2022 Pittsburgh Steelers Team Futures Odds, Picks and Preview: Super Bowl, Win Total and Playoff Predictions

Mike Randle

Last Updated: August 1, 2022 2:35 AM EDT • 3 min 16 sec read. Twitter link Google News Link

BALTIMORE, MARYLAND - JANUARY 09: Najee Harris #22 of the Pittsburgh Steelers celebrates after a play in over time in the game against the Baltimore Ravens at M&T Bank Stadium on January 09, 2022 in Baltimore, Maryland. Patrick Smith/Getty Images/AFP (Photo by Patrick Smith / GETTY IMAGES NORTH AMERICA / Getty Images via AFP)

Will head coach Mike Tomlin be able to continue the Pittsburgh Steelers' success with a new quarterback under center? Here are our Steelers 2022 odds, picks, and preview.

The Steelers start the season in unfamiliar territory. Future Hall of Fame quarterback Ben Roethlisberger has retired, leaving as a two-time Super Bowl Champion. His replacement? One of Mason Rudolph, Mitchell Trubisky, or first-round rookie Kenny Pickett. Pittsburgh finished either first or second in the AFC North for nine consecutive seasons.

The AFC North was turned upside-down in 2021. The preseason favorite, Cleveland Browns, finished third, with the Baltimore Ravens finishing last for the first time under head coach John Harbaugh. The Steelers ground their way to second place in Roethlisberger’s final season, while the usually bottom-dwelling Cincinnati Bengals reached the Super Bowl as AFC Champions. How should we bet the Steelers as they try to win their fourth division title in the last seven seasons?

Below, we preview the 2022 season for the Pittsburgh Steelers with a look at their futures odds and make our top picks (odds via FanDuel Sportsbook, DraftKings Sportsbook, and Caesars Sportsbook).

Pittsburgh Steelers' 2022 Futures Odds

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Pittsburgh Steelers 2022 Picks

Over 7.5 wins (+115 via Caesars Sportsbook)Najee Harris Under 1200.5 rushing yards (-125 via DraftKings)Pat Freiermuth Over 555.5 receiving yards (-115 via DraftKings)Chase Claypool Under 750.5 receiving yards (-112 via FanDuel)

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Harris Under 1200.5 rushing yards (-125)

Fade the big season.

On the surface, Najee Harris’ 1,200 rushing yards as a rookie seem very impressive. However, his 3.8 true yards per carry ranked only 53rd among all running backs, according to PlayerProfile.com, while his 307 carries ranked second only to Indianapolis Colts running back Jonathan Taylor. Pittsburgh’s offensive line projects as one of the league’s worst yet again, ranking 30th per Pro Football Focus' preseason rankings. Harris ranked third among running backs in stuffed runs last year, can we really expect that to improve amid huge changes on the offensive line?

Harris ranked first in snap share and opportunity share among all running backs as a rookie; an almost impossible feat to repeat for any running back. With either Rudolph or Trubisky under center, I project an increase in quarterback runs and short/intermediate passes. With four games against the tough run defenses of Baltimore and Cincinnati, I doubt Harris beats last year’s magnificent rushing performance.

The juice (-125) is low enough to warrant a substantial wager against Harris exceeding this total.

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Over 7.5 wins (+115)

The betting rule for the Steelers has been clear through Tomlin’s first 15 seasons as head coach: back Pittsburgh as an underdog. Not only is backing Tomlin as an underdog a great weekly investment, but he has also always produced at least a .500 record in Pittsburgh. Given Roethlisberger’s arm strength limitations last season, the move to a new quarterback may actually be an offensive improvement.

The Steelers' win total is hovering around 7-7.5 wins, but Caesars is the only sportsbook offering plus odds on them going over 7.5 wins. I would also support the DraftKings alternate line of eight wins at +175, which would get a push with an 8-9 record. I’m grabbing the +115 odds, that still wins if Tomlin has his first losing season with the Steelers.

With a strong cadre of offensive weapons and a defense that led the league in sacks (55) in 2021, I love getting plus money on Pittsburgh to simply finish one game under .500 on a 17-game schedule.

Freiermuth Over 555.5 receiving yards (-115)

The critics of this bet will say tight end Pat Freiermuth is the fourth option on a run-first offense with a questionable quarterback. I counter that Freiermuth is a 23-year-old tight end with the same athletic profile as former Pittsburgh standout Heath Miller.

Despite limited speed (4.77 40-yard dash), Freiermuth totaled 60 receptions and 497 targets in his rookie season. He needs to average just 33 yards per game to crest this number, and he tallied the fourth-most red-zone targets (18) of any NFL tight end last season.

Pittsburgh does not want Trubisky taking shots down the field, but attacking defenses in the short to intermediate areas of the field. That’s where Freiermuth resides. I’m not worried about wide receivers Chase Claypool or rookie George Pickens siphoning enough targets to keep the second-year Penn State product under this prop line.

Claypool Under 750.5 receiving yards (-115)

I’ve seen enough of Claypool to know his nine-touchdown rookie season was an outlier. As Diontae Johnson expands his role as the team’s clear WR1, Claypool will be left to battle Pickens for the secondary wideout targets.

Claypool has ranked in the top 20 in deep targets in each of his first two seasons, including third during his inaugural NFL campaign. However, in Trubisky’s last season with the Chicago Bears (2020), he ranked just 35th among all quarterbacks in deep ball completion percentage. This pick is tethered to Freiermuth’s Over, and is a contrarian play for a receiver that reached at least 860 receiving yards in each of his first two seasons.

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