How QB Injuries Are Impacting NFL Week 3 Odds & Player Props

If you're a fan of the NFL, you've noticed an epidemic of quarterback injuries over the first two weeks of the season, with none bigger than Joe Burrow of the Cincinnati Bengals.

As we flip the page to the NFL odds for Week 3, we examine the impact of Burrow's loss, Jayden McDaniels' knee injury, J.J. McCarthy's ankle sprain, as well as Justin Fields' concussion, and target one player prop you need to play in each game.

Let's dive in and discuss how QB injuries are impacting NFL Week 3 odds and player props, and drop our best NFL picks.

Here are my best plays for Week 3 with best odds via our NFL player prop odds tool:

Bengals 

• Loss: Joe Burrow (Grade 3 turf toe)
• Estimated recovery: Three months (late-season return possible)
• New starter: Jake Browning
• Biggest player prop impact: Ja'Marr Chase
• Best bet for Week 3: Ja'Marr Chase Over 69.5 receiving yards (-114)

Now, don't get me wrong here, the loss of Joe Burrow is huge for the Cincinnati Bengals. Burrow underwent toe surgery on Friday and was subsequently placed on the IR, but does that necessarily mean you should avoid wideout Ja'Marr Chase, a preseason NFL Offensive Player of the Year odds favorite, at all costs in Week 3? Absolutely not.

For the first two weeks, Chase's receiving props ranged from 82.5 on the low side, all the way up to 87.5 on the high side. Entering Sunday morning, you can find him trading at as low as 69.5. That is a massive drop with Jake Browning now at the helm - the connection between these two has been on full display before, most notably in 2023 when Burrow went down with a wrist injury.

Browning leans heavily on Chase, who's recorded at least seven targets nine times in the 12 games the 29-year-old backup has started for the Bengals. Look no further than last week to see the connection these two have established over the years, when Chase had 16 targets and ultimately recorded 14 catches for 165 yards and a touchdown. 

I'm beyond amazed this line is sitting at just 69.5 yards when these two have shown time and time again that their connection is real. Jump on this before the line moves.

Super bowl odds movement: If you're still a believer in Burrow returning this season, which he should, the Bengals have dropped to +8000 on the Super Bowl oddsboard after beginning the season at +1900. Now would be the time to bet this future if Browning can hold down the ship and guide the Bengals to at least a wild-card playoff berth.

Commanders

• Loss: Jayden Daniels (sprained knee)
• Estimated recovery: At least one week
• New starter: Marcus Mariota
• Biggest player prop impact: Deebo Samuel, Terry McLaurin, Jacory Croskey-Merritt
• Best bet for Week 3: Terry McLaurin Over 45.5 receiving yards

This is another spot to take advantage of NFL prop betting sites straight up undervaluing a backup quarterback. 

Through two weeks, McLaurin's receiving number ranged from 52.5 on the low end, to 60.5 on the high side, so we're seeing another substantial drop heading into Week 3 due to a quarterback injury. However, Mariota has started two games with McLaurin since 2024, and the receiver flew over this number both times.

If you think the Commanders are going to limit Mariota's attempts, think again - the quarterback had an average of 20 attempts over the pair of games he started. McLaurin's numbers? He caught all six targets for 98 yards against the Carolina Panthers on Oct. 20, 2024, before hauling in eight of 12 targets for 62 yards and a touchdown when Mariota returned as the starter in January 2025. I rest my case.

Vikings

• Loss: J.J. McCarthy (high ankle sprain)
• Estimated recovery: 2-to-4 weeks
• New starter: Carson Wentz
• Biggest player prop impact: Justin Jefferson
• Best bet for Week 3: Justin Jefferson anytime touchdown (+120)

This is one of those rare occasions where wide receiver Justin Jefferson's anytime touchdown scorer odds have actually shortened with the backup quarterback in (he was +155 to score in Week 2).

This isn't shade thrown at J.J. McCarthy, but are we convinced Carson Wentz shouldn't already be starting in Minnesota? McCarthy has played just one good quarter of football all season, and when he returns, he might be stapled to the bench.

You better believe Wentz is hunting for that starting job now that McCarthy is down potentially for four weeks, and he'll be spoonfeeding Jefferson red-zone targets in the meantime. He's one of my best anytime TD scorer predictions as a result.

I'm all over this upgrade at quarterback for the Vikings, and you should be betting NFL player props in Week 3 accordingly.

Jets

• Loss: Justin Fields (concussion)
• Estimated recovery: 2-3 weeks
• New starter: Tyrod Taylor 
• Biggest player prop impact: Garrett Wilson
• Best bet for Week 3: Garrett Wilson Over 64.5 receiving yards

With Justin Fields down and Tyrod Taylor in, Garrett Wilson's receiving numbers moved about 10 yards higher compared to the first two weeks of the season, as the Jets will shift into a more pass-heavy offense.

Taylor stepped in during Week 2 and immediately reignited the passing attack, going 7 of 11 for 56 yards and a passing touchdown. Nobody benefited more than Wilson, who finished the game with four catches for 50 yards.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are on deck for Week 3, which might turn into a positive game script for Wilson. The Jets will likely play catch-up in the second half.

I'm expecting Taylor to attempt at least 30 passes (the books have him at 27.5) - to compare, Fields attempted just 22 passes in the Week 1 shootout against Pittsburgh. Look for Wilson to soar over this number in the new-look offense.

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