NFL Playoff QB Rankings | Which QBs Are the Most Clutch Entering Wild Card Round?
Our NFL playoff QB rankings take stock of which gunslingers are the most clutch entering Wild Card Weekend.
It's the time of year when top-tier QBs can make all the difference, pushing and willing their team over the line when there is nothing else to choose between opponents. Teams with the most clutch QBs have a decisive advantage, especially in the latter stages of close games. So, which of the 14 remaining QBs had the most clutch regular seasons, and will they carry that success into the playoffs when the stakes are highest?
The analysis below is part of our NFL wild-card predictions.
🏈 NFL playoff QB rankings: Who's most clutch?
The Clutch Factor power rankings below are graded out of 100 and are based on each quarterback's cumulative performances throughout the season. Use these rankings to help you navigate the NFL playoff bracket.
| Rank | Quarterback | Clutch Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Matthew Stafford (Rams) | 90 |
| 2 | Caleb Williams (Bears) | 89 |
| 3 | Josh Allen (Bills) | 88 |
| 4 | Brock Purdy (49ers) | 87 |
| 5 | Drake Maye (Patriots) | 86 |
| 6 | Jordan Love (Packers) | 85 |
| 7 | Bo Nix (Broncos) | 84 |
| 8 | Jalen Hurts (Eagles) | 80 |
| 9 | Trevor Lawrence (Jaguars) | 79 |
| 10 | Sam Darnold (Seahawks) | 77 |
| 11 | Justin Herbert (Chargers) | 76 |
| 12 | Aaron Rodgers (Packers) | 74 |
| 13 | Bryce Young (Panthers) | 72 |
| 14 | C.J. Stroud (Texans) | 71 |
For last season's rankings and clutch ratings methodology, see our initial NFL clutch ratings.
🃏 Saturday Wild Card Round QB matchups
Check out the Wild Card Round betting odds and schedule for all six forthcoming playoff games.
🐏 Rams vs. 🐾 Panthers: Matthew Stafford (1) vs. Bryce Young (13)
A mismatch on paper sees MVP odds favorite Stafford take on third-year QB Young, who will be making his first playoff start. I expect Stafford to show why he's the probable MVP at Bank of America Stadium on Saturday, which I outlined in my Rams vs. Panthers predictions.
Why is Matthew Stafford the most clutch QB entering the playoffs?
Stafford finished the regular season as the most clutch QB for several key reasons:
- Of the 14 playoff QBs, Stafford was the best in red-zone efficiency and fourth-quarter rating
- He is the third-best under pressure, according to PFF, and he might have to show it against a Panthers team that blitzed at a higher rate (22.1%) than eight of the playoff participants
- Stafford has the third-best rating when trailing
Where can Bryce Young hurt the Rams most?
- If the Panthers are behind but within reach entering the fourth quarter, the situation could get sticky for the visiting Rams, as Young orchestrated four fourth-quarter comebacks in the regular season
- Young's most impressive fourth-quarter comeback win came against Saturday's opponent. The Panthers scored the game-winning TD against the Rams with 6:34 remaining thanks to a 43-yard TD pass on 4th and 2
🧀 Packers vs. 🐻 Bears: Jordan Love (6) vs. Caleb Williams (2)
I'm backing Williams, the second-most clutch QB, to win his first playoff game, which I detailed in the Packers vs. Bears predictions.
Why back Caleb Williams and the Bears?
- Williams is the leader of the cardiac kids, with the sophomore gunslinger orchestrating six fourth-quarter comebacks, the most of any QB this season
- His two most impressive comebacks came against the Minnesota Vikings in Week 11 and the Packers in Week 16
- Williams would have made it seven fourth-quarter comebacks had he chose the right option on the last play of the game in Green Bay in Week 14. He'll learn from that mistake and use it as motivation
Where can Jordan Love hurt the Bears most?
- The Bears are ranked ninth of the playoff teams in red zone defense, which could be ominous considering Love is the second-best of the remaining QBs in red-zone efficiency
💡 Wild Card Round predictions
Want more NFL betting advice? Check out all of our NFL analysis and expert predictions for every game during Wild Card Weekend.
🃏 Sunday Wild Card Round QB matchups
🦬 Bills vs. 🐆 Jaguars: Josh Allen (3) vs. Trevor Lawrence (9)
If you're slightly surprised that Trevor Lawrence isn't higher on the pecking order, you're not alone. The 26-year-old enters Sunday's game on an eight-game win streak. He threw 15 TD passes compared to just one pick in the final six games of the season.
Why fade Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars?
- Lawrence has the worst fourth-quarter rating and the second-worst red-zone efficiency of the remaining QBs
- Only Herbert is less efficient in the red zone
- He's thrown five interceptions in two playoff games
Why back Josh Allen and the Bills?
- Three of Allen's four fourth-quarter comebacks came in his final seven starts, the most impressive of which occurred in New England against the AFC East champions. That performance was quintessential Allen
- Of the remaining QBs, Allen has the second-best fourth-quarter rating and is the third-best when trailing
- Allen has won the last five wild card and divisional-round games
⬆️ Bills vs. Jaguars predictions: Over 51.5
The Jaguars' offense has been red-hot during their current eight-game winning streak, averaging 33.6 points during that stretch. Meanwhile, the Bills finished with the fourth-ranked scoring offense and have averaged nearly 30 points per game over their last three playoff runs (it's largely been Buffalo's defense that's let it down in the postseason).
- via Liam Fox's Bills vs. Jaguars predictions
⛏️ 49ers vs. 🦅 Eagles: Brock Purdy (4) vs. Jalen Hurts (8)
Our Dustin Saracini fancies the San Francisco 49ers, led by Mr. Now Relevant, to at least keep things close in Philly, which he goes over in his 49ers vs. Eagles predictions.
And I wholeheartedly agree, thanks, at least in part, to Purdy's exceptional play since returning from an extended injury layoff.
Why back Brock Purdy and the 49ers to keep it close?
- Purdy is the best of the remaining QBs under pressure, albeit over a smaller sample size
- He is 4-0 on the road, including the improbable comeback win against Seattle in Week 1
- He's 7-2 overall, with only one defeat by more than five points (13-3 in the Week 18 defeat to the Seahawks)
Why back Jalen Hurts and the Eagles on the moneyline?
- Hurts is 6-2 in his previous eight playoff games and has won five straight at Lincoln Financial Field in do-or-die games
- Of the remaining QBs, Hurts is the second-most efficient in the red zone
- He ran for at least 70 yards in two of the previous three playoff games, including 72 against the Chiefs in the Super Bowl
⚡️ Chargers vs. 🪖 Patriots: Justin Herbert (11) vs. Drake Maye (5)
One of the most fascinating wild-card matchups features Drake Maye in his first playoff game and Justin Herbert, who is searching for his first postseason victory.
Will Maye's MVP-caliber regular season permeate the playoffs?
- It's the question on everybody's mind. Can the sophomore acquit himself with the composure he played with throughout the regular season? After seeing Maye unaffected by high-pressure moments, there's no reason to think the playoffs will get the better of him
- Maye had the best ranking when trailing and is 6-1 in the last seven home games
- He had one fourth-quarter comeback, which occurred against the Baltimore Ravens.
Can Herbert win first playoff game in third attempt?
- Herbert's No. 11 ranking is largely due to the litany of injuries his offensive line suffered throughout the season
- He is 0-2 in the playoffs and performed woefully last season in Houston, throwing four picks
- Herbert has the third-worst fourth-quarter rating of the remaining QBs
⬇️ Chargers vs. Patriots predictions: Under 46.5
The math is simple here: the Chargers will have difficulties moving the ball against a strong pass defense in New England (and with the worst offensive line in football), and the Patriots' offense will likely have some difficulties scoring against Los Angeles' fifth-ranked defense.
The Chargers haven't given up more than 20 points in six straight weeks, and on the other side, I'm expecting Justin Herbert to dink and dunk all night long with limited time in the pocket. What does this all add up to? This game flying under the total.
- via Dustin Saracini's Chargers vs. Patriots prediction
🃏 Monday Wild Card Round QB matchup
🐂 Texans vs. 🏗️ Steelers: C.J. Stroud (14) vs. Aaron Rodgers (12)
If the Pittsburgh Steelers lose to the Houston Texans, will Aaron Rodgers retire? It's one of the most talked about storylines entering Wild Card Weekend.
Why fade Aaron Rodgers and the Steelers?
- Rodgers has the worst rating under pressure, and while the Texans don't blitz a lot, he'll struggle to find downfield options against the second-best defensive pass DVOA
- The Texans have the fifth-most sacks of the playoffs teams (48)
- I'm backing the Texans to win, which I detailed in our NFL picks against the spread
Why back C.J. Stroud and the Texans?
- Stroud improved markedly down the stretch, throwing eight TDs to just two picks since Week 14
- While Stroud's increased confidence will help, this game will be decided by the Texans' game-wrecking defense
💡 Texans vs. Steelers predictions: Texans -3 (-120)
The Texans' average margin of victory during their nine-game winning streak is 6.9 points, giving enough of a buffer. Yes, DK Metcalf will be back from his suspension, but a vicious Texans pass rush that finished tied for seventh leaguewide with 47 sacks will make pushing the ball downfield a steep challenge.
- via Sean Tomlinson's Texans vs. Steelers prediction
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