2026 NFL Draft Odds: Fernando Mendoza Emerges as Heavy Favorite to Go No. 1 Overall
With the Las Vegas Raiders locking up the No. 1 pick in April, Indiana's Fernando Mendoza is the overwhelming favorite by the 2026 NFL Draft odds to hear his name called first when the draft gets underway in Pittsburgh on April 23.
The Heisman winner has been the favorite for months and has only shortened his odds to go first (-900) after guiding Indiana to a College Football Playoff National Championship berth.
📊 Live 2026 NFL Draft odds
Our 2026 NFL Draft odds update in real time based on the odds from our top NFL betting sites.
🥇 Who is the favorite to go No. 1 in the 2026 NFL Draft?
Fernando Mendoza, QB, Indiana (-900)
In what is considered a weaker NFL draft class, Mendoza is the clear star of the show. The Cal transfer has helped Hoosiers head coach Curt Cignetti take Indiana to unprecedented heights on his way to winning the Heisman.
Mendoza leads college football touchdown passes (41) and QBR (90.2), while ranking in the top 10 in both big-time throw rate (6.6%) and adjusted completion rate (80.2%). And his chances to go No. 1 should only be helped by Raiders part-owner Tom Brady.
In December, Brady praised Mendoza, saying, "I love everything about his game." Mendoza is also a huge fan of Brady, calling him his "football idol."
With the Raiders going into a full rebuild, Mendoza is the obvious choice to lead the franchise, which is why his odds already imply a 90% probability he'll go No. 1 to Las Vegas.
Dante Moore, QB, Oregon (+900)
The only player worth considering betting on to go No. 1 outside of Mendoza is Oregon's Dante Moore.
While Moore lost to Mendoza's Hoosiers in both the regular season and CFP semifinal at the Peach Bowl, the Ducks triggerman is the clear-cut No. 2 QB in the draft.
Though just 20 years old, the former five-star recruit had a breakout season for Oregon, ranking top 10 in the country in TD passes (30), adjusted completion rate (80.3%), and big-time throw rate (6.9%).
However, I'd expect Mendoza to be the top pick, and Moore to open as a minus-money favorite to go No. 2 to the New York Jets when that betting market becomes available.
It's worth noting that there's speculation Moore could return to Oregon, with Nike co-founder Phil Knight's help.
Rueben Bain Jr., DL, Miami (+3500)
It's usually a bad bet to target a non-QB to go No. 1 in the NFL draft. But when it does happen, it's often because there's a freak pass rusher in a mediocre QB class.
Since 2014, nine quarterbacks have been selected No. 1 in the NFL draft ... the other three players to be selected first were all edge players (Travon Walker, Myles Garrett, and JD Clowney).
With that said, despite Rueben Bain Jr. being top two in the country in pressures (80) and leading Miami to a championship bid, he's more likely to go outside the top five than No. 1.
Bain's short arms are a major concern, and he's viewed as a potential tweener that could kick inside due to his size. Plus, when a QB wins the Heisman, like Mendoza, he often becomes a No. 1 pick.
A Heisman winner has been the top pick in eight of the last 16 drafts, including five of the last eight.
🔮 Early 2026 NFL Draft pick projections (top 5 outlook)
| Pick | Team | Player | Odds to go No. 1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Las Vegas Raiders | Fernando Mendoza, QB, Indiana | -900 |
| 2 | New York Jets | Dante Moore, QB, Oregon | +900 |
| 3 | Arizona Cardinals | Arvell Reese, LB, Ohio State | +5000 |
| 4 | Tennessee Titans | Carnell Tate, WR, Ohio State | +15000 |
| 5 | New York Giants | Spencer Fano, OT, Utah | +25000 |
📋 Current 2026 NFL Draft order
| Pick | Team | Record |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Las Vegas Raiders | 3-14 |
| 2 | New York Jets | 3-14 |
| 3 | Arizona Cardinals | 3-14 |
| 4 | Tennessee Titans | 3-14 |
| 5 | New York Giants | 4-13 |
| 6 | Cleveland Browns | 5-12 |
| 7 | Washington Commanders | 5-12 |
| 8 | New Orleans Saints | 6-11 |
| 9 | Kansas City Chiefs | 6-11 |
| 10 | Cincinnati Bengals | 6-11 |
| 11 | Miami Dolphins | 7-10 |
| 12 | Dallas Cowboys | 7-9-1 |
| 13 | Los Angeles Rams (via Atlanta Falcons) | 8-9 |
| 14 | Baltimore Ravens | 8-9 |
| 15 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 8-9 |
| 16 | New York Jets (via Indianapolis Colts) | 8-9 |
| 17 | Detroit Lions | 9-8 |
| 18 | Minnesota Vikings | 9-8 |
| 19 | Carolina Panthers | 8-9 |
| 20 | Dallas Cowboys (via Green Bay Packers) | 9-7-1 |
| 21 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 10-7 |
| 22 | Los Angeles Chargers | 11-6 |
| 23 | Philadelphia Eagles | 11-6 |
| 24 | Cleveland Browns (via Jacksonville Jaguars) | 12-5 |
| 25 | Chicago Bears | 11-6 |
| 26 | Buffalo Bills | 12-5 |
| 27 | San Francisco 49ers | 12-5 |
| 28 | Houston Texans | 13-4 |
| 29 | Los Angeles Rams | 12-5 |
| 30 | New England Patriots | 14-3 |
| 31 | Denver Broncos | 14-3 |
| 32 | Seattle Seahawks | 14-3 |
📺 How to watch 2026 NFL Draft
- Date: April 23-25
- Location: Pittsburgh
- TV: NFL Network, ESPN
📃 Affiliate disclosure
Sportsbook Review may receive a commission if you sign up through our links. Not intended for use in MA. Bonuses not applicable in Ontario. 21+ only. (Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER)
Related Articles
