NFL Survivor Pool Picks Week 6: Rams Best Pick Based on the Odds

There are a couple big spreads to take advantage of in NFL survivor pools in Week 6, and the Rams and Buccaneers headline our rankings.

A couple of teams check out as doormats to pick against in survivor pools this week. As a result, the Los Angeles Rams and Tampa Bay Buccaneers headline our rankings of the top Week 6 NFL survivor picks.

Every week’s a battle in survivor pools, but with the Carolina Panthers and Pittsburgh Steelers looking like ripe opponents to pick against, backing the Rams and Buccaneers as the two biggest favorites on the docket is a go-to path to advancing to Week 7.

Check our top Week 6 NFL odds and lines and ATS power rankings.

Here’s a look at the odds list and a breakdown of the best teams to target and fade in survivor pools this week.

Week 6 Survivor Pick Rankings

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook on Wednesday, Oct. 12, at 8:30 a.m. ET.

Team Spread Moneyline Win Probability
Rams -10.5 -490 83.1%
Buccaneers -8.5 -370 78.7%
Ravens -5 -230 69.7%
Packers -7 -355 78.0%
49ers -5.5 -240 70.6%
Chargers -5.5 -230 69.7%
Eagles -5 -230 69.7%
Commanders +1 -104 51.0%
Patriots +3 +126 44.2%
Vikings -3 -154 60.6%
Cardinals -2.5 -144 59.0%
Chiefs +2.5 +124 44.6%
Jaguars +2.5 +120 45.5%
Bengals -1.5 -126 55.8%
Saints +1.5 +108 48.1%
Colts -2.5 -142 58.7%
Bills -2.5 -146 59.3%
Seahawks +2.5 +122 45.0%
Dolphins +3 +130 43.5%
Browns -3 -148 59.7%
Bears -1 -112 52.8%
Cowboys +5 +190 34.5%
Broncos +5.5 +190 34.5%
Falcons +5.5 +198 33.6%
Jets +7 +270 27.0%
Giants +5 +190 34.5%
Steelers +8.5 +295 25.3%
Panthers +10.5 +380 20.8%

Top Survivor Picks

3. Ravens (at Giants)

If not for a second-half collapse from the Green Bay Packers in Week 5, the New York Giants would probably be hosting the Baltimore Ravens off a loss and following a London game. 

This is far from an ideal schedule spot.

The Ravens are hanging with the league’s best teams in total DVOA (third) per Football Outsiders. They're also sixth by Pro Football Focus' overall grade, whereas the Giants rank 18th and 31st, respectively. 

In particular, Baltimore’s offense ranks second in offensive DVOA and seventh in EPA per play. Additionally, Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson is 40-14 as a starter.

A quick glance at the schedule for both teams also highlights a large disparity in the quality of opponents through the first five weeks of the season. The Giants have faced the ninth easiest schedule per DVOA, and Baltimore has faced the sixth toughest.

I’m confident backing Jackson and the Ravens in a contest against an inferior opponent ready for a letdown and in a tough schedule spot. 

2. Buccaneers (at Steelers)

Buccaneers quarterback Tom Brady has found a groove the past two weeks. He has league’s best success rate while completing 71.2% of his passes for 736 yards and four touchdowns without an interception across his last two games.

The Bucs boast the third-ranked defense by DVOA and also sport the third-highest coverage grade per PFF. As such, I'm confident Brady can beat Steelers rookie quarterback Kenny Pickett on Sunday.

Pickett has four interceptions on just 65 pass attempts through his first two NFL appearances. He also ranks 23rd with a 65.1 expected-completion percentage over the past two weeks.

It’ll be worth monitoring the Pittsburgh injury report, too. The Steelers are already without reigning NFL Defensive Player of the Year  T.J. Watt (knee), and the secondary is especially banged up.

1. Rams (vs. Panthers)

The Panthers head west with new interim head coach Steve Wilks and inexperienced quarterback P.J. Walker set to start against a strong Rams defense. 

This is also a must-win game for the 2-3 Rams, and Los Angeles is the largest favorite on the docket. 

Los Angeles has faced the most difficult schedule in the league per DVOA. The defense has still managed to surrender the second-lowest success rate over the past two weeks. L.A. also has the fifth-highest defense grade for the year per PFF.

Additionally, with the Panthers ranking 24th in pass rush win rate and 21st in pass rush grade per PFF, I’m anticipating Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford to have more time and for the offense to show up Sunday.

Check out our NFL teaser picks for Week 6.

Others to Consider

  • 49ers at Falcons
  • Packers vs. Jets
  • Eagles vs. Cowboys

Favorite to Fade

Chargers (vs. Broncos)

Simply put, I’m fading the Los Angeles Chargers in a divisional matchup against a high-end defense.

The Denver Broncos have surrendered the third lowest EPA per play, rank second in defensive pass DVOA, and have the second-highest defense grade per PFF. There’s also a potential mismatch in the trenches with Denver ranking fourth in pass rush win rate, and Los Angeles ranking 22nd in pass block rate.

Additionally, four of Denver’s five games were decided by one possession, and the Broncos will have the extra prep time following their Week 5 loss to the Indianapolis Colts on Thursday Night Football. 

The extra rest could also be especially important for Denver quarterback Russell Wilson, as he’s nursing a partially torn lat in his throwing shoulder.

Others to Consider

  • Vikings at Dolphins
  • Browns vs. Patriots
  • Bills at Chiefs

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