Super Bowl 2026 Matchup Breakdown: Seahawks vs. Patriots Preview
Over a decade after the New England Patriots beat the Seattle Seahawks in one of the most memorable Super Bowls of all time, the two teams are set to take the field in the Big Game again, and my Super Bowl 2026 matchup breakdown looks at how they stack up this time around.
The Seahawks are a 4.5-point betting favorite by the 2026 Super Bowl odds ahead of Super Bowl 60 on Sunday, Feb. 8 (6:30 p.m. ET, NBC) from Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara, Calif.
📊 Super Bowl 2026 odds: Seahawks vs. Patriots
See the latest NFL odds and our experts' NFL picks for Super Bowl 60.
🏈 Super Bowl 2026 matchup breakdown: Seahawks vs. Patriots
On paper, it shouldn't be all that hard to answer the question of who will win the Super Bowl? Though the Seahawks and Patriots had identical regular season records, every advance metric points to Seattle being the decisively better team.
New England's record has been inflated by a historically easy regular season schedule, and it didn't get much harder for the Patriots in their playoff run to the Super Bowl. Mike Vrabel's team beat a Los Angeles Chargers lineup dealing with major offensive line injuries, a Houston Texans squad down its best offensive player (Nico Collins), and a Denver Broncos team that was without its star QB (Bo Nix).
Still, New England has lost just one game since late September and perhaps the lack of challenging matchups means Drake Maye and Co. will be fresher than the Seahawks.
Tale of the tape: How these teams stack up
| Seahawks | Stats | Patriots |
|---|---|---|
| 14-3 | Record | 14-3 |
| 7.0 (1st) | Football Power Index (rank) | 2.7 (10th) |
| 1st | Team total DVOA rank | 9th |
| 14th | Strength of schedule | 32nd |
| 28.4 | PPG | 28.8 |
| 351.4 | Yards per game | 379.4 |
| 17.2 | Points allowed per game | 18.8 |
| 285.6 | Yards allowed per game | 295.2 |
| 12-5 | ATS record | 11-6 |
| 9-8 | O/U record | 11-6 |
🎯 The QB duel: Drake Maye vs. Sam Darnold
Despite the advanced metrics and our best Super Bowl betting sites pointing to Seattle as the obvious favorite, New England does have the better quarterback.
Maye might take home MVP honors in just his second season, with the former No. 3 overall pick proving to be one of the most efficient passers in the NFL. The North Carolina product finished top five in every relevant passing category and has survived three playoff defenses that finished top 10 in EPA per play.
But Maye sits behind Sam Darnold in the Super Bowl MVP odds, and it's not just because of Seattle's dominance, implying the Seahawks will win the title.
Darnold is coming off one of the best performances of his career (82.9 QBR) against a Los Angeles Rams defense that finished No. 6 in EPA per dropback. And it certainly helps that he's throwing to arguably the best wide receiver in football, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, who we've highlighted in our 10 Super Bowl bets to make right now.
So, while Maye is the QB everyone would pick to start a franchise with, Darnold is in the better situation heading into the Super Bowl.
He has the best receiver taking the field (JSN), the more reliable No. 2 receiver (Cooper Kupp), the better running back (Ken Walker), and a comparable tight end corps and offensive line. Plus, Rashid Shaheed's speed has been an X-factor in the playoffs.
Tale of the tape: Darnold vs. Maye
| Sam Darnold, Seahawks | Stats | Drake Maye, Patriots |
|---|---|---|
| 55.7 (19th) | QBR (rank) | 77.1 (1st) |
| 4,048 | Passing yards | 4,394 |
| 25 | Total TDs | 35 |
| 0.157 (11th) | EPA per play (rank) | 0.313 (1st) |
| 53.3% (4th) | Success rate (rank) | 55% (2nd) |
| 6% (2nd) | Big-time throw rate (rank) | 5% (7th) |
| 78% (5th) | Adjusted completion rate (rank) | 77.9% (6th) |
| 20 (3.2%) | Turnover-worthy plays (rate) | 22 (3%) |
🛡️ Defensive battle: Mike Macdonald vs. Mike Vrabel
The NFL has become a defensive league, and both teams playing in the Super Bowl are led by coaches with defensive backgrounds. However, one of them calls his teams defensive plays, which has been the biggest reason for his teams success.
Mike Macdonald could become the first defensive play-calling head coach to win a Super Bowl. And our Dustin Saracini's prediction to win Super Bowl 2026 is the Seahawks because of what Macdonald has built on the defensive side.
Seattle has a historically dominant defense with game-changers at every level, including rookie Nick Emmanwori. They have six defensive linemen with 40-plus pressures, including the second-most by a starting defensive tackle duo in the league (Leonard Williams and Byron Murphy have 108 combined).
That pass rush will be key against a New England offensive line starting two rookies. And while the Patriots' defense isn't near the level of Seattle's, it's still capable of stymying the Seahawks.
Much like his former coach, Bill Belichick, Vrabel has built a defense by prioritizing high-IQ players who bring a specific skill set to the field.
The Patriots' defensive lineup matches up well with Seattle, too. It has one of the best pass-rushing interior duos in the league (Milton Williams and Christian Barmore) and a top-tier cornerback (Christian Gonzalez).
I'd expect a low scoring Super Bowl.
Tale of the tape: Defense wins championships
| Seahawks | Stats | Patriots |
|---|---|---|
| -0.113 (1st) | EPA per play (rank) | -0.040 (11th) |
| -0.065 (5th) | EPA per dropback (rank) | -0.018 (10th) |
| -0.206 (1st) | EPA per rush (rank) | -0.077 (16th) |
| 40.1% (3rd) | Success rate (rank) | 44.9% (18th) |
| 47 | Sacks | 35 |
| 18 | Interceptions | 10 |
🔮 Early Super Bowl 2026 prediction
Seattle's defense is going to be the difference in the Super Bowl. As our C Jackson Cowart pointed out in his Seahawks vs. Patriots prediction, Macdonald's unit is a top-15 defense all-time by DVOA.
This is the toughest matchup of Maye's career, and we've seen the Patriots' offensive line look shaky throughout the playoffs. Maye has been sacked 15 times already in three playoff games.
Defense wins championships, and I have Seattle winning Super Bowl 60, 24-17.
❓ Super Bowl 2026 FAQs
What is the spread for Super Bowl 60?
The Seattle Seahawks are 4.5-point betting favorites against the New England Patriots for Super Bowl 60.
Where is Super Bowl 60 being played?
Super Bowl 60 between the Seattle Seahawks and New England Patriots is being played at Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara, Calif.
Who's playing the Super Bowl 60 halftime show?
Bad Bunny is headlining the Super Bowl 60 halftime show.
📃 Affiliate disclosure
Sportsbook Review may receive a commission if you sign up through our links. Not intended for use in MA. Bonuses not applicable in Ontario. 21+ only. (Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER)
Related Articles
