Patriots vs. Broncos Prediction & Opening Odds: AFC Championship Preview, Expert Pick
New England looks to maintain its perfect road record in Sunday's AFC Championship Game from Empower Field at Mile High (3 p.m. ET, CBS), and I'm backing Drake Maye and Co. to do precisely that in my Patriots vs. Broncos prediction.
The Patriots are the early 4.5-point betting favorite, thanks mainly to Denver's situation at quarterback, with Jarrett Stidham set to start his first playoff game. The daunting proposition for the 29-year-old career backup, along with New England's improved defense, are two primary reasons I expect Mike Vrabel's team to cover the spread and advance to the franchise's first Super Bowl in seven years.
🏈 Patriots vs. Broncos early prediction: AFC Championship
See the latest NFL odds and our experts' NFL picks for every game this season.
Patriots -4.5 (-110) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
The Patriots' defense is markedly better than their 23rd-ranked DVOA suggests. It hasn't allowed more than 16 points in the previous four games, including conceding 19 in two playoff games.
The weather, of course, contributed to their Divisional Round success. Still, it's an underrated unit that will be licking its lips at the prospect of facing Stidham, who hasn't started a game in over two years and has never been under center during the playoffs.
While Denver's fifth-ranked defensive DVOA can keep it close, New England's clear offensive superiority should secure a win of at least 5 points. That hits home even more emphatically, considering their 8-0 road record.
🐎 What is Jarrett Stidham up against in AFC Championship?
So, who is the Broncos' backup QB, and what is he up against in next weekend's AFC Championship? First off, it doesn't help that he's facing Maye, one of two players vying for regular-season MVP and one of the front-runners to win Super Bowl MVP.
Since 2003, QBs in their playoff debut are 29-47 ATS, for a 38% cover rate. I argue that stat becomes even more ominous considering the importance and gravity of the situation. However, if anyone can set him up for success, it's Denver head coach Sean Payton.
He had success with backup Jameis Winston early in his career, who won five of seven under Payton's stewardship, while Teddy Bridgewater went 5-1.
📊 Patriots vs. Broncos odds: AFC Championship
These Divisional Round odds are via FanDuel, one of the best sports betting apps. NFL analysis and expert predictions cover every game this postseason.
| Moneyline | Spread | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Patriots | -250 | -4.5 (-115) | O40.5 (-110) |
| Broncos | +205 | +4.5 (-105) | U40.5 (-110) |
Patriots vs. Broncos opening odds
- Moneyline: Patriots -300 | Broncos +240
- Spread: Patriots -4.5 (-110) | Broncos +4.5 (-110)
- Over/Under: Over 40.5 (-110) | Under 40.5 (-110)
Patriots vs. Broncos line movement
The odds at the best sports betting sites opened with the Patriots as the 4.5-point betting favorite despite playing on the road.
That's due to the Broncos' quarterback situation, with Stidham set to start his first playoff game. I envision the spread increasing in the lead-up to the game, possibly ending as high as Patriots -5.5.
📈 Patriots vs. Broncos trends & betting notes: AFC Championship
- The Patriots have allowed fewer than 20 points in four straight
- New England is 7-1 ATS on the road and 8-0 SU
- Denver is 6-4 ATS at home
- Stidham has never started a playoff game, with his previous regular-season start occurring at the end of the 2023 season
- Stidham 1-3 as a starter since entering the league in 2019
📺 How to watch Patriots vs. Broncos: AFC Championship
- Date: Sunday, Jan. 25
- Kickoff: 3 p.m. ET
- Location: Empower Field at Mile High (Denver)
- TV: CBS
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