NFL QB Rankings: Which QBs Are Most Clutch Entering Divisional Round?
We're down to the final eight teams as I provide my updated NFL QB rankings, assessing which of the remaining signal callers are the most clutch entering this weekend's Divisional Round.
Nobody was more clutch than Josh Allen during Wild Card Weekend, an obvious assertion as undeniable as the Superman-like QB himself. But where do the other seven rank, and how will each QB matchup unfold this weekend? The analysis below is part of our extensive Divisional Round predictions.
🏈 NFL Divisional Round QB rankings: Who's most clutch?
The Clutch Factor power rankings below are graded out of 100, based on various statistics from the Wild Card Round. Use these rankings to help you navigate the NFL playoff bracket.
**As Sam Darnold and Bo Nix were idle during Wild Card Weekend, I used their regular-season Clutch QB ranking, with a dash of gut feel sprinkled on top.
| Rank | Quarterback | Clutch Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Josh Allen (Bills) | 90 |
| 2 | Caleb Williams (Bears) | 77 |
| 3 | Matthew Stafford (Rams) | 74 |
| 4 | Drake Maye (Patriots) | 69 |
| 5 | Bo Nix** (Broncos) | N/A |
| 6 | Brock Purdy (49ers) | 65 |
| 7 | Sam Darnold** (Seahawks) | N/A |
| 8 | C.J. Stroud | 48 |
For last season's rankings and clutch ratings methodology, see our initial NFL clutch ratings.
➗ Saturday Divisional Round QB matchups
Check out the Divisional Round betting odds and schedule for all four forthcoming playoff games.
Bills vs. Broncos: Josh Allen (1) vs. Bo Nix (5)
After watching Caleb Williams and Bryce Young compete in their first playoff game, Nix must be going off the walls with anticipation. The sophomore QB will look to emulate Williams, who defied the odds by winning his playoff debut.
Why fade Bo Nix and the Broncos?
- Since 2003, QBs opening their playoff account are 29-46 ATS, for a 39% cover rate
- Nix was the second-worst under pressure during the regular season. With Aaron Rodgers eliminated, Nix adopts the worst regular-season rating of the remaining QBs
- Despite boasting the second-most fourth-quarter comebacks in the regular season (5), Nix has the worst fourth-quarter rating of the remaining QBs
Why back Josh Allen and the Bills?
- When trailing against the Jaguars, Allen went 14-for-16 for a 133 passer rating and three TDs
- Allen sits at the top of every statistic from Wild Card Weekend when determining his 100% rating
- Allen enters on a six-game wild card/Divisional Round winning streak
- In the wild-card win, he became the first QB to complete at least 80% of his passes and rush for multiple touchdowns in a playoff game
- I also backed Allen and the Bills in my picks against the spread for the Divisional Round
🏇 Looking for reasons to back Nix and the Broncos?
The Bills escaped Jacksonville despite a season-low 79 rushing yards. The NFL's best rushing offense was neutralized by the Jaguars' top-ranked rush defense. The matchup doesn't get any easier this week against the league's No. 2 rush defense, and it will be more difficult for Josh Allen to rescue Buffalo this time around.
- via Liam Fox's Bills vs. Broncos prediction
49ers vs. Seahawks: Brock Purdy (6) vs. Sam Darnold (7)
Everything is seemingly stacked against Brock Purdy and his 49ers. Struck hard by the injury bug, the 49ers will be without star tight end George Kittle, and they will play the Seahawks on just five days' rest.
However, Ricky Pearsall, who missed the wild-card game, returned to practice on Tuesday. His presence would provide a massive boost for San Francisco's depleted receiving corps.
Why back Brock Purdy and the 49ers to cover?
- Purdy improved to 5-0 on the road in the win over the defending champs
- Since returning from injury, Purdy is 7-1
- Purdy orchestrated a fourth-quarter comeback in the Week 1 win over the Seahawks at Lumen Field
Why back Sam Darnold and the Seahawks to win?
- In the regular season, Darnold had a 91.7 overall rating (via PFF) when kept clean in the pocket, which bodes well against a San Francisco team that had the third-lowest pressure percentage
- Darnold has won five straight at Lumen Field, helping propel the Seahawks to the top of the Super Bowl odds leaderboard
- Thanks to his top-ranked defense (DVOA), Darnold has more margin for error
⛏️ 49ers vs. Seahawks prediction
- I'm backing the 49ers (+7.5) to cover the spread, which I covered more extensively in my 49ers vs. Seahawks prediction
➗ Sunday Divisional Round QB matchups
Texans vs. Patriots: C.J. Stroud (8) vs. Drake Maye (4)
Drake Maye has proven me wrong too many times this season to bet against him in the Divisional Round, so here's my Texans vs. Patriots prediction, showcasing why jumping on New England's bandwagon is overdue.
Why fade C.J. Stroud and the Texans?
- Stroud became the first player in NFL history to fumble five times and win a playoff game
- While he'll assuredly be more safe-handed, I have more confidence in Maye and his consistently productive offense
- Stroud was by far the worst under pressure in the Wild Card Round
Why back Drake Maye and the Patriots?
- Despite playing in his second season, Maye rarely appears overawed by the occasion. That will be put to the test against the Texans' game-wrecking defense, but I have no reason to doubt him now
- Maye had the second-best offensive rating (via PFF) of the winning QBs during Wild Card Weekend
- He is 7-1 at Gillette Stadium in the last eight games, with the only loss coming against the Bills
Rams vs. Bears: Matthew Stafford (3) vs. Caleb Williams (2)
A No. 3 vs. No. 2 matchup awaits when Matthew Stafford and Caleb Williams square off from Soldier Field on Sunday. It's one of the most intriguing QB matchups as they entered the playoffs as the two most clutch QBs, with Stafford ahead of Williams.
With Williams now slightly superior, at least according to these rankings after Wild Card Weekend, who will get the last laugh?
Why back Caleb Williams and the Bears to cover?
- Williams lived up to his comeback-kid hype against the Green Bay Packers, securing his league-leading seventh fourth-quarter comeback
- He was the second-best during Wild Card Weekend under pressure, trailing Allen
- He had the second-best overall offensive grade (via PFF), again playing second fiddle to last season's MVP
- Williams improved to 4-1 in the last five at Solder Field in games decided by six points or fewer
- If you haven't seen the 4th down conversion that saved the Bears' season, I implore you to do so
Why back Matthew Stafford and the Rams to win?
- Stafford is 6-2 in his last eight playoff starts
- He had the second-best QB rating (via Pro Football Reference) during Wild Card Weekend
- Stafford orchestrated three fourth-quarter comebacks in the playoffs, one of which occurred last week in Carolina
- He has 11 playoff starts under his belt, compared to Williams' one
🐻 Rams vs. Bears prediction
Chicago's never-say-die persona is consistently on display, as Johnson's team has won seven of 10 games decided by five points or fewer. Two of the three defeats occurred in Weeks 1 and 18. Ten of the Bears' 18 games were decided by five points or fewer, another example of their unsurpassed ability to keep things close.
- via my Rams vs. Bears prediction
📃 Affiliate disclosure
Sportsbook Review may receive a commission if you sign up through our links. Not intended for use in MA. Bonuses not applicable in Ontario. 21+ only. (Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER)
Related Articles
