Packers vs. Lions Prediction & Odds for Thanksgiving: NFL Week 13 Betting Preview
My Packers vs. Lions prediction for the Thanksgiving matchup at Ford Field in Detroit (1 p.m. ET, FOX) expects Green Bay to successfully defend Jahmyr Gibbs for the second time this season.
The Lions are the 2.5-point betting favorite for the high-stakes NFC North clash, and my analysis below, part of the Week 13 NFL predictions, also features a Gibbs player prop.
✅ Packers vs. Lions prediction & expert picks
See all of our experts' NFL picks for Week 13.
💵 Best Packers vs. Lions bets
- Game prediction: Packers +2.5 (-102 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐
- Over/Under pick: Over 48.5 (-115 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐
- Best prop bet: Jahmyr Gibbs Under 74.5 rushing yards (-111 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐
🏈 Thanksgiving preview & score prediction
While the Lions have the sixth-best offensive DVOA, John Morton's unit has been disproportionately over-reliant on Gibbs in recent weeks. Gibbs scored two touchdowns in each of the Lions' last three wins while averaging 166 rushing yards.
Even in the away loss to the Philadelphia Eagles, Gibbs accounted for 54% of the Lions' total offensive yards.
The Packers have the ninth-best run defense, via EPA per play, allow the fifth-fewest yards per attempt (tied with three teams) and were responsible for Gibbs' worst rushing game of the season. He had just 19 yards on nine attempts in the 27-13 Week 1 defeat to the Packers.
Gibbs' second-worst performance came at home in Week 9 against the Minnesota Vikings, which also ended in defeat.
If the Packers can again nullify Gibbs' time and space, it could be a frustrating evening for a Lions offense that has struggled recently to find alternative answers.
In addition, Detroit's perceived aura of invincibility at Ford Field looked shaky in the last two weeks, with Dan Campbell's team escaping embarrassment against the New York Giants while allowing 27 points in the previous game to a Vikings team that hadn't scored that many since Week 3.
Of the best sports betting sites, BetMGM provides the best value (-102). Those odds imply a 50.50% probability, and a winning $10 bet will profit $9.80.
Score prediction: Packers 27, Lions 24
💡 More Week 13 predictions
Want more NFL betting advice? Check out all of our NFL analysis and expert predictions for every game in Week 13.
🆚 Key matchup to watch on Thanksgiving
Gibbs vs. Packers defense
I'm backing the Packers to frustrate Gibbs for the second time this season. Green Bay's defensive game plan will likely focus on preventing the Lions' superstar from breaking it open and gaining chunk yards. If successful, they will force Detroit to find alternative solutions.
Gibbs went under 74.5 rushing yards in four of the previous seven games and six of 11 overall.
BetMGM and bet365 offer the highest total of 74.5 yards, with the latter providing marginally better value. bet365's -111 odds imply a 52.61% probability, and a winning $10 bet will profit $9.01.
At the low end of the market, FanDuel offers the lowest total (69.5 yards) at -114 odds.
Best prop bet: Jahmyr Gibbs Under 74.5 rushing yards (-111 via bet365)
📊 Packers vs. Lions odds
See live NFL odds for every game in Week 13.
🔍️ Find the best odds for every bet
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📈 Packers vs. Lions betting trends
| Packers | Statistic | Lions |
|---|---|---|
| 7-3-1 | W-L record | 7-4 |
| 4-7 | ATS record | 6-5 |
| 5-6 | O/U record | 6-5 |
| 5.6 | Yards per play | 6.1 |
| 4.6 | Yards allowed per play | 5.1 |
| +0.5 | Turnover margin | +0.5 |
| 3-2 | Last 5 games | 3-2 |
| W, 23-6 vs. Vikings | Previous result | W, 34-27 vs. Lions |
🚑 Packers vs. Lions injury report
🌤️ Packers vs. Lions weather
Weather won't play a factor as Ford Field is an indoor stadium.
Check our NFL weather report for the latest forecasts and betting impacts for every game this week.
📺 How to watch Packers vs. Lions
- Date: Thursday, Nov. 27
- Kickoff: 1 p.m. ET
- Location: Ford Field (Detroit)
- TV: FOX
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