NFL Survivor Picks Week 9: Bank on Bengals Bounce Back
The Cincinnati Bengals, Philadelphia Eagles, Kansas City Chiefs and Buffalo Bills are all large favorites this week and headline our top picks for NFL survivor pools in Week 9.
There are once again a number of large favorites on the docket, but options are also thinning out for poolies who have survived to this point of the season. With that in mind, I’ll highlight a few additional teams this week.
Here’s a look at the odds list and a breakdown of the top teams to target and fade in survivor pools this week.
Check out our NFL best bets and all of our top picks for Week 9!
Week 9 Survivor Pick Rankings
Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook as of Wednesday, Nov. 2, at 8 a.m. ET.
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Implied Win Probability |
| Eagles | -13.5 | -800 | 88.9% |
| Bills | -12.5 | -670 | 87.0% |
| Chiefs | -12.5 | -650 | 86.7% |
| Bengals | -7.5 | -335 | 77.0% |
| Vikings | -3.5 | -186 | 65.0% |
| Dolphins | -5 | -215 | 68.3% |
| Ravens | -2.5 | -152 | 60.3% |
| Chargers | -3 | -156 | 60.9% |
| Jaguars | +1.5 | +106 | 48.5% |
| Patriots | -5.5 | -250 | 71.4% |
| Buccaneers | -3 | -146 | 59.3% |
| Seahawks | +2 | +114 | 46.7% |
| Packers | -3.5 | -194 | 66.0% |
| Lions | +3.5 | +162 | 38.2% |
| Cardinals | -2 | -134 | 57.3% |
| Rams | +3 | +124 | 44.6% |
| Colts | +5.5 | +205 | 32.8% |
| Raiders | -1.5 | -124 | 55.4% |
| Falcons | +3 | +140 | 41.7% |
| Saints | +2.5 | +128 | 43.9% |
| Bears | +5 | +180 | 35.7% |
| Commanders | +3.5 | +156 | 39.1% |
| Panthers | +7.5 | +270 | 27.0% |
| Titans | +12.5 | +480 | 17.2% |
| Jets | +12.5 | +490 | 16.9% |
| Texans | +13.5 | +570 | 14.9% |
Top NFL Survivor Picks
6. Dolphins (at Bears)
With Miami Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa pacing the NFL in both DVOA, per Football Outsiders, and EPA per play, I like the Fins to put up enough points to win on the road against the Chicago Bears.
The Bears have traded key starters on defense in linebacker Roquan Smith and edge rusher Robert Quinn, and Tagovailoa is 11-2 across 13 starts dating back to Week 11 last season.
It's also worth noting this spread has already begun to move in the Miami direction after opening at -4.5.
5. Vikings (at Commanders)
While I’d be much more confident if this game was at U.S. Bank Stadium, I still like the Minnesota Vikings to outscore the Washington Commanders.
The Commanders rank 30th in offensive DVOA, so they’ll struggle to keep pace with Minnesota’s capable offense. The Vikings rank 10th in points per game, 11th in offensive DVOA and 13th in EPA per play.
Additionally, the Vikings are 6-1, and Washington has the fifth-worst point differential in the entire league.
4. Bengals (vs. Panthers)
This is a ripe bounce-back spot for the Cincinnati Bengals following their disappointing loss on Monday Night Football to the Cleveland Browns. I’m also placing additional emphasis on the 4-4 Bengals entering their Week 10 bye with a winning record and this being a home game at Paycor Stadium.
The Carolina Panthers rank 28th in DVOA, whereas the Bengals sit in 10th spot. Additionally, Cincinnati has faced the sixth-toughest schedule by the metric, and Carolina has faced the 11th easiest. Bank on the Bengals roaring loudest Sunday.
3. Chiefs (vs. Titans)
Kansas City Chiefs head coach Andy Reid has been next to automatic following a bye during his career, and I’ve already highlighted how the Chiefs project as an uptick in class for the Tennessee Titans in Week 9.
I’m confident in Reid and quarterback Patrick Mahomes on home turf, especially with Mahomes leading the league in defense-adjusted yards above replacement and ranking second in EPA per play.
I’m not confident in the Titans' quarterback situation – regardless of whether it’s Ryan Tannehill returning from an ankle injury, or Malik Willis behind center to make just his second career start.
2. Bills (at Jets)
A division road game isn’t a traditional setup to target the Buffalo Bills in survivor contests, but they’re also one of the largest favorites on the docket. Additionally, I’m confident Buffalo will improve to 7-1 Sunday.
The Bills have a single hiccup on their ledger. While it was another division road game, the South Florida heat and humidity on a short week definitely took its toll on Buffalo during its Week 3 loss to the Miami Dolphins.
Buffalo remains the No. 1 team in the NFL until proven otherwise, and the Bills trading as the Super Bowl betting favorite affirms it.
1. Eagles (at Texans)
The Philadelphia Eagles are the largest favorites in Week 9, and they draw the lousy Houston Texans on a short week. Admittedly, I could see the Eagles playing down to the level of their opponent to a degree, and two of their three road wins have been decided by a field goal.
Still, Houston ranks last in both overall DVOA and grade, per Pro Football Focus, and the Eagles rank second and first in both metrics. Perhaps even more encouraging, the Texans sport the second-lowest EPA per play, and the Eagles have surrendered the second-lowest.
I don’t envision the Texans being able to put enough points on the scoreboard to beat Philadelphia.
Others to Consider
- Ravens at Saints
- Chargers at Falcons
Favorite to Fade
Packers (at Lions)
The Green Bay Packers have lost four straight and this will also be their third consecutive road game. We all know the Detroit Lions are bad, but they’ve shown offensive potential and have scored 24 points or more in five of seven contests this season.
Green Bay has only scored 24 or more twice, and the Packers rank 22nd in defensive DVOA.
I expect the Packers to run all over the Lions with Detroit ranking 30th in rush defense DVOA and third-last in EPA per rush. Still, if the Lions also put points on the board, do you want your survivor entry riding on Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers leading Green Bay to victory in a close game?
Others to Consider
- Patriots vs. Colts
- Buccaneers vs. Rams
Where to Bet on the NFL
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