NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 3 ATS Predictions for Every Game

My NFL picks against the spread went 12-4 ATS last week, and we move on to Week 3 with picks for another every game on a full 16-game slate, including my three feature picks.

The Denver Broncos, Dallas Cowboys, Houston Texans, and New Orleans Saints prevented the clean sweep with our NFL picks last week - all in their heartbreaking or calamitous fashion. But we'll turn the page and look for better fortune in Week 3. 

The ATS picks, which are 19-13 overall, complement the NFL predictions for Week 3. 

🏈 NFL picks against the spread: Week 3 ATS predictions

NFL picks against the spread based on the latest NFL odds; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale.

💰 My best NFL Week 3 ATS picks

Track the latest NFL scores for line movement and matchup info.

🟢 Seahawks (-7) vs. Saints ⭐⭐⭐⭐

If Spencer Rattler can't secure an ATS cover against a San Francisco 49ers team that had more injuries than a full physiotherapy waiting room, I fear the worst for the New Orleans Saints. (Yes, that is the smell of sour grapes emitting from your smartphone).

He's 0-8 as a starter, and none of those defeats, excluding last week's 5-point loss, has been by less than seven.

He has lost his three away starts by an average of 20 points, and now the embattled 24-year-old will have to deal with the raucous environment of Lumen Field against the sixth-best run defense through two weeks (PFF).

While the Seahawks' defense hasn't been elite overall in the early goings, they have the personnel and potential to be top-10 DVOA unit. As long as Sam Darnold can avoid multiple turnovers, I don't foresee Rattler keeping proceedings within a converted score. Of the best sports betting sites, FanDuel (-122) is the only one offering -7. 

⚡️ Chargers (-2.5) vs. Broncos ⭐⭐⭐⭐

I backed the Chargers in both their games, and I'm going back to the well in Week 3. While they committed a few more errors against Las Vegas and will almost assuredly have to make do without the injured Khalil Mack, there's a ton to like about Jim Harbaugh's team. 

Mack represents an irreplaceable loss, but Harbaugh built this team knowing the importance of depth and having like-for-sort-of-like replacements. Bud Dupree and Caleb Murphy played well in his absence and should make life uncomfortable for Bo Nix. 

Speaking of Nix, I would rather put my faith in Justin Herbert, who was among the most clutch QBs entering MNF in Sin City. After a slow start, he got into his rhythm, throwing 15 consecutive completions. The Chargers look dangerous on the ground and through the air and have the third-best offensive DVOA through two weeks. 

Meanwhile, the Broncos' defense showed some kinks in the armor in the head-scratching loss to the Indianapolis Colts. Most of the best sports betting apps have the Chargers -2.5 at standard juice of -110.

🔴 Chiefs (-5.5) vs. Giants ⭐⭐⭐⭐

What do you get when you place the Kansas City Chiefs in MetLife Stadium against the New York Giants after losing three in a row for the first time with Patrick Mahomes under center? 

We're about to find out, and I don't like the outlook for the G-Men. 

I expect a steely-focused, Hulk-like, angry version of the Chiefs. The former back-to-back champions have the pedigree and experience to harness that anger and turn it into productivity.

While there are currently more questions than answers for Any Reid's men, they have faced two of the league's best to start the season. 

Russell Wilson doesn't play nearly as well against man coverage, which Chiefs' defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo loves to deploy. Plus, it appears wide receiver Xavier Worthy will be set for a Week 3 return after missing most of the first two games. I'm expecting an emphatic bounce-back performance from the former champions.  

The line will probably increase to -6 at some point, so lock in the -5.5 while you still can. At -112, DraftKings is the sportsbook to place the wager. 

❓ NFL picks against the spread FAQs

What are the best NFL ATS picks this week?

My best ATS picks for Week 3 are: Chargers (-3.5), Chiefs (-5.5), Seahawks (-7). 

What does the ATS mean in NFL?

ATS in NFL betting stands for “against the spread.” It refers to how often a team covers the point spread in its games. Bettors use ATS records to track performance relative to expectations, not just wins and losses.

What does against the spread mean?

Against the spread (ATS) betting means wagering on whether a team will cover the point spread set by oddsmakers - not just win the game. The favorite must win by more than the spread, while the underdog can win outright or lose by fewer points than the spread.

How do NFL odds work?

When betting on NFL odds, the point spread shows how many points the favorite needs to win by in order to cash the bet. For example, a favorite of -3 must win by more than 3 points to cover the spread, while an underdog at +3 must win outright or lose by fewer than 3 points to cover the spread.

You can determine the payouts and implied probabilities for any wager - or convert odds to different formats - with our odds converter.  

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