Steelers vs. Bengals Expert Picks for Thursday Night Football: TNF Player Props, TD Picks & Best Bets

⬆️ Over 42.5 (-115) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

The Bengals have the fourth-lowest pressure percentage (16%) even with Hendrickson in the lineup. That should allow Rodgers, who has been sacked the sixth-fewest times (9) for QBs with at least five starts, enough time in the pocket to dissect a Bengals defense with the third-worst DVOA.

Cincinnati's offense, meanwhile, showed signs of promise with the more calming presence of Joe Flacco under center, outscoring the Green Bay Packers 18-17 at Lambeau Field in the second half last week. The Bengals' two games at Paycor so far this season averaged 59.5 points. While I don't expect such a swollen total, I'm confident both teams will combine for at least 43 points, resulting in the Bengals' fifth Over in seven games.

🏗️ Aaron Rodgers Over 216.5 passing yards (-114) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

Rodgers eclipsed this total quite easily last week versus the Cleveland Browns - who own one of the best defenses in football - and now faces a secondary giving up 258 passing yards per game, the second-highest average in the league.

That bodes well for us and for Rodgers, who has seemingly found a groove after throwing for 235 yards and two touchdowns in Week 6.

💪 DK Metcalf to score anytime TD (+155) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

These +155 odds for Metcalf to score in a fifth straight game are a little baffling. He's played at least 79% of the offensive snaps in each outing, and the wideout has been targeted five-plus times in all but one game. He's logged 19 receptions for 356 yards and four touchdowns while averaging 11.5 yards per target and registering a 61.3% catch rate. He leads the Steelers with three red-zone targets, and Metcalf has caught each one (two touchdowns).

The Bengals allow opposing receivers to catch 65.2% of their targets at an average of 8.36 yards, with four touchdowns allowed to the position. My most significant worry in backing Metcalf is the team turning to the ground game too quickly as a 5.5-point betting favorite on the road. But with an Over/Under of 44.5, he should be a key piece of building an early lead.

🥇 Tee Higgins to score first TD (+1400) ⭐⭐⭐

Higgins has made his many dollars in the NFL while primarily establishing himself as one of the league's preeminent jump-ball specialists. The 6-foot-4, 220-pound wideout showcased that ability repeatedly en route to a career-high 10 touchdowns just last season.

Of course, that came before Joe Burrow went on the injured reserve again, with the Bengals' offense seemingly joining him. But as odd as it seems to view 40-year-old Joe Flacco as a savior, his arm strength and accuracy alone make him a sizeable upgrade over anyone else the Bengals could trot out in Burrow's absence, even if the signal-caller's feet are made of stone at this point.

🚀 Best Steelers vs. Bengals parlay for TNF

• Steelers -5.5 (-104) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
• Aaron Rodgers Over 216.5 passing yards (-114) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
• Ja'Marr Chase Over 70.5 receiving yards (-112) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: +597 via FanDuel ($10 to win $59.71)