Patriots vs. Broncos Predictions: Best Odds at Prediction Markets

One Super Bowl team will be determined on Sunday during the AFC Championship Game from EmPower Field at Mile High at 3 p.m. ET, and I'm examining the matchup in my Patriots vs. Broncos predictions. New England enters as the -4.5 road favorite.

Let's look at the best odds from prediction markets as part of our conference championship predictions.

💰 Patriots vs. Broncos predictions

🆚 Who will win Patriots vs. Broncos at prediction markets?

Prediction market via Kalshi. You can use our Kalshi promo code for a $10 bonus by signing up today. Market subject to change.

There's a clear lean in his prediction market, with the Patriots trading at 69%, and the Broncos far down at 33%. The Price for "yes" on New England rests at 69 cents, and it's down at 33 cents for Denver.

Our odds converter reveals the price for the Patriots converts to -222, with the Broncos at +202.

Patriots vs. Broncos prediction: Patriots

See all of our NFL picks throughout the playoffs.

It's fun to get wrapped up in an underdog and/or unexpected hero narrative while believing Broncos backup quarterback Jarrett Stidham could do his best Nick Foles impression and lead Denver to an upset.

But even if the Broncos minimize the lifting from Stidham, it's difficult to imagine a quarterback who hasn't thrown a regular-season pass since 2023 thriving against a Patriots defense that allowed the fourth-fewest points per game this campaign (18.8). New England also gave up the sixth-fewest yards to wide receivers, raising the challenge further if Denver falls behind early.

⚖️ Patriots vs. Broncos spread & Over/Under at prediction markets

Our prediction: Patriots -3.5, Under 43.5

This should be a tight affair despite the presence of Stidham, with both teams fielding imposing defenses. The Patriots can still cover while leaning on their sixth-ranked rushing offense, and that clock-grinding approach is what makes the Under so appealing.

The Broncos held the opposition to 15 points or fewer seven times this season, and the Patriots did so eight times, including during the wild-card round.

🙌 Patriots vs. Broncos props at prediction markets

Kalshi offers a wide range of props on every game, including team totals, player touchdowns, receptions, and passing, rushing, and receiving yards on all notable skill players. Simply choose the market of your liking, select your desired player and prop line and make your pick on Yes or No.

Patriots vs. Broncos touchdown scorer props at prediction markets

💰 Patriots vs. Broncos touchdown prediction: Hunter Henry to score anytime touchdown (32%)

For all their defensive prowess in nearly every regard, the Broncos can struggle to defend tight ends. Denver gave up the ninth-most receiving yards to the position during the regular season.

That makes Sunday's game the ideal matchup for Hunter Henry, who's getting hot at the right time. He's scored three times in his last five games, including a touchdown to go along with 64 receiving yards during the wild-card round.

What is Kalshi and how does it work?

Kalshi is a U.S.-regulated prediction market exchange, overseen by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, where you trade on the outcome of real-world events by buying and selling simple contracts that pay out $1 if a specific result happens and $0 if it does not. Think of it like betting with a stock-market-style order book instead of a sportsbook. For example, in an NFL-style market, there could be a contract asking whether the Buffalo Bills will win the Super Bowl. If you think they will, you might buy a “Yes” contract at 35 cents, which implies a 35 percent chance. If the Bills win, that contract settles at $1, meaning you make 65 cents per contract. If they lose, it settles at $0. Prices move based on supply and demand as traders buy and sell, so the market itself reflects the crowd’s collective probability. Unlike traditional betting, you can sell your position early to lock in profit or cut losses, and the focus is on forecasting outcomes rather than beating a fixed house line.

How does Kalshi differ from sportsbooks?

Kalshi differs from sportsbooks because you are trading against other users in an open market, not betting against a house that sets and moves the line. Prices are driven by supply and demand, you can exit positions early by selling, and odds are expressed as probabilities in cents rather than traditional spreads or moneylines. Sportsbooks, by contrast, offer fixed wagers with built-in vig and no ability to trade once the bet is placed.

Why should I wager on Patriots vs. Broncos at Kalshi?

Kalshi offers four unique advantages over traditional sportsbooks:

• Flexibility: Unlike a "locked-in" bet, you can sell your contract at any time.
• Transparency: You trade against other users, which can allow you to find better value.
• Federal regulation: As a CFTC-regulated exchange, your funds are held in a secure, transparent environment.
• Availability: Kalshi is available in many regions where traditional sportsbooks aren't yet legal.