFL clutch ratings.
With Denver playing in a tough division, this is a great spot to use it against a young quarterback before he gets his feet wet.
🐆 NFL survivor strategy pick: Jaguars (64.3%) over Panthers
Those in large survivor pools with thousands of contestants would be wise to employ unconventional strategies at times, possibly opting to pick under-the-radar teams early while others burn the league’s best teams.
The Jacksonville Jaguars fit the mold this week in head coach Liam Coen’s debut against Bryce Young and the Carolina Panthers. In two years since drafting Young first overall, the Panthers rank dead last in yards per game and overall record while sitting 30th in scoring offense.
Carolina has the longest active streak of six consecutive seasons with 10-plus losses, so this is worth the risk in bigger survivor pools despite Jacksonville’s traditional struggles in September.
Circa Survivor Contest
Popular Las Vegas sportsbook, Circa Sports, runs one of the biggest and most popular survivor contests there is. Here is how 18,656 entries break down heading into the Week 1 Sunday slate. Note, 36 entrants picked the Kansas City Chiefs, just 2 picked the Dallas Cowboys.
- Broncos: 7,173 (38.4%)
- Cardinals: 4,171 (22.3%)
- Eagles: 1,811 (9.7%)
- Jaguars: 1,636 (8.8%)
- Bengals: 1,231 (6.6%)
- Commanders: 1,138 (6.1%)
- Steelers: 479 (2.6%)
- Patriots: 269 (1.4%)
- Rams: 233 (1.2%)
- Colts: 92 (0.5%)
- Dolphins: 75 (0.4%)
- Buccaneers: 68 (0.4%)
- Bears: 55 (0.3%)
- 49ers: 30 (0.2%)
- Falcons: 27 (0.1%)
- Packers: 25 (0.1%)
- Raiders: 25 (0.1%)
- Seahawks: 23 (0.1%)
- Vikings: 19 (0.1%)
- Chargers: 12 (0.1%)
- Jets: 11 (0.1%)
- Browns: 11 (0.1%)
- Saints: 11 (0.1%)
- Texans: 8 (0.0%)
- Ravens: 5 (0.0%)
- Lions: 5 (0.0%)
- Giants: 5 (0.0%)
- Panthers: 5 (0.0%)
- Bills: 2 (0.0%)
- Titans: 1 (0.0%)
💡 NFL expert picks for Week 1
- NFL picks against the spread Week 1
- NFL QB clutch player ratings Week 1
- NFL fantasy pickup player props Week 1
- NFL rookie player props Week 1
- NFL trends that matter Week 1
- NFL weather report Week 1
- NFL survivor picks Week 1
- NFL upset picks Week 1
- NFL betting guide: How to bet Week 1 on a $100 budget
- NFL long-shot parlay Week 1
- NFL live betting guide Week 1
- NFL moneyline picks Week 1
- NFL AI predictions Week 1
- NFL player props Week 1
- NFL Watchability Index Week 1
❓ NFL survivor pool FAQs
What is the best NFL survivor pick this week?
The Denver Broncos are the best pick in NFL survivor pools for Week 1, while the Jacksonville Jaguars are the best contrarian pick for NFL survivor strategy.
How do NFL survivor pools work?
Each week, you must choose one team to win their game outright, but you can't use the same team twice across the 18-week NFL regular season. That means you must pick teams that are likely to win but won't be needed later in the year.
How do you win an NFL survivor pool?
The best way to win an NFL survivor pool is to make strategic picks each week that avoid upsets while leaving the best teams available late in the season. If you make the same picks as everyone in your pool, you won't be able to win - but you need to pick teams that can avoid knocking you out early.
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