Packers vs. Lions Picks, Predictions Week 9: Back Lions in High-Scoring Affair
Can the Detroit Lions’ dominant offense at home keep humming against the rival Green Bay Packers in Week 9? Read on for our top Packers-Lions picks and predictions.
The Packers would normally enter a game in Detroit expecting to win by at least 20 points. Well, at 3-5, and 1-3 on the road, they’re short 3.5-point favorites against the Lions. Green Bay is banged up and not playing well.
The Lions haven’t played defense all year and are just 1-6, but they’ve managed to run up the score at home. That might continue, even with the Packers’ solid defensive unit.
Here are our Packers-Lions NFL football picks for Week 9 (odds via PointsBet, FanDuel Sportsbook, BetMGM; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Check out our NFL best bets and all of our top picks for Week 9!
Packers vs. Lions Game Info
Date: Sunday, Nov. 6, 1 p.m. ET
TV: FOX
Location: Ford Field, Detroit, MI
Weather: Indoors
Packers vs. Lions Odds
Packers vs. Lions Odds Analysis
The Packers opened up as 3.5-point favorites and haven't moved. Currently, 68% of the cash and 64% of the tickets have come in on Green Bay.
However, the total has been shifting. It was initially offered at 48.5 but is now up to 49.5 across the board. The Over is getting 56% of the cash and 73% of the tickets.
Packers vs. Lions Picks
- Spread: Lions +3.5 (-105 via PointsBet) ★★★★★
- Over/Under: Over 49.5 (-110 via FanDuel) ★★★★★
- Prop: Aaron Rodgers over 263.5 pass yds (-115 via BetMGM) ★★★★
Packers vs. Lions ATS Pick
Lions +3.5 (-105) ★★★★★
I’m going to listen to what the money is doing. The sharps are all over Detroit here, with the public on Green Bay, hence the lack of any line movement.
Things are simply very bleak for the Packers. Christian Watson will likely miss this game with a concussion, and Allen Lazard will likely miss again as well. On top of that, Aaron Rodgers is has been limited in practice due to a thumb injury which he picked up in the Bills game.
This team is a shell of itself and it seems unlikely things will turn soon. The Packers rank 26th in scoring offense and 26th in yards per pass. It’s nothing like the team we remember.
Detroit hasn’t been great defensively, but it has been slightly better against the run according to DVOA. The Lions are also not really being run on at all, at just a 46.6% clip, which says a lot about how bad their secondary is. That might influence the Packers to throw, which would be excellent.
The Lions are quietly fourth in yards per rush and ninth in scoring offense. They will hang points on the Packers.
Packers vs. Lions O/U Pick
Over 49.5 (-110) ★★★★★
The Lions are 5-2 to the Over this season, and despite the Packers’ flat offense and inability to run things up enough to cash more than three Overs in their eight games, I’m a believer this game will be high-scoring.
The Over is 4-0 in Lions home games, and it’s covered by 22.4 points on average. That’s a simply outrageous number and a testament to how good Jared Goff has been inside the dome. In Detroit this season, Goff has a 107.8 passer rating and is averaging 7.96 yards per attempt. He has 11 touchdowns and two picks. Green Bay may be ninth in DVOA against the pass but these are ludicrous numbers.
The Lions are seventh in seconds per play and should really take the pace of this game through the roof. It’s been a safe bet this year to back Detroit to score at home, and on the other side of the coin this secondary has been a special kind of bad. That could be enough to get us to this number.
Packers vs. Lions Prop Pick
Aaron Rodgers over 263.5 pass yards (-115) ★★★★
I know the Packers haven’t thrown the ball well. I know Rodgers is banged up and has some bad receivers around him. I simply can’t believe this number.
The Packers are going to throw the ball. This secondary is that bad. Carson Wentz threw for 337 yards against the Lions, for Pete’s sake. Geno Smith had 320 yards and Tua Tagovailoa had 382 just last week. Rodgers can get us to 264.
This is not a number he’s attained yet this season, but with the help of Aaron Jones catching passes out of the backfield I think Rodgers can gain plenty of yards against the worst secondary in football by DVOA.
Where to Bet on Packers-Lions Picks
Packers-Lions picks made 11/03/2022 at 9:33 p.m. ET
