NFL 2022 Regular-Season Sacks Leader Picks: T.J. Watt Looking For 3-Peat

The NFL's sack leader last year was T.J. Watt for the second straight season. He racked up 22.5 sacks for the Pittsburgh Steelers. Here's a look at the best bets to lead the NFL in sacks this season.

There are several sportsbooks that offer futures markets where you can bet on who will lead the NFL in a particular statistical category. To see if there are any significant gaps between the projections and the betting markets, I decided to cross-reference these odds with the projections from FantasyPros, ESPN, and PFF.

Having compared the projections with the odds to lead the NFL in sacks, the following players stand out to me.

2022 NFL Regular-Season Sacks Leader Odds

Regular-Season Sacks Leader: Best Bets

• Brian Burns, Carolina Panthers (+4000 via FanDuel Sportsbook)
• Haason Reddick, Philadelphia Eagles (+10000 via DraftKings Sportsbook)

Burns (+4000)

In his fourth season in the NFL, the 24-year-old edge rusher from Florida State is being overlooked in the opening odds.

In the event that Brian Burns and Micah Parsons of the Dallas Cowboys switched teams, what would their odds be of leading the NFL in sacks? There are not many people who would be aware that Burns is actually projected to record more sacks than Parsons this season.

Despite being ranked sixth in sack projections, Burns is ranked 20th on the FanDuel odds board at +4000. There is no doubt you are seeing value in Burns's price relative to his projection as he is not as well-known as some of the other players in this market since he plays for the Carolina Panthers.

In the end, this is a market, and the sportsbooks are not expecting to have much liability associated with Burns. However, they should be careful about what they wish for because they are going to receive some liability from me since I do not believe Burns should be priced at +4000 to lead the NFL in sacks.

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Reddick (+10000)

There are times when you analyze the numbers and do not find anything worth betting on, and then there are times when you find a massive outlier among the odds. It appears that we have found a massive outlier in Haason Reddick, and my money will be on his +10000 odds at DraftKings.

You should take advantage of this price as soon as possible, as he is mispriced only at DraftKings, and this could be corrected very quickly. Compared to DraftKings, FanDuel and Caesars placed a much more accurate price tag on Reddick at +3000 and +2500, respectively.

Apart from the price advantage, I also believe that Reddick is capable of leading the NFL in sacks. During the last two seasons, he has accumulated the fifth-most sacks in the NFL. This offseason, the former Temple Owl returned to his hometown by joining the Philadelphia Eagles.

Considering that bettors are constantly seeking ways to back the Eagles, the mispricing on Reddick offers one opportunity to profit if you expect the Eagles to win a significant number of games this season. If the Eagles are to win games, their opponents will be forced to pass the ball a great deal. As a result, Reddick should have plenty of opportunities to rush the passer.

In addition, we have all seen how powerful rookie Jordan Davis will be on the inside for opposing offensive lines. If teams are forced to double-team Davis on the inside, imagine the pass-rushing opportunities Reddick could have on the outside.

Fade Chandler Jones (+2000 via FanDuel)

It is pretty obvious that there is a bias toward past winners and big names when comparing the projections to the odds for several players to lead the NFL in sacks. That is most evident in the odds for Chandler Jones.

In 2017, Jones led the NFL in sacks with 17 and came close to doing the same in 2019, when he had 19 and finished just behind Shaquil Barrett. As a result of Jones' history in this market, sportsbooks such as DraftKings opened his price at +1200, which is far too low.

During the two seasons in which Jones recorded 17 and 19 sacks, he rushed the passer over 600 times. Although Jones was very efficient last season, he rushed the passer only 480 times due to his advancing age.

Based on the odds board, there are several players who are past their prime but are being priced lower due to their previous performance.

Even at +2000, Jones is an easy fade, and this bias is something to keep in mind when evaluating other players. Shorter prices on past superstars are creating scenarios in which lesser-known commodities are experiencing longer prices, as we saw with Burns.

Where to Bet on 2022 NFL Futures

• FanDuel Sportsbook
• Caesars Sportsbook
• DraftKings Sportsbook
• PointsBet
• BetMGM

SEE ALSO: All picks, odds, and sports betting news. Be sure to check out SportsbookReview.com’s community forums and betting tools.

NFL sacks leader picks made 8/31/2022 at 3:14 p.m. ET