Patriots vs. Bills Prediction: Early Sunday Night Football Odds & SNF Picks
Our NFL predictions for Week 5 continue with my early Patriots vs. Bills prediction.
My NFL picks back Buffalo to cover the 8.5-point spread and extend the NFL's longest active home winning streak at Highmark Stadium. This Sunday Night Football matchup gets underway at 8:20 p.m. ET (NBC) in Orchard Park, N.Y.
🏈 Early Patriots vs. Bills prediction & best bet
Stay ahead with the rest of our early NFL predictions for Week 5.
🦬 Bills -8.5 (-115) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Buffalo is off to its first 4-0 start since 2020, when it finished 13-3. That's one reason why they feature the shortest Super Bowl odds through four weeks.
Though it is the only remaining unbeaten AFC team, it has failed to cover two double-digit point spreads over the last two weeks. Josh Allen has now failed to cover a double-digit point spread in nine consecutive starts, which is why I am rushing to grab the Bills at this number in case the line escalates.
Buffalo is certainly not in danger of losing this game outright, as Allen is now 28-2 SU in his career as a favorite of at least 8.5 points. I am also not buying much into New England’s 42-13 rout of Carolina, as Panthers quarterback Bryce Young’s 25 losses are the most by any quarterback since he entered the NFL in 2023.
BetMGM and DraftKings are the only best sports betting sites still offering a spread of -8.5 as of this writing, while all others are at -9 or higher. That justifies paying up slightly for these 53.49% implied odds, and a $10 winning wager at a -115 price would net $8.70 in profits.
📊 Patriots vs. Bills odds: Sunday Night Football
Latest NFL odds updated live in real time.
📈 Patriots vs. Bills opening odds
- Moneyline: Patriots +300 | Bills -375
- Spread: Patriots +8.5 (-110) | Bills -8.5 (-110)
- Over/Under: Over 46.5 (-110) | Under 46.5 (-110)
💡 Patriots vs. Bills odds analysis
Though the Bills opened as 8.5-point favorites after the Week 4 results were known, that is still down from last week’s lookahead line that saw Buffalo as a 10-point favorite.
Oddsmakers likely know they would have been flooded with Patriots money at +10 given the Bills’ struggles as double-digit favorites, and New England has covered the spread (with two outright wins) in the last four games against Buffalo.
The O/U skyrocketed from an opening number of 46.5 to 49.5, while DraftKings is alone as the only top sports betting app at 50.5. That is a direct reaction to Buffalo scoring 30-plus points for the fourth straight game, while New England is coming off its highest point total (42) since 2021.
The total will likely come down some if Buffalo gets two key defensive starters back this week (Ed Oliver and Matt Milano). Thus, I expect there to be a greater chance that DraftKings lowers its total and aligns with the rest of the market than the total going north of 50 at most shops.
How to watch Sunday Night Football
- Matchup: Patriots vs. Bills
- When: Sunday, Oct. 5
- Time: 8:20 p.m. ET
- Where: Highmark Stadium (Orchard Park, N.Y.)
- TV: NBC
💡 NFL Week 5 predictions
- 49ers vs. Rams prediction
- Vikings vs. Browns prediction
- Patriots vs. Bills prediction
- Chiefs vs. Jaguars prediction
📃 Affiliate disclosure
Each betting site featured on SBR has been meticulously researched and selected by our team of experts. If you sign up through our links, we may get a commission.
Not intended for use in MA. Bonuses not applicable in Ontario.
(21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER)
Related Articles
