Patriots vs. Broncos Prediction, Odds & Best Bet: Maye To Win The Day in AFC Championship

Drake Maye has proven time and again his ability to maintain the composure of a QB five years his elder, and I expect the same level of poise as I offer my Patriots vs. Broncos prediction.

Gary Pearson

Last Updated: February 9, 2026 5:51 AM EST • 3 minute read

Pictured: Drake Maye leaves the field as we offer our Patriots vs. Broncos prediction, odds and best bet. Photo by Brian Fluharty via Imagn Images

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New England will put its immaculate road record on the line when it faces Denver at Empower Field at Mile High in Sunday's AFC Championship (3 p.m. ET, CBS), as I analyze why in my Patriots vs. Broncos prediction Mike Vrabel's team will cover.

The Patriots are back down to the 4.5-point betting favorite after spending much of the week at -5.5. It looks like a fair few people are expecting career backup Jarrett Stidham to execute Sean Payton's game plan seamlessly. Personally, I think Drake Maye and his much-improved defense will do the business. This analysis is part of the Conference Championship predictions.

🏈 Patriots vs. Broncos early prediction: AFC Championship

See the latest NFL odds and our experts' NFL picks for every game this season.

Patriots -4.5 (-110) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

The Patriots' defense is markedly better than their 23rd-ranked DVOA suggests. It hasn't allowed more than 16 points in the previous four games, including conceding 19 in two playoff games.

The weather, of course, contributed to their Divisional Round success. Still, it's an underrated unit that will be licking its lips at the prospect of facing Stidham, who hasn't started a game in over two years and has never been under center during the playoffs.

While Denver's fifth-ranked defensive DVOA can keep it close, New England's clear offensive superiority should secure a win of at least 5 points. That hits home even more emphatically, considering their 8-0 road record.

🤔 Can the Pats go all the way?

I explored what it will take for the Patriots to lift the Lombardi Trophy in my Super Bowl 2026 winner pick.

🐎 What is Jarrett Stidham up against in AFC Championship?

So, who is the Broncos' backup QB, and what is he up against in next weekend's AFC Championship? First off, it doesn't help that he's facing Maye, one of two players vying for regular-season MVP and one of the Super Bowl MVP odds front-runners.

Since 2003, QBs in their playoff debut are 29-47 ATS, for a 38% cover rate. I argue that stat becomes even more ominous considering the importance and gravity of the situation. However, if anyone can set him up for success, it's Denver head coach Sean Payton.

He had success with backup Jameis Winston early in his career, who won five of seven under Payton's stewardship, while Teddy Bridgewater went 5-1. Our Corey Scott explored the Jarrett Stidham Super Bowl MVP odds and whether or not he's worth a futures bet.

We also took a deeper dive on how backup QBs have fared in the conference championships and Super Bowl.

📊 Patriots vs. Broncos odds: AFC Championship

Patriots vs. Broncos odds update live in real time. Our NFL analysis and expert predictions cover every game this postseason.

Patriots vs. Broncos opening odds

Moneyline: Patriots -300 | Broncos +240
Spread: Patriots -4.5 (-110) | Broncos +4.5 (-110)
Over/Under: Over 40.5 (-110) | Under 40.5 (-110)

Patriots vs. Broncos line movement

The odds at the best sports betting sites opened with the Patriots as the 4.5-point betting favorite despite playing on the road.

That's due to the Broncos' quarterback situation, with Stidham set to start his first playoff game. I envision the spread increasing in the lead-up to the game, possibly ending as high as Patriots -5.5.

📈 Patriots vs. Broncos trends & betting notes: AFC Championship

The Patriots have allowed fewer than 20 points in four straight
New England is 7-1 ATS on the road and 8-0 SU
Denver is 6-4 ATS at home
Stidham has never started a playoff game, with his previous regular-season start occurring at the end of the 2023 season
Stidham 1-3 as a starter since entering the league in 2019
The Patriots have the third-shortest Super Bowl odds

📺 How to watch Patriots vs. Broncos: AFC Championship

Date: Sunday, Jan. 25
Kickoff: 3 p.m. ET
Location: Empower Field at Mile High (Denver)
TV: CBS

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Written by:
Gary Pearson

Gary Pearson has written professionally since 2010, focusing on sports betting since 2014. Gary, who consumes sports like a blue whale devours plankton, specializes in writing about the NFL, hockey, and soccer, focusing on player props, game predictions, and futures plays. Most often utilizing FanDuel and bet365, the latter of which usually provides better early odds, he looks for a perfect-storm combo of in-form players who fare historically well against the opponent in question. He has contributed to the Canadian Press, FanSided, The Hockey Writers, The Hockey News, The Calgary Herald, and other publications. He studied at various post-secondary institutions, including the University of Calgary, SAIT Polytechnic, and Griffith University, located in Brisbane, Australia. Gary has a bachelor's degree in journalism from Griffith University.