Saints vs. Falcons Week 18 Picks: Will New Orleans Stay in Playoff Race?
The 8-8 New Orleans Saints and 7-9 Atlanta Falcons face off Sunday afternoon in an NFC South showdown. We're breaking down the betting matchup with our Saints-Falcons picks.
We'll preview this game and provide two great picks to add to your bankroll as we start 2022 the right way.
Here are my picks and predictions for the NFL Week 18 matchup between the Saints and Falcons (odds via BetMGM; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5 star scale).
Saints vs. Falcons Game Info
Date/Time: Sunday, Jan. 9, 4:25 p.m. ETTV: FOXLocation: Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, GAWeather: Indoors
Saints vs. Falcons Odds Analysis
Opening with a 3.5-point advantage in favor of the road Saints, we've seen this line swell to 4.5 points. It's clear that sharps expect the Saints to come out motivated as the seventh seed in the NFC hangs in the balance. A total 58% of tickets have continued to come in on the Saints at this number despite the public fading the Saints the entire time.
The total has dropped from opening at a reasonable 41.5 number. Getting that number was being spoiled. About 91% of the public and 62% of sharps hammered it down to as low as 39.5. I still think 39.5 is a reasonable number to go Under.
Saints vs. Falcons Picks
Falcons +4.5 (-110) ????Under 39.5 (-110) ??
SEE ALSO: Patriots vs. Dolphins Week 18 Picks
Saints vs. Falcons Predictions
Falcons +4.5 (-110)
We haven't seen the Falcons and Saints play each other since Nov. 7, but the 27-25 margin was telling. Atlanta won despite completely abandoning the run game, with 332 of their 366 yards coming through the air. While New Orleans has a stingy rush defense that ranks fourth in yards allowed, there's no denying the Falcons can unleash Cordarrelle Patterson as an X-factor.
This game will boil down to how well New Orleans can move the football. With three straight games with 280 total yards or less, it's safe to say they're far from a juggernaut. Atlanta is a bad overall club, but has shown a reasonable baseline of defense against units like New Orleans'.
Watch for this to be a field goal game either way. This may be Matt Ryan's final outing as a Falcon as well.
Under 39.5 (-110)
Their last matchup went well Over this number, but Trevor Siemian was starting for the Saints at the time. It's sad that even he's better than Taysom Hill at throwing the ball. The Saints have managed just 30 points over the last three games as their offense has shut down.
Of course, their defense is simply phenomenal. This will be a low-scoring game, and the only pathway to the Over is for the Saints to not care about defense. I don't foresee that considering how well Dennis Allen's defense has fared this season.
SEE ALSO: All picks and odds. Be sure to check out SportsbookReview.com’s community forums and betting tools.
Saints-Falcons picks made 1/6/2022 at 2:04 a.m. ET
