Packers vs. Commanders Picks, Predictions Week 7: Fade Green Bay Once Again?
The Green Bay Packers stumble into Week 7 off of back-to-back losses but draw a favorable matchup against the Washington Commanders. Check out our top Packers-Commanders picks below.
Washington is coming off of a 12-7 victory over the Chicago Bears on Thursday Night Football in Week 6. The Commanders will hope the extra rest helps to inject some life into an offense that has been held to 17 or fewer points in each of its last four games.
Meanwhile, the Packers didn't look much more impressive in losses to the New York Giants in London, England, and the New York Jets at Lambeau Field. Back-to-back MVP QB Aaron Rodgers sits at just nine touchdown passes through six games.
Check out all of our top NFL picks for Week 7, as well as our best bets!
Here are our Packers-Commanders NFL football picks for Week 7 (odds via PointsBet, BetMGM; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Packers vs. Commanders Game Info
Date: Sunday, Oct. 23, 1 p.m. ET
TV: FOX
Location: FedExField, Landover, MD
Weather: 57 degrees, 17% precipitation, 10-mph winds
Packers vs. Commanders Odds
Packers vs. Commanders Odds Analysis
Bettors are in support of the Packers with 76% of the tickets and handle on the spread, but the consensus line has still dropped from 5.5 to 4.5 as of Sunday morning.
The Over/Under has also ticked down after opening at a consensus line of 43.5 As of Sunday morning, it sits at 41 with just 40% of the tickets but 54% of the handle backing the Under.
Packers vs. Commanders Picks
Spread: Commanders +4.5 (-105 via PointsBet) ★★★★
Over/Under: Under 45.5 (-110 via BetMGM) ★★★★
Prop: Aaron Rodgers Under 234.5 passing yards (-125 via BetMGM) ★★★★★
Packers vs. Commanders ATS Pick
Commanders +4.5 (-105) ★★★★
I think it’s about time we call the Packers what they are, and that’s a bad football team. They’re 24th in scoring offense and just 23rd in passing offense. Many have pointed to the fact that they’re a good team on the ground, and while that’s true with 4.7 yards per carry (12th) they’re running just 40.1% of the time.
If Matt LaFleur wants to lean on Aaron Jones a little more, this is not the week to start. Washington is fifth in DVOA against the run. While the Commanders are 19th against the pass, we should consider the fact that Green Bay has been terrible through the air, and now it has to play without Randall Cobb. Rodgers has no real chemistry with his pass-catchers, and was relying on Cobb in big spots. Now, he’s going to be incredibly pressed.
Washington’s strong defense should earn it a cover here. I have no faith in the Packers’ passing offense, and that’s what’s going to have to earn them the win here. While the Commanders struggle to move the ball, they did look better on the ground last week and will run into a Packers team that has allowed 4.9 yards per carry.
Packers vs. Commanders O/U Pick
Under 45.5 (-110) ★★★★
The Commanders have no real reason to pass in this game. They’re fifth in pass play rate, but just 21st in completion percentage and 28th in yards per pass.
As noted above, the Packers struggle to stop the run as well. They’re 27th in yards per game against on the ground, and on the flip side have been thrown on just 49.85% of the time, which ranks second-lowest in the league.
With a heavy dose of the run on the Washington side of things and a passing attack that has struggled mightily on the other, I think an under is in store here. After all, it’s cashed in four of Green Bay’s six games and in the the last four for Washington.
Packers vs. Commanders Prop Pick
Aaron Rodgers Under 234.5 passing yards (-125) ★★★★★
The Commanders have allowed just 221.5 yards per game, which is a respectable 15th in the league. Aaron Rodgers has been held under 235 yards on three occasions thus far. I don't believe he'll light it up on Sunday.
I think the combination of two factors, which we’ve noted, will diminish Rodgers’s line here. First off, missing Randall Cobb should really tank his performance. He’s struggled to connect with Amari Rodgers and Romeo Doubs thus far. I also think, given that injury and the success of the ground game, Green Bay should lean on the run for at least the first half here.
I don’t see Rodgers starting and ending the game by getting chunk plays through the air.
Where to Bet on Packers vs. Commanders Picks
Packers-Commanders picks made 10/21/2022 at 12 p.m. ET
