Ravens vs. Jets Week 1 NFL Picks: Baltimore's Resurgent Defense to Play Major Role

NFL Week 1 picks Baltimore Ravens vs New York Jets on September 11.
Mike Spector
Mike Spector

Last Updated: September 12, 2022 10:01 AM EDT • 4 minute read

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Joe Flacco becomes the third quarterback to start a season opener against a team they won the Super Bowl with, as he and the New York Jets host the Baltimore Ravens. We’re breaking down the betting with our Ravens-Jets picks.

The Ravens are coming off their first losing season (8-9) since 2015 and just their second such season since 2008. Meanwhile, the Jets begin Year 2 of the Robert Saleh era after going 4-13 last year. New York has won more than five games just once since 2016.

Here are our top picks for the NFL Week 1 game between the Baltimore Ravens and New York Jets (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook, Pointsbet, and FanDuel Sportsbook).    

Ravens vs. Jets Game Info

Date: Sunday, Sept. 11, 1:00 p.m. ET
TV: CBS
Location: Metlife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ
Weather: 81 degrees, 6% chance of precipitation, 6-mph WSW winds

Ravens vs. Jets Odds Analysis

This line has fluctuated with the news of Zach Wilson’s injury. At the beginning of the preseason, Baltimore was most commonly a 4.5-point favorite. However, the line has gotten as high as -7.5 with the news that Wilson will not play. Despite the line move, the Ravens have still received overwhelming betting support, garnering 86% of the bets and 85% of the handle.

Compared to the point spread, the total has not moved nearly as much, only fluctuating between 44.5 and 45. There has been great two-way action, as the Under has landed 51% of the bets and 52% of the cash.

Ravens vs. Jets Picks

Betting Ticket0908

Ravens vs. Jets Spread Pick

Jets +7.5 (-114) ★★

Though most will gloss over it, New York had a whopping seven players signed off waivers by other teams after its first round of roster cuts in the preseason. That speaks to the depth of the organization and the talent it is cultivating.

We are comfortable making this wager with Flacco under center, as he will not be compromised by a lack of game reps, considering he has made 176 starts in his 11-year NFL career.

Baltimore is worrisome, given the number of off-field distractions it has. Quarterback Lamar Jackson is acting as his own agent as he aims to restructure a long-term contract. Those talks have been ongoing through training camp, and though Jackson said there will be no negotiations once the season starts, it is fair to wonder how much attention those talks have taken away from the team’s preparation for the game.

Ravens head coach John Harbaugh is 10-4 against the spread in Week 1 while Flacco is 0-5 as a starter for the Jets, so consider this a contrarian play. However, we would not make this wager at +7 or lower, so head to FanDuel for the lone sportsbook that is still offering this good of a number on New York.

Check out the latest comprehensive and most trusted Sportsbook Reviews by SBR.

Ravens vs. Jets O/U Pick

Under 44.5 (-107) ★★★★

Baltimore’s unusual 8-9 record was largely a product of various injuries, particularly in the secondary. The Ravens' pass defense last season was the NFL’s worst in yards per attempt (8.0), passing yards per game (278.9), and 20-plus-yard completions (74). The 74 plays of 20-plus yards allowed were the most any team has allowed since 2012. In addition, no team allowed more yards after the catch per completion (6.4).

Baltimore will benefit from a healthier Marcus Peters, and newly acquired safety Marcus Williams is a budding star. In addition, we expect Marlon Humphrey to return to All-Pro form, which should make gaining yards through the air against this Ravens defense a nightmare.

Ravens vs. Jets Prop Pick

Jackson Anytime Touchdown (+125) ★★

Jackson has scored 21 rushing touchdowns in 49 career starts. In addition, he accounted for 31% of his team’s rushing yards in 2021, which was the second-most among all quarterbacks.

Jackson’s .769 winning percentage is the third-best in the Super Bowl era (since 1966) by a quarterback with a minimum of 40 starts. Thus, we expect him to take matters into his own hands again in Week 1, as J.K. Dobbins is questionable and newly acquired Kenyan Drake is likely not up to speed with the playbook.

Where to Bet on Ravens vs. Jets Picks

  Here are our top-rated sportsbooks:  

Ravens-Jets picks made 9/8/2022 at 6:01 a.m. ET

Written by:
Mike Spector
Mike started in the sports writing industry in July 2019, and gained a lot of followers in his first year after finishing with the No. 2 overall record in an annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an Over/Under and moneyline perspective. Mike is an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, tennis, and all college sports. In his opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and he's especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. Mike's a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." When making wagers, Mike leans on his NFL experience and always scours the best odds at all of the major sports betting sites, where he mostly sifts through DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and bet365. He's tried several others and is of the firm belief that bettors should not just stick to one sportsbook, as there is always likely better value to be had with the same wager. In addition, while Mike received his undergraduate degree from Villanova University, he has no issue betting against the Wildcats when it comes to college basketball wagering, and suggests other bettors should always put their “head” before their “hearts.”