Can Shedeur Sanders Break the Curse of Browns QBs in 1st NFL Start Today?

I'm breaking down everything you need to know about Shedeur Sanders' first NFL start today against the Las Vegas Raiders - including the tortured history of Cleveland quarterbacks, who have lost 17 consecutive times when making their debut start.

It's been 30 years since a Cleveland Browns quarterback won their first career start. Can Sanders buck that trend this weekend?

Unfortunately for Browns fans, I'm fading the fifth-round rookie this week as part of our NFL Week 12 predictions. Kickoff from Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas is set for 4:05 p.m. ET today (CBS), with the Browns a 3.5-point road underdog.

🟤 Curse of the Browns QB debut

On Sunday, Sanders will become the 42nd quarterback to start for the franchise, including the 18th signal-caller to make his NFL starting debut in a Browns uniform since the franchise returned to Cleveland in 1999.

Every single one of those previous quarterbacks - from Tim Couch to Dillon Gabriel - lost their starting debut by an average of 14.8 points. More than half of them lost in blowout fashion. Here's a full list of every QB to make his first start for the Browns since 1999:

They weren't all lopsided losses, with Baker Mayfield and Cody Kessler both losing in overtime. Though Mayfield's first regular-season action was actually a Thursday Night Football win over the Jets, he didn't start that game.

A few Browns quarterbacks actually held fourth-quarter leads, including Brady Quinn, Brandon Weeden, and Charlie Frye. That was most recently the case in Gabriel's starting debut earlier this season, only for the Minnesota Vikings to take the lead with 25 seconds left to secure a Week 5 win in London and add Gabriel's name to this ignominious list.

As you probably guessed, most of those starts - 15 of 17 - came from rookie quarterbacks. Perhaps Sanders should be thankful he doesn't have the Pittsburgh Steelers on the schedule this Sunday, who have handed Browns debutants four of those aforementioned defeats.

🤔 What to expect from Shedeur Sanders in 1st NFL start

Every football fan seems to have a strong opinion one way or the other on Sanders, and that is sure to manifest in plenty of wagers backing or fading the rookie passer this weekend.

Add his name to the infamous Browns QB jersey, and let's break down what to expect from Sanders' first NFL start by first exploring how he performed in relief in Week 11.

Sanders entered at halftime for Gabriel, who exited the contest with a concussion. Sanders went 4-16 for 47 yards with zero touchdowns, one interception, and two sacks taken across two quarters of action.

Even with that stat line, Myles Garrett and the Cleveland defense kept it close and gave the Browns' offense the opportunity to tie the contest late. But the Sanders-led unit stalled on their final possession at Baltimore's 26-yard line.

It was a dreadful first performance for the rookie quarterback, with an ugly 25% completion percentage, 2.9 yards per attempt, and 13.5 passer rating. That latter mark is the worst for a quarterback in their debut since Brandon Weeden for the Browns in 2012, per NFL.com's Kevin Patra.

To Sanders' credit, he was blunt in his self assessment after the game, saying, "I don't think I played good at all."

And the 23-year-old has reportedly been locked in on his preparation for Las Vegas this week. He's "treating this start like an exam he can't fail," an unnamed Browns player told The Athletic's Dianna Russini.

Sanders gets a more favorable matchup this weekend against the Raiders, who rank 24th in scoring defense, 19th in passing defense, and 25th in sacks. But based on what we saw from Sanders, we have to fade him ahead of his first start this weekend, and there's one bet in particular that has my attention.

🔮 Shedeur Sanders prediction and best bet

There's a reason Sanders opened fourth on the depth chart in training camp, and while he's drawing his first start this weekend out of necessity - Sanders and Gabriel are the only two quarterbacks on the active roster - the fifth-round pick hasn't demonstrated that he's ready for a heavy workload at this point in his career.

That's why I'm betting that Sanders finishes Under 28.5 passing attempts in his first start. I expect Cleveland's elite defense to keep this game close, which should allow the Browns' run game to remain a factor. I also highly doubt head coach Kevin Stefanski will even let Sanders drop back 29 times after last week's disastrous showing.

Las Vegas is allowing an average of 33.1 passing attempts per game, but that includes matchups against some of the league's top quarterbacks this season: Drake Maye, Justin Herbert, Patrick Mahomes, and Daniel Jones.

You can find the best price for this prop bet at BetMGM, which is offering Under 28.5 passing attempts at -105 odds (51.22% implied probability) while the rest of our best sports betting sites have the Under juiced as high as -128.

Lock in this price now and bank on Sanders having a conservative approach for the Browns in his starting debut. A winning $10 wager will result in a $9.52 profit.

Best bet: Shedeur Sanders Under 28.5 passing attempts (-105 via BetMGM)

Our LJ Blut offers three more winning plays for the rookie quarterback's first start in his Shedeur Sanders player props.

📺 How to watch Browns vs. Raiders

• Date: Sunday, Nov. 23
• Kickoff: 4:05 p.m. ET
• Location: Allegiant Stadium (Las Vegas)
• TV: CBS

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