NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 5 Best Bets & ATS Predictions for Every Game

Week 4 went as smoothly as the Houston Texans' home outing against the lowly Tennessee Titans as I offer my NFL picks against the spread for the 14-game Week 5 docket.

I had an 11-5 record last week, improving my season total to 39-25. This week's NFL picks feature three headlining matchups, where I back the Kansas City Chiefs (-3), Seattle Seahawks (-3), and Detroit Lions (-9.5) with my picks against the spread.

The below analysis is part of the NFL predictions for Week 5. 

🏈 NFL picks against the spread: Week 5 ATS predictions

NFL picks against the spread based on the latest NFL odds and subject to change; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale.

💰 My best Week 5 ATS picks

Track the latest NFL scores for line movement and matchup info.

🔴 Chiefs (-3) vs. Jaguars ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Who's betting against Patrick Mahomes after Sunday's four TD performance? Mahomes ripped to shred a shorthanded Baltimore Ravens defense at home, and his performance returned him to a familiar place, smack-dab in the middle of the MVP odds conversation.

With two consecutive wins, the Chiefs roll into EverBank Stadium with restored confidence and a healthy Xavier Worthy, who made a triumphant return to the lineup last week with 83 receiving yards.

If that's not enough, the Chiefs have won eight in a row against Jacksonville, four of which with Mahomes under center. All of those victories came by at least five points. 

Caesars and FanDuel offer the Chiefs at -3, with other best sports betting sites at -3.5. I'm taking the former before it's no longer available, and a winning $10 bet at FanDuel will yield a profit of $8.47. 

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🦁 Lions (-9.5) vs. Bengals ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Aside from the Tennessee Titans, there is no other team I have less confidence in than the hapless Cincinnati Bengals. I'd be more shocked to see Jake Browning start than somebody who sticks a wet finger in a live electric socket.

Then again, his most likely replacement, Brett Rypien, doesn't inspire much confidence either.

The Bengals failed to possess the ball in Denver's half after an opening drive that resulted in their only three points. While I'm not accusing anyone of capitulating, I've seen more effort from a hungover middle-aged softball team.  

Meanwhile, the Lions' roar is becoming louder each week.

They have the fourth-best offensive DVOA and are tied for the third-best offensive EPA per play. That doesn't bode well for a Bengals defense that has the third-worst defensive DVOA and was humiliated in the Mile High City. 

DraftKings has already moved the spread from 9.5 to 10 points, so I'm off to BetMGM or FanDuel, both of which offer -115 odds. 

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🟢 Seahawks (-3) vs. Buccaneers ⭐⭐⭐⭐

The Seattle Seahawks are 3-1 ATS and have played some inspired football recently. Apart from inexplicably allowing the Arizona Cardinals back into their Week 4 TNF game, Sam Darnold and Co., appear to be the real deal. 

The Seahawks now have the top-ranked defensive DVOA and are among the top 10 in defensive EPA per play. While their defense is as violent and relentless as it comes, the offense also deserves praise, boasting the sixth-best DVOA ranking. 

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are an excellent football team, but injuries have impacted their progress. While there is light at the end of the tunnel for their offensive line, concerns have surfaced over Bucky Irving's health. He will have an MRI on an undisclosed injury.

Even if it's positive news, I can't see him flying into the Week 5 clash unencumbered. That's especially disconcerting against one of the league's best defenses. 

Of the best sports betting sites, DraftKings and FanDuel still offer the Seahawks at -3. The former has the better value, where a winning $10 bet yields a $8.93 profit. 

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