NFL Picks Against the Spread: Best Bets & ATS Predictions for Week 1

Come along for the ride as we offer an ATS pick for every Week 1 tilt, including three featured games.

Gary Pearson

Last Updated: September 5, 2025 2:29 PM EDT • 6 minute read

It wasn't an ideal start for our NFL picks against the spread for Week 1, but we'll hope for better fortunes as the opening slate continues in Sao Paulo, Brazil, tonight between the Kansas City Chiefs and Los Angeles Chargers (8 p.m. ET, YouTube). We have NFL picks on every game to help bettors and those in football pools with their NFL predictions.

🏈 NFL picks against the spread: Week 1 ATS predictions

NFL picks against the spread based on the latest NFL odds and subject to change; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale.

Matchup	Pick	Confidence
Titans vs. Broncos (-7.5)	Broncos (-7.5)	⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
Bengals (-5.5) vs. Browns	Bengals (-5.5)	⭐⭐⭐⭐
Steelers (-2.5) vs. Jets	Steelers (-2.5)	⭐⭐⭐⭐
Cowboys vs. Eagles (-7.5)	Eagles (-7.5) ❌	⭐⭐⭐⭐
Chiefs (-3) vs. Chargers	Chiefs (-3)	⭐⭐⭐⭐
Panthers vs. Jaguars (-3.5)	Jaguars (-3.5)	⭐⭐⭐⭐
Ravens vs. Bills (-1.5)	Ravens (+1.5)	⭐⭐⭐⭐
Texans vs. Rams (-3)	Texans (+3)	⭐⭐⭐
Giants vs. Commanders (-6.5)	Commanders (-6.5)	⭐⭐⭐
Raiders vs. Patriots (-2.5)	Patriots (-2.5)	⭐⭐⭐
Cardinals (-6.5) vs. Saints	Cardinals (-6.5)	⭐⭐⭐
Buccaneers (-2.5) vs. Falcons	Buccaneers (-2.5)	⭐⭐⭐
49ers (-2.5) vs. Seahawks	49ers (-2.5)	⭐⭐⭐
Lions vs. Packers (-2.5)	Lions (+2.5)	⭐⭐⭐
Vikings (-1.5) vs. Bears	Bears (+1.5)	⭐⭐⭐
Dolphins vs. Colts (-1.5)	Dolphins (+1.5)	⭐⭐

💰 My best Week 1 ATS picks

Track the latest NFL scores for line movement and matchup info.

⚔️ Titans vs. Broncos (-7.5) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

With No. 1 draft pick and Offensive Rookie of the Year odds contender Cam Ward under center, I have no doubt the Tennessee Titans will be a far better team this season. It's a low bar, of course, after the Titans endured a 2-15 ATS record last season.

However, there are few prospects more daunting for a rookie signal caller than playing your first regular-season contest in the Mile High City against a Denver Broncos defense that last season had the joint-third-best defensive EPA and the fourth-best defensive DVOA.

The defense will probably be even better this season, an ominous prospect for Ward and Co.

The Broncos were 6-2 ATS at home last season and 5-0 down the stretch. It was clear that the lightbulb turned on for Bo Nix, who consistently executed Sean Payton's game plan to a tee, particularly at Empower Field.

The Broncos were also impressive as favorites of at least 5.5 points at home, finishing with a perfect 3-0 record.

DraftKings and FanDuel offer -7.5 at -115 odds, while the rest of the best sports betting sites have the spread at -8, offering the standard -110 juice. I'm going with the half-point buffer at DraftKings.

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🐯 Bengals (-5.5) vs. Browns ⭐⭐⭐⭐

While the Cincinnati Bengals are renowned for coming out of the gates as slow as a tortoise on sedatives, head coach Zac Taylor did everything in his power during the preseason to reverse that trend. Along with his starters getting stuck in, Joe Burrow is healthy, and Ja'Marr Chase has no off-field distractions.

That's bad news for a Cleveland Browns team that finished last season with a 4-13 ATS record, including 0-2 against the Bengals.

Cincinnati has won the previous three meetings with Cleveland by an average of 14 points, including a seven-point victory at Huntington Bank Field last season.

FanDuel offers the best odds (-105), with bet365 and BetMGM's -110 on the low end of the market.

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🏗️ Steelers (-2.5) vs. Jets ⭐⭐⭐⭐

I'll preface this pick by stating unequivocally that this is not an endorsement of the Pittsburgh Steelers this season.

However, I love the matchup for Aaron Rodgers, who ranks 14th in Gary Pearson's NFL clutch ratings. While the 41-year-old has nothing left to prove, he'll be hellbent on getting one over on a Jets team from whom he was forced to jettison. That scenario should elicit the best from the wily veteran.

Meanwhile, the Steelers are acutely aware of what's in Justin Fields' locker. The less experienced quarterback won't have the same ability to overcome Pittsburgh's intricate knowledge of how he plays. And despite the Steelers' defensive issues in the latter stages of last season, the unit still finished with the eighth-best defensive DVOA.

And then there's Mike Tomlin's ATS record in tight spreads.

The Steelers' head coach went 7-3 ATS last season when the spread was 3 points or fewer. FanDuel again offers the best price, offering -115 odds. bet365 and Caesars offer -120, while DraftKings and BetMGM have the Steelers favored by three.

💡 NFL expert picks for Week 1

❓ NFL picks against the spread FAQs

What are the best NFL ATS picks this week?

My best ATS spread picks are the Broncos (-7.5), Bengals (-5.5), and Steelers (-2.5).

What does the ATS mean in NFL?

ATS in NFL betting stands for “against the spread.” It refers to how often a team covers the point spread in its games. Bettors use ATS records to track performance relative to expectations, not just wins and losses.

What does against the spread mean?

Against the spread (ATS) betting means wagering on whether a team will cover the point spread set by oddsmakers - not just win the game. The favorite must win by more than the spread, while the underdog can win outright or lose by fewer points than the spread.

How do NFL odds work?

When betting on NFL odds, the point spread shows how many points the favorite needs to win by in order to cash the bet. For example, a favorite of -3 must win by more than 3 points to cover the spread, while an underdog at +3 must win outright or lose by fewer than 3 points to cover the spread.

You can determine the payouts and implied probabilities for any wager - or convert odds to different formats - with our odds converter.

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Written by:
Gary Pearson

Gary Pearson has written professionally since 2010, focusing on sports betting since 2014. Before entering the sports betting space, he contributed to the Canadian Press, FanSided, the Hockey Writers, the Calgary Herald, and other publications. His work and NFL experience has also been featured in Sports Illustrated and Bleacher Report. Gary, who consumes sports like a blue whale devours plankton, has a penchant for writing predictions and analyses across several sports, including hockey, soccer, football, tennis, and more. He bets regularly, preferring single-game picks, props, and live betting. While there isn't a sport he has yet to dabble in, Gary prefers betting on soccer, hockey, and football. He studied at various post-secondary institutions, including the University of Calgary, SAIT Polytechnic, and Griffith University, located in Brisbane, Australia. Gary has a marketing degree and completed his bachelor's degree in journalism at Griffith University. He feels strongly that life experience is as essential as post-secondary education, helping formulate more accurate predictions and analyses. Gary believes that competing at a high level of amateur sports during his formative years helped him better understand an athlete's psyche and the nuances and complexities of a team's dynamic, both on and off the playing surface. He feels that knowledge is immeasurably important when offering his analytical expertise. He has lived on five continents and currently resides in Canada.