Patriots vs. Bills Player Props: Sunday Night Football Week 5

My Patriots vs. Bills player props and NFL picks will have you set for a battle between the bitter AFC East rivals on Sunday Night Football. Kickoff from Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park, N.Y., is at 8:20 p.m. ET (NBC).

The undefeated Bills (4-0) range from an 8- to 8.5-point betting favorite, and as you’ll see, I’m calling for Buffalo quarterback Josh Allen and tight end Dalton Kincaid to deliver in a big way with two of my SNF prop bets, which are part of our NFL predictions for Week 5.

🏈 Patriots vs. Bills player props: Sunday Night Football

NFL player prop bets for Sunday Night Football; NFL odds subject to change.

• Drake Maye Over 27.5 rushing yards (-120 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
• Josh Allen Over 225.5 passing yards (-114 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐
• Dalton Kincaid to score anytime TD (+230 via bet365) ⭐⭐

💰 Patriots vs. Bills player prop bets: Sunday Night Football

Our NFL player prop odds tool shows the best odds for every market across legal sportsbooks in your area.

⬆️  Drake Maye Over 27.5 rushing yards (-120) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

The Bills might be undefeated, but it’s not because their defense has been stuffing the run. Buffalo is allowing 164.2 rushing yards per game; only Chicago (164.5) is worse. The Bills have had a particularly difficult time containing quarterbacks, surrendering 70 yards to Baltimore Ravens QB Lamar Jackson and 49 yards to both Justin Fields of the Chicago Bears and the New Orleans Saints' Spencer Rattler. In all, QBs are averaging 9 yards per rush against Buffalo.

The Patriots’ Drake Maye isn’t fleet of foot, but he is a capable scrambler. He’s run the ball 24 times and compiled 98 rushing yards, with highs of 31 against Miami and 45 versus Pittsburgh. If Maye takes off at least a half-dozen carries, he’ll beat this projection.

BetMGM has the best number on this Patriots vs. Bills player prop. At -120, the implied win probability is 54.55%, and a $10 wager would pay out $7.41.

⬆️  Josh Allen Over 225.5 passing yards (-114) ⭐⭐⭐

Josh Allen shredded Baltimore’s horrendous secondary for 394 yards in the Bills’ miraculous Sunday Night Football comeback victory in Week 1. Since then, however, the reigning NFL MVP hasn’t been airing it out much. Allen’s pass attempts in the past three weeks: 25, 28, and 22. His yardage totals: 148, 213, and 209.

Needless to say, Allen is overdue for a monster passing performance — especially considering he hasn’t thrown for fewer than 230 yards in four straight games since early in the 2019 season (his second year). And especially since Allen will be facing a New England secondary that gave up 362 yards to Geno Smith and 315 yards to Tua Tagovailoa.

Throw in absolutely perfect weather conditions, and we’ll roll with this Patriots vs. Bills player prop at FanDuel. The -114 odds carry a 53.27% implied win probability, with a $10 wager potentially returning $8.77.

Esten McLaren's Patriots vs. Bills anytime touchdown scorer predictions also expect a big passing game for Allen.

🔥  Dalton Kincaid to score anytime TD (+230) ⭐⭐

It has taken Bills tight end Dalton Kincaid just four games to set a new career high in touchdowns. The 2023 first-round pick hauled in scoring receptions in Week 1 against Baltimore, Week 3 against Miami, and Week 4 against New Orleans. Those three TDs lead all Buffalo pass catchers.

Kincaid also ranks third on the team in receptions (14) and targets (18), which means he’s got the full trust of quarterback Josh Allen. Now I expect the duo to exploit a Patriots secondary that surrendered touchdowns to two Carolina tight ends a week ago - and those tight ends are second and third on the Panthers’ depth chart.

For the best price on this Sunday Night Football player prop, head to bet365, where a winning $10 wager would net $23 in profit. Implied win probability on this one: 30.30%.

📊 Patriots vs. Bills odds: Sunday Night Football

Latest Sunday Night Football odds updated live in real time.

📺️ How to watch Sunday Night Football

• Matchup: Patriots vs. Bills
• When: Sunday, Oct. 5
• Time: 8:20 p.m. ET
• Where: Highmark Stadium (Orchard Park, N.Y.)
• TV: NBC