Patriots vs. Bills Prediction: Sunday Night Football Opening Odds & Early SNF Picks
My early Patriots vs. Bills prediction analyzes whether Buffalo will extend the NFL’s longest active home winning streak (currently 13 games) when it hosts its AFC East rivals at Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park, N.Y.
The Bills range from an 8.5 to 9.5-point betting favorite with kickoff set for 8:20 p.m. ET, and my NFL picks back the Bills to cover anything less than a double-digit point spread. It’s all part of our NFL predictions for Week 5.
🏈 Early Patriots vs. Bills prediction & best bet
Stay ahead with the rest of our early NFL predictions for [Week X].
🦬 Bills -8.5 (-115) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Buffalo is off to its first 4-0 start since 2020, when it finished 13-3. That's one reason why they feature the shortest Super Bowl odds through four weeks.
Though it is the only remaining unbeaten AFC team, it has failed to cover two double-digit point spreads over the last two weeks. Josh Allen has now failed to cover a double-digit point spread in nine consecutive starts, which is why I am rushing to grab the Bills at this number in case the line escalates.
Buffalo is certainly not in danger of losing this game outright, as Allen is now 28-2 SU in his career as a favorite of at least 8.5 points. I am also not buying much into New England’s 42-13 rout of Carolina, as Panthers quarterback Bryce Young’s 25 losses are the most by any quarterback since he entered the NFL in 2023.
BetMGM and DraftKings are the only one of the best sports betting sites still offering a spread of -8.5 as of this writing, while all others are at -9 or higher. That justifies paying up slightly for these 53.49% implied odds, and a $10 winning wager at a -115 price would net $8.70 in profits.
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📺️ How to watch Sunday Night Football
Matchup: Patriots vs. Bills
When: Sunday, Oct. 5 @ 8:20 p.m. ET
Where: Highmark Stadium (Orchard Park, N.Y.)
TV: NBC
📊 Patriots vs. Bills odds: Sunday Night Football
Latest NFL odds updated live in real time.
📈 Patriots vs. Bills opening odds
- Moneyline: Patriots +300 | Bills -375
- Spread: Patriots +8.5 (-110) | Bills -8.5 (-110)
- Over/Under: Over 46.5 (-110) | Under 46.5 (-110)
💡 Patriots vs. Bills odds analysis
Though the Bills opened as 8.5-point favorites after the Week 4 results were known, that is still down from last week’s lookahead line that saw Buffalo as a 10-point favorite.
Oddsmakers likely know they would have been flooded with Patriots money at +10 given the Bills’ struggles as double-digit favorites, and New England has covered the spread (with two outright wins) in the last four games against Buffalo.
The O/U skyrocketed from an opening number of 46.5 to 49.5, while DraftKings is alone as the only top sports betting app at 50.5. That is a direct reaction to Buffalo scoring 30-plus points for the fourth straight game, while New England is coming off its highest point total (42) since 2021.
The total will likely come down some if Buffalo gets two key defensive starters back this week (Ed Oliver and Matt Milano). Thus, I expect there to be a greater chance that DraftKings lowers its total and aligns with the rest of the market than the total going north of 50 at most shops.
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